Christian Kirk had a breakout season in his first year on the Jacksonville Jaguars. He helped young quarterback Trevor Lawrence break out. He and Lawrence combined to lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. The Jaguars won their division, too, for the first in over a decade. That wouldn’t have been possible if not for Kirk. Many dynasty winners had him on their roster after being wise and trading for him when he was still a cheap acquisition. It was easy to see him breaking out with a better quarterback and far better coaching staff, led by new Head Coach Doug Pederson than what he had with the Arizona Cardinals.
2022 Season Recap
It took a while, but the Kirk breakout year finally happened. In his first year out of the desert and with the Jaguars, he helped Lawrence break out in a big way as the Jaguars clinched their division and made the playoffs. Kirk was a massive part of that, with 84 catches on 133 targets for 1,108 yards, eight touchdowns, and 11 rushing yards over 17 games. Kirk finished as a WR1, surprising many.
This was the Kirk that the Cardinals failed to unlock. Coach Doug Pederson knew how to use Kirk and what routes he excelled at. Kirk was a top player in many advanced metrics. He made the most of his points in the slot, which should secure him a strong fantasy role going forward, as he won’t compete with Calvin Ridley for snaps there. Kirk was a top-twenty player in yards after catch, expected points per game, Dominator rating, red zone targets, and multiple others. It was a fantastic season for the now-WR2 of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
2023 Season Projections
Despite the presence of Ridley, I don’t see Kirk’s numbers falling too far off his marks in 2022. Yes, he won’t be a top-twelve wide receiver. However, he should see far more open routes and easier times making a catch. Plus, Ridley will command a lot of attention in the red zone, which aids Kirk in establishing a higher touchdown floor.
Kirk should easily be a top-24 wide receiver in 2023. I have him finishing right around WR18. Kirk will go through spurts where he doesn’t get the fantasy points or yardages just due to the many weapons Lawrence now has. However, at the end of the day, Kirk should be on a stable floor of at least 12-14 PPR points a game. That’s something you want on your team, as it can afford you to go for a boom-bust guy at WR3.
Long-Term Dynasty Outlook
Kirk is paired up with an elite quarterback in Lawrence for years to come. Kirk is only entering his age-27 season. He has plenty of prime years left in a prolific offense. Even though he’s the WR2 for the Jaguars, he’s still a dynamic dynasty asset. If Kirk sees at least 100 targets, he will be fine. The quality of the targets, along with the likelihood he gets into the end zone a decent amount of times, will carry him to be a WR2 every year. He makes his living downfield in an offense that will stay strong.
If you need a dynasty wide receiver that can give you WR2 numbers but serves as your WR3, target Kirk. He’s worth a late first, which is pretty cheap considering how long you’ll have him. He’s not the Cardinals’ version of Kirk anymore. This is a full-blown stud who should be considered a lock to have at least 1,000 yards a season with seven to nine touchdowns and 110+ targets.
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As always, May the Force be with You…
