In this series for the Dynasty Nerds, the staff will take a rookie draft pick-by-pick and evaluate who they would select. Each pick will take into account other players on the board, how the team build can affect the impact and possibly change the pick, and also the trade value of the pick.
We are operating under the assumption that the league is a SuperFlex league with a tight end premium scoring format.
The 1.09 Pick
Wide receivers are all over the board for your rookie drafts, especially in your first round. There’s plenty of value to be had at 1.09, where Brian Thomas Jr. goes off the board.
Drafted as the WR4 this year, Thomas enters a fantastic situation in Jacksonville, primed to be Trevor Lawrence’s top target. With Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones gone, Thomas will join Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk in picking up vacated targets.
The @Jaguars have an exciting 1-2 punch in Trevor Lawrence and 23rd overall pick Brian Thomas Jr. 👊@MoveTheSticks | @BrianThomas_11 pic.twitter.com/XssASngFVl
— NFL (@NFL) May 5, 2024
Thomas is the vertical threat that Lawrence has desperately missed since his days at Clemson with Tee Higgins. Imagine if Thomas became Lawrence’s jump ball maestro in the end zone—his value would skyrocket.
Who Else Should You Consider?
The end of the first round has a lot of value and lots of options to choose from. In a SuperFlex format, you could get lucky and snag Drake Maye here (he unfortunately went at 1.08 here). If you expect the top four quarterbacks to be off the board at 1.09, it comes down to the next tier of receivers and the top options at running back.
Outside of Thomas, receivers like Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, and Xavier Worthy (in that order) should be available. While Thomas was drafted into a great situation, Coleman plugs in as Josh Allen’s top target. McConkey looks to be Justin Herbert’s go-to option, and Patrick Mahomes should be able to feed Worthy a healthy dosage.
The consensus top option at RB, Jonathon Brooks, should be available. While you may prefer Trey Benson, Brooks landed in the best spot among rookie RBs, so he should be the first RB drafted.
Outside of Bowers, who should be off the board already, there are no other TEs worthy of drafting here.
Should You Trade The 1.09?
The ninth selection carries a lot of value, as this year’s rookie class spreads its value across the board. It wouldn’t be too difficult to move back, like to 2.02, and add more picks.
In this deal, you could conceivably move back five spots and pick up a future first-round selection for your troubles. Depending on how you see the board, that move back could be costly. The early part of the second round is very valuable.
If you are looking to move out of this spot for a player/package instead, there are many paths to take. To upgrade at WR, target Jayden Reed (and a 2024 third), George Pickens (and a 2025 early third), or Jordan Addison. For running backs, adding James Cook (straight up) or Rachaad White (and a 2025 mid-second) would also be close in value.
The Final Word
While there will be a tier drop-off towards the end of the first round, this year’s drafts hold their value fairly consistently through the first 10-12 picks. If you are sitting at 1.09, there is a ton of value there, and Thomas seems to be the best of what’s left.
There is a chance a top QB could fall here, but expect to look elsewhere, especially in a SuperFlex format.
Get the Dynasty Nerds app in the Apple and Google Play stores. Mock drafts for Superflex, 1QB, and Standard. If you are a DynastyGM subscriber, it even syncs with your actual teams so that you can do rookie mock drafts with ALL of your actual picks, also on your desktop.
