Attack the 2024 Rookie Draft: 2.10

In this series for the Dynasty Nerds, the staff will take a rookie draft pick-by-pick and evaluate who they would select. Each pick will take into account other players on the board, how the team build can affect the pick and possibly change the pick, and also the trade value of the pick.

We are operating under the assumption that the league is a SuperFlex league with a tight end-premium scoring format.

The 2.10 Pick

At the end of the second round, we’re getting into the weeds. We’ve worked our way through all the clear starters long ago. In most mocks, you’ll be looking at players who either need time or teammate injuries to ascend to fantasy relevance.

Jermaine Burton is no different, but the reason he stands out from everyone else here is that his draft capital fell due to off-the-field issues. That might not inspire confidence, but I’m inclined to bet on talent, and he has that much going for him. 

Burton had a later breakout age, 22, but he did manage to break 30% dominator in his final season. Were it not for the off-the-field issues, he likely could have made a gambit at a late first-round selection. Instead, he dropped to the third and was selected by the Bengals, which looks to be an excellent landing spot for him.

With Tyler Boyd’s departure, Burton could find himself the primary slot receiver in this offense, which he played heavily in college. He is currently buried behind Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins on the depth chart, and while I expect Higgens to play on the franchise tag this year, it seems as though Burton was drafted as a potential replacement for Higgins going into 2025. 

If Higgins moves on, Burton will receive a value bump even if his rookie season is mediocre. The value of being tied to a talented quarterback should not be overlooked.

Who Else Should You Consider?

The first round of rookie drafts is dominated by wide receivers. I often find myself shifting away from them in the second round. Outside of Burton, you’ll often find MarShawn Lloyd, Michael Penix, Ja’Lynn Polk, Ben Sinnott, and Kimani Vidal available in the mid-to-late second. In IDP leagues, the mid-second is when I start looking at guys like Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu, and Edgerrin Cooper.

Lloyd was selected just one pick ahead of me, and you can find out why [HERE]. 

Sinnott hits several of the marks I look for in tight end prospects, leading to him being my TE2 of the class. He has excellent athleticism combined with good receiving production in college. That said, he will likely take a year or two to break out, and by then, he may have made his way to waivers.

Penix is a solid pick in the second and is a nice reassurance if Kirk Cousins is on your roster. Polk is the other receiving option I’d consider here. His acceleration off the line isn’t great, but his long gait gives him enough speed downfield, and he has reliable hands to make him a deep threat. His production, however, put him into the “high slot rate, high ADoT” bucket, which flags him as a risky pick. I could see him becoming the team’s primary receiving option as a Z receiver. That said, it’s likely he will end up a team’s WR2/3.

Should You Trade the 2.10?

According to KeepTradeCut, the 2.10 pick has a value of 3,038.

As you can see, most guys in the ballpark are mostly flex range with upside if a player ahead of them on the depth chart gets cut or injured. I would be tempted to trade for Justin Fields, knowing week-winning potential, but it’s a precarious proposition. I would prefer Burton over most of the receivers in this range. Even if his outcome is riskier, his value is more likely to increase.

Final Word

All in all, Burton is a high-risk prospect tied to a valuable QB. That’s a situation where his value could increase even with a tepid outing in his rookie season. Sure, JaMarr Chase is the primary receiver in Cincinnati for the foreseeable future. That said, we’ve seen the fantasy value of Joe Burrow’s WR2 from Tee Higgens.

The biggest benefit is that despite having a risky prospect profile, he has a rather safe value profile. He has multiple paths to retaining or growing his value in the next year. A healthy Burrow can support three fantasy-relevant wide receivers which we’ve seen before. Even if Higgins stays, with a decent enough season, Burton likely retains his value. If Higgins leaves, even with a tepid rookie year his value would likely stay the same. Should Burton do even moderately well and Higgens leaves, his value likely increases. If this is making your head spin, just see the chart below.

The deeper silver lining is that if he hasn’t cleaned up his off-the-field issues, it will show in his snap counts. That means you can cut bait in 2025 without holding on for a few years to wait and see. Maybe not the outcome we look forward to, but we should consider all possibilities after all.

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