Welcome in Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds have helped you throughout the NFL offseason, preparing for the 2023 fantasy football season. Now that your teams are set, it is time to get to work and win some dynasty championships. Every week, our writers will help you with the tough decisions and give you insight that you can’t get anywhere else. I will share my quarterback start/sits weekly to help you set your starting lineups.
Below is a list of all of our weekly positional articles. Please follow us, tweet us, and DM us. We can’t wait to talk football with all of you Nerds!
- Changing the Call (QB): Mike Hicks
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook
- 12 Formation (TE): Steven Pintado
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
LAST WEEK
Just like a player that needs a reset, I needed a benching as well, which showed in my perfect showing in my Week 9 picks.
My starts were a perfect 2-0. In a shootout, Baker Mayfield showed us glimpses of what we saw earlier in his career. Mayfield ended with 262 yards and a pair of TDs, which put him as QB7. That even exceeded what I thought he could do against the Texans. Mac Jones was not able to win but was able to outperform his ECR of QB20. After keeping the Patriots in the game, Jones finished as QB16, a middle-of-the-pack QB2 in Superflex leagues.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers of the following players, I was also perfect in my QB sits for Week 9. It wasn’t a major disappointment, but Jordan Love finished as QB14 with 228 yards and a TD. Unfortunately, my biggest hit of the week was my prediction of Geno Smith. His ECR was QB14; unfortunately, he even underperformed my expectations. Smith ended the week as QB29.
WEEK 10 STARTS
Kyler Murray, Cardinals, QB12
Murray is the starting Arizona Cardinals QB for the first time in 2023 after tearing his ACL in Week 14 of the 2022 season. The Cardinals traded Joshua Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings on October 31st, knowing that Murray would return soon. In 2022, Murray finished as QB19 overall and QB9 in PPG.
The Atlanta Falcons defense is eighth worst in the NFL, giving up an average of 18.6 FPPG to the QB position. Unfortunately, they have been trending downward in the last three games, giving up an average of 23.1 FPPG to QBs. In the previous three weeks, the Falcons have given up QB weekly performances as QB11, QB6, and QB5. The Falcons are getting pressure at a rate of 27.7%, which is fourth in the NFL, but they are only 20th in sacks. They are weak on all levels of the defense and will need to step up this week against the lowly Cardinals.
Murray is playing in 2023 to show the Cardinals and the rest of the NFL that he can be a good to great QB in the NFL. As a team, the Cardinals have averaged 162.6 YPPG in 2023. Murray will look to improve on that and get the win against the Falcons. I don’t believe the Cardinals would have pulled him off the IR this early if he wasn’t ready to play. He will use his lively arm and ability in the run game to be a top-12 QB in week 10. Murray can finish in the top 10 and even as high as QB8 on the week, so he is a must-start in week 9.
Will Levis, Titans, QB17
The rookie Levis has been the Titans’ starter for the last two games, and earlier this week, the Titans announced that Levis will be the starter for the foreseeable future. He showed promise in his first start, finishing as QB6 in Week 8, and in Week 9, he ended as QB21 against a tough Steelers defense. Levis has shown glimpses of why he was a second-round draft pick, and the more starts he has, the better he should perform behind center.
The Tampa Buccaneers defense has been a complete pass-funnel defense all season long. They are 29th in the league, giving up an average of 20.5 FPPG to QBs. And recently, it has been just as bad. In the last three games, they have given up 27.9 FPPG, 67.9% more than the NFL average. The Buccaneers have given up the eighth fewest rushing yards but have made up for it in the passing game. The Buccaneers have given up more than 250 passing yards in six of their eight games this season. Will this trend continue in Week 10?
Levis has been QB9 over the last two games. He has gotten a rapport with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but in Week 9, Kyle Philips was the Titans’ leading receiver. Levis will look to get the passing game going early and will outperform his ECR of QB17. Levis is a must-start in SF leagues and could end up being a fringe QB1 in 1QB leagues.
WEEK 10 SITS
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, QB9
Lawrence has not lived up to expectations so far this season. Through nine weeks, Lawrence is QB17 overall and is averaging 15.6 FPPG. In his first eight games of 2023, Lawrence has only had two top-10 weekly performances. Coming off a bye week, Lawrence and the Jaguars will look to continue their strong start to 2023.
The San Francisco 49ers defense is coming off their bye week. The 49ers are 11th in the NFL in FPPG allowed to the quarterback position. The 49ers as a team have struggled as of late, posting a three-game losing streak, and the defense has also struggled. They have given up an average of 24.8 PPG in the last two games. One major strength is the 49ers are allowing the fourth-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.31). The 49ers will look to get back on track in Week 10.
Lawrence has not had the season the expected to, but there is plenty of time to get back on track. But will it start to turn around against the 49ers? Lawrence’s current ECR is QB9. Lawrence might be a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback, the way the season is currently going. Lawrence will not finish as QB9 and will perform closer to QB12 in week 10.
Russell Wilson, Broncos, QB13
Wilson has not had much success since becoming a member of the Denver Broncos. So far, in 2023, Wilson is QB15. Wilson has two top-12 performances but hasn’t finished as a top-12 QB since Week 4. Wilson has the highest TD rate in the NFL, with a rate of 6.9%. He has struggled so far in 2023, but will he be able to perform on the road on Monday Night Football?
The Buffalo Bills have had a few struggles lately but will try to get back on track on Monday Night Football. The Bills are sixth in the NFL in points allowed to QBs, only giving up 14 FPPG. Their defense has 29 sacks, which is also sixth in the NFL. The Bills have given up ten passing TDs this season; having a stingy defense and going against an already struggling QB is a good formula for success.
Wilson has a current ECR of QB13. This seems high for someone who only has two top-12 performances so far and is playing a primetime game on the road. Yes, Wilson is a start in SF leagues, but if you have another option, I would not start him in 1QB leagues.
Make sure you subscribe to the #NerdHerd, where you get exclusive content, dynasty/rookie/devy rankings, a buy/sell tool, and a bonus podcast. Dynasty Nerds also recently launched the #DynastyGM tool, a complete game-changer in the fantasy industry. Click here for a free trial. We truly are your one-stop shop for all your fantasy football needs!
