In this series for the Dynasty Nerds, the staff will take a rookie draft pick-by-pick and evaluate who they would select. Each pick will take into account other players on the board, how the team build can affect the pick and possibly change the pick, and also the trade value of the pick.
We are operating under the assumption that the league is a SuperFlex league with a tight end-premium scoring format.
The 1.04 Pick
1.04 is an interesting pick. Assuming that Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jayden Daniels are off the board (those were the first three picks in this series), you have to do your homework. I settled on Malik Nabers with the pick.
Giants WR Malik Nabers highlights. My life is good. pic.twitter.com/a25VyiCKdg
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) April 26, 2024
Nabers is extremely bursty. He runs excellent routes and is hard to bring down after the catch. He has virtually no competition for targets in his receiver room. I expect him to receive at least 150 targets as a rookie. I believe Naber’s value will rise with a productive rookie season. Even if I love one of the other players, I should be able to trade Nabers for them after this season, and I would get more value on top.
Who Else Should You Consider?
First and foremost, take a look at the other rookie quarterbacks. I think Drake Maye is more talented, but JJ McCarthy got the better landing spot. In my opinion, Maye will sit or struggle in year one. He doesn’t have the talent surrounding him to be successful this season. Even if you like Maye, there will likely be a buy window after year one that you can attack aggressively. McCarthy is my eighth-ranked player, so I wouldn’t consider taking him at 1.04.
That brings us to Odunze. Rome Odunze is polished, and he is an excellent route runner. He is a true X receiver. Odunze is tied to a young, elite (we think) quarterback long-term. The biggest flaw with Odunze is his landing spot. Odunze landed in a crowded receiver room. I think Keenan Allen and DJ Moore will naturally overshadow him as a rookie, but I would be looking to buy Odunze throughout the season if he struggles. He is going to be a great receiver in the NFL.
The other player to take a look at is Brock Bowers. He is an elite prospect at the tight end position, and this is tight end premium. However, I don’t love his landing spot. The Raiders have Aiden O’Connell and Gardner Minshew as it’s potential quarterbacks. At the moment, Bowers is competing with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer for targets. Bowers is undoubtedly more talented than Mayer, but tight ends typically take time to adjust to NFL offenses (unless your name is Sam LaPorta). There could be a buy window for Bowers after the season ends but before the Raiders upgrade at QB.
Should You Trade the 1.04?
I would consider trading the 1.04, but not until I am on the clock. First, ensure your league mates don’t allow Harrison to fall to you. I’ve seen him go 1.04 with Williams, Daniels, and Nabers or Maye in front of him. I’ve also found that you get the most value for a pick when the pick is on the clock.
From a dynasty asset standpoint, I view the 1.04 in the top 25 range. If you need a quarterback but are uncomfortable with your options, I would check with Trevor Lawrence’s owner and see how he feels about 1.04 for Lawrence. If you need a running back and are a contender, check with the McCaffrey owner about 1.04 for Christian McCaffrey. Those players are in the same range as the pick value-wise. You could also try utilizing it in a package for a top 10 valued player if that owner is inclined.
I’m typically not a fan of downgrading, but 1.04 is an opportunity to make a smart downgrade for depth purposes potentially. You can try to trade back to 1.07 (or 1.08 if you believe in McCarthy) and pick up an extra pick on top. I would not go farther back than that, but if you can get solid compensation to move back, I would consider it. Maye, Odunze, and Bowers are all solid options, and a significant asset on top of that could be nice to round out your team.
Final Word
I am taking Nabers with this pick. He’ll be a superstar in the NFL and an explosive addition to your dynasty fantasy football roster.
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