During the 2021 season, the Philadelphia Eagles signed Dallas Goedert to a contract extension, preventing him from reaching free agency. Dynasty owners rejoiced in the fact they knew Goedert was staying in an offense that utilized him extremely well. Then came the NFL Draft. The Eagles traded for AJ Brown, a star-wide receiver from the Titans. Dynasty owners that had Goedert fumed since it now seemed like there might not be enough targets to go around with Devonta Smith there too. Everyone can relax. There’s plenty for Goedert. He will be a TE1 this year.
2021 Season Recap
Goedert had a great season in 2021, finishing as a top-12 tight end in fantasy. He set a career-high in yards with 830 and in yards per catch at 14.8. He had four touchdowns with 56 receptions on 76 targets. That includes his playing with Zach Ertz for five games. From Week 7 to 16, Goedert put up 41 receptions on 57 targets for 614 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s a massive ten-game stretch for a tight end. Extrapolating that sample into a full season would result in a stat-line of 97 targets, 70 receptions, 1,044 yards, and four touchdowns. That would be a huge season. He’s proven that he’s an elite TE in the NFL.
2022 Season Projections
With Goedert being joined by AJ Brown, I doubt that he reaches that full potential from the ten-game stretch of 2021. This doesn’t mean he won’t perform. Brown and Smith will take plenty of coverage off Dallas. This frees up Goedert to run the short-intermediate routes. Hurts will target him plenty. In the TE-starved fantasy world, even if he averages 6-7 targets a game, that’s enough to make a big impact.
I see Goedert setting a career-high in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. I think this Philly offense is going to explode as Hurts matures with three talented pass-catchers. Goedert’s potential drops a bit with Brown, but the weaker coverages allow him to rack up more yardage and touchdowns. I foresee the Eagles throwing to him more on third downs as well. In PPR, I project Goedert to average 11.00 ppg. That’s top-tight end numbers.
Buy/Sell Dallas Goedert?
I’m buying Goedert all day. He’s worth a high second currently due to his deflated value following Brown’s trade. He’s going to be a strong TE for the next half-decade like Ertz was. Finding a reliable TE is hard in dynasty. Finding a great one is nearly impossible. That’s why you buy when you can. If you’re in TE premium, Goedert is worth a first-round pick easily. He can secure the hardest spot in fantasy to get good points from.
With that said, Goedert fits contenders more than rebuilders. He’s 27 and might not fit a long-term rebuild. If you are rebuilding with an eye on competing in 2024 then hold him unless you get an overpay. Otherwise, only contenders should have Goedert. He will score more than a normal TE. Don’t blow the rebuild because Goedert scored a bit too much.
Summary
Goedert should be on his way to having a career season with the Eagles in 2022. He’s got the TE room all to himself with no Ertz there. This means he will get the dominant share of targets and playing time. Goedert will face weaker coverages which allow for more catches and yardage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the top five of TEs. If you can buy him for an early second, I would do it. He will be worth that price. Sell him if you’re rebuilding, otherwise buy if you’re contending. I expect Goedert to prove he was worth that contract.
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As always, May the Force be with You…
