In this series for the Dynasty Nerds, the staff will take a rookie draft pick-by-pick and evaluate who they would select. Each pick will take into account other players on the board, how the team build can affect the pick and possibly change the pick, and also the trade value of the pick.
We are operating under the assumption that the league is a Superflex league with a tight end-premium scoring format.
The 1.07 Pick
At pick 1.07, my top three quarterbacks, top tight end, and top wide receiver are likely off the board. For most drafts, I anticipate either Malik Nabers or Drake Maye to also be off the board by this pick (I lean towards Nabers because of Maye’s landing spot). I decided to take Rome Odunze with this pick.
I love the landing spot with Caleb Williams. Personally, I have Odunze as my WR2 in this draft. I am ecstatic to get him this late in the first round. He is a big-bodied receiver who will be able to study behind Keenan Allen and fine-tune his craft. Odunze has a fantastic combination of size and speed that should complement Williams’ style really well. He can get downfield but also fight through press coverage and difficult catches.
Additionally, not having to be THE guy in his rookie year will take the pressure off. I think this will be extremely beneficial for Odunze’s long-term development. He will be the WR3 in 2024 for the Bears, competing for targets with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen.
However, I fully expect Odunze to be a large part of this offense for years to come. He can be the security Caleb Williams needs and the fact that they both are starting in the NFL at the same time is amazing. They will be able to build a rapport from the start and only enhance it going forward. Apparently, Williams and Odunze were practicing together prior to the NFL Draft even happening, which is awesome to hear.
Who Else Should You Consider?
This far into the first round, there are a number of ways it can go and who would be available. I do anticipate Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Malik Nabers (more often than not), and Brock Bowers off the board in some order in most Superflex tight end premium leagues. If any of the above players (except Nabers) are still on the board at 1.07, draft them instead of Odunze. Nabers and Odunze are so close to me, and it’s really what type of receiver you want. If Nabers happens to be on the board along with Odunze, that will be your choice and your choice alone.
Drake Maye
Maye is really the only other rookie I would consider in this spot, and I expect him to still be on the board. No one likes the landing spot, but this is Superflex. Maye has all the tools that a successful NFL quarterback needs. The question is, can he pull them all together and fine-tune them? He also may sit behind Jacoby Brissett in the beginning, which could potentially improve his outlook as a successful quarterback prospect.
The Patriots drafted two receivers in the first four rounds to try and begin surrounding Maye with talent. Polk was the tenth receiver off the board in the draft, which is insane to say because he went at pick #37. The Patriots’ new regime must believe and Polk and his ability to elevate Maye’s game. If Maye ends up being a QB2, he will most likely outscore Rome over a fantasy season, so keep that in mind when making your pick.
Should You Trade The 1.07?
The 1.07 gives you a lot of options. You could trade up and get one of the top two quarterbacks, Harrison, or Bowers. Or trade back and collect more draft capital. You could also trade for veterans. For the purpose of this discussion, I looked at active players who have similar value:
Mark Andrews looks like a steal in Superflex tight end premium formats. The hype and talent at the top of the class may cheapen Andrews even more. With this format, Andrews could be an anchor for your squad this season and going forward.
The apple of my eye for this group, though, is George Pickens. With Diontae Johnson gone, Pickens is the guy in Pittsburgh, and his current value is less than the 1.07! The difference is that the value is roughly a mid-second-round pick. I would trade the 1.07 for Pickens and the 2.06 in this format all day if Odunze was my pick. I love Odunze, but his path to targets is a lot blurrier than Pickens and they both are young players.
If I thought about trading back, I wouldn’t try to venture back further than the 1.10. I see a large drop-off in talent around there. Honestly, this is the least appealing option between trading for a veteran, trading up, and trading back.
The Final Word
In Superflex tight end premium leagues, 1.07 is right around where the draft really starts in my eyes. The potential outcome variance increases based on team needs and current outlook. Odunze is a great player who should provide at least WR2 numbers in his career, but there are a lot of factors that dynasty owners must evaluate prior to making this pick in their drafts. Some owners could panic with the end of that first tier of rookies and give the farm for this pick. Scenario plan and make sure you’re ready for when you’re up. Good Luck!
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