Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster is, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrestle glory from your league mates.
But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Our staff will make recommendations each week to aid in your lineup decision-making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur.
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- Changing the Call (QB): Jayson Snyder (@Spydes78)
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks)
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook)
- 12 Formation (TE): Ethan Wyatt (@ethanAwyatt)
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown (@FFEvanlution)
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser (@Glosser13)
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc. and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
About Last Week…
Previous Week Record: 4-0
Season Long Record: 33-15
Week 12 Starts:
Changing the Call enjoyed a rare clean sweep of the Week 12 slate. Even though the Seahawks unexpectedly struggled with (and were eventually upset by) the Raiders, Geno Smith still managed to deliver on his start recommendation. With 328 yards and a pair of touchdowns, Smith eclipsed 20 fantasy points, much to the delight of fantasy owners.
Similarly, the Ravens were also upset in their visit to Jacksonville. However, Lamar Jackson, by virtue of his trademark mobility, was able to post some big numbers on the day. Despite a turnover, his 23.1 fantasy points on the day had him ranked 8th overall among his quarterback peers. The end result may have been disappointing for Baltimore, but Lamar’s individual performance had plenty of fantasy enthusiasts in the win column.
Week 12 Sits:
The clairvoyance continued on the sit side. Tennessee struggled to find paydirt against the Bengals, grinding out just 16 points on the day. Though he managed a modest yardage total of 291, the lack of scoring sunk Ryan Tannehill, leaving him with an unimpressive 12.5 fantasy points on the day.
On Monday night, Matt Ryan looked downright befuddled at times facing a previously vulnerable Pittsburgh passing defense. Predictably, the reinsertion of T.J. Watt into the Steelers’ front has completely changed the dynamic of that unit. Ryan was harassed all night, being sacked three times and turning the ball over twice. His 11.2 fantasy points ranked 28th in the league, disappointing those who entrusted him with their fantasy success.
WEEK 13 STARTS
Trevor Lawrence, JAC (FantasyPros Wk13 ECR: 11)
The Urban Meyer fiasco firmly in the rearview, and Super Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson has instilled a much needed sense of stability in Duval County. And, with a 72.7% completion percentage and a 7 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio over his last five games, Lawrence is quietly rounding into form.
Last week, the Jags burst onto the scene with a 28-27 upset of the visiting Ravens. In that game, Lawrence threw for an impressive 321 yards and three touchdowns, making him a Top 5 fantasy finisher at the quarterback position. He’s finally beginning to show the promise that made him the preemptive top rookie Superflex option just a year ago.
Week 13 should do little to damper Lawrence’s coming out party. He and his Jaguar teammates will visit Detroit to take on a squad that resists the pass more like a lamb than their namesake lion. Detroit allows a robust 259.9 passing yards per game and owns a league-worst third-down percentage of 50.7%. As such, the Lions have been the most appealing defense for signal callers, surrendering the most fantasy points to passers at a rate of 23.8 fantasy points per game.
Poised at the intersection of a surging talent and a vulnerable defense, this matchup is ripe for the picking. But don’t just take my word for it. With the second-highest over/under on the week’s slate (51.5), it’s clear that the oddsmakers foresee a ton of scoring in this contest of 4-7 squads. Get TLaw into your lineup this week, and enjoy the fruits of your patience as he takes on a hapless Detroit defense.
Jalen Hurts, PHI (FantasyPros Wk13 ECR: 2)
Week after week, Jalen Hurts continues to rise above the challenge in 2022. Name the passing stat: completion percentage, touchdowns, QB rating. He’s Top 10 in all of them. His PFF grade of 87.6 ranks the fourth highest in the league. Mind you, he’s made this leap into the NFL’s pantheon of elite throwers while maintaining the dual-threat ability that makes him uniquely difficult to stop. His 4.7 yards per carry average ranks up there with top backs like Jonathan Taylor (4.6) and Dalvin Cook (4.7).
Granted, advocating that you start a firmly planted quarterback in the league MVP race is not exactly remarkable. However, in Week 13, the Eagles will host the visiting Titans, a notoriously hard-nosed team that may give some pause. And while Tennessee is absolutely a tough squad, imbued with all of the grit and tenacity of their head coach, Mike Vrabel, a gauntlet for passers, they are not.
Allowing a massive 266.7 passing yards per game, only the Vikings have been gouged more severely through the air. Indeed, the Titans have come up small against quarterbacks, allowing 19.1 fantasy points per game. The matchup is far better than you might initially suspect.
Sportsbooks have laid over/under player props for Hurts of 273.5 all-purpose yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns. Additionally, they seem to have faith in his ball security, setting the line at 0.5 interceptions thrown. These numbers suggest a strong fantasy day for Jalen Hurts, and with the roll he’s been on, it’s hard to argue. Don’t fear the Titans. Get Hurts in your lineup for a pivotal Week 13 showdown.
WEEK 13 SITS
Russell Wilson, DEN (FantasyPros Wk13 ECR: 25)
In the summer of 2022, a group led by Rob Walton, son of Walmart founder Sam Walton, led a successful charge to purchase the Denver Broncos from the Bowlen family. Ironically, this group now finds themselves with a Walmart version of Russell Wilson at the helm of their franchise.
Few blanched at the massive draft capital exchanged for Wilson when he was acquired from Seattle. In fact, you could argue that stability at the most critical position in football was worth any price. However, these days, there are more questions than answers about the man under center in Denver.
Wilson’s 62.7 grade from PFF ranked him 30th in the league, below players like Mitch Trubisky, Bailey Zappe, and P.J. Walker. Despite high-octane receivers like Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, Denver ranks 20th in the league in passing, putting up just 214.8 yards per game. It seems you don’t get much for $ 243 million these days.
In Week 13, the struggling Broncos will make a cross-country trip to visit Baltimore. Susceptible earlier in the season, the Ravens defense has recently come on strong. Over the past five weeks, Baltimore has given up an average of just 15.2 fantasy points to quarterbacks while vaulting to the top of their division. They are surging at just the right time.
One team that is crashing facing off against another who is ascending? A high-priced quarterback underperforming so badly that he finds himself under siege from within his own organization? I think you get where this is headed. Broncos country, let’s hide! Wilson is not startable in Week 13.
Kyle Allen, HOU (FantasyPros Wk13 ECR: 29)
Despite the off-season options at their disposal, Houston was resolute in giving Davis Mills a sophomore opportunity at the helm. Unfortunately, the young quarterback could not seize the moment and a season earmarked for development fell flat for the Texans. Houston ranks a dismal 27th in the league, passing for just 190.5 yards per game.
Enter Kyle Allen. Allen will never be in the conversation as a face-of-the-franchise type of player. However, he does provide the potential presence and dependability of a stalwart veteran, traits that coach Lovie Smith is clearly craving for his young club.
Unfortunately, in last week’s starting debut in Miami, Allen was anything but stable. He threw for a pair of interceptions and was fortunate that his two fumbles did not also result in turnovers. Securing just 11.8 fantasy points, the desperation play paid off for fantasy owners about as well as it did for the Texans.
In Week 13, the sledding won’t get much easier. The Texans will play host to a Browns team desperate to get back into the win column. Cleveland has allowed a modest 15.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and features shut-down defensive weapons. Players like Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, and Denzel Ward have the potential to make life tough on any offense, let alone a scuffling one.
Short on talent and at a disadvantage motivationally, the deck seems stacked against Kyle Allen. Look elsewhere for fantasy contributions in Week 13.
In Closing…
I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback starts/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!
