This past week, the Dynasty Nerds Staff completed and released Mock Draft 7.0 for Superflex and 1QB formats. Make sure you check out the Superflex first-round and second/third-round articles, as well as the 1QB first-round and second/third-round recaps.
Since seven different mock drafts have been conducted, it seems appropriate that we look at where players are starting to be drafted on average in both formats. How have these players moved in the mock drafts from late October until now? Who are the biggest risers? The biggest fallers?
Let’s break it all down.
SUPERFLEX
Our Superflex mock drafts have shifted substantially since the first mock draft took place in late October 2022. Looking back at Mock Draft 1.0, you will notice Hendon Hooker coming in at the 1.08. Additionally, Blake Corum (returning to Michigan next year) was taken at the 1.10.
This isn’t all that surprising, with the mock draft taking place well before the end of the college football season. But let’s take a look at the ADP of our mock drafts if we include the first four mocks, which all took place before the NFL and college seasons ending:
(Note: any player that went undrafted in the first five mocks (two rounds) was given pick 30 as their selection. This would be a mid-third-round draft slot.)
Risers
What is fascinating for me when looking at the ADP with these early mocks included is the shifts in value. Anthony Richardson (+14.8 ADP), Tyjae Spears (+10.6 ADP), Dalton Kincaid (+9.3 ADP), and Zach Charbonnet (+5.6 ADP) all have shifted dramatically from the first four mocks to the last three.
Richardson, in particular, has shot up the board, going from a late second/third-round pick to a top-five selection. Charbonnet is the running back that has gained the most traction. He’s moved from a mid-second-round pick to being the third running back taken the last three mock drafts.
Fallers
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Zach Evans and Sean Tucker are the biggest fallers in Superflex. Evans has dropped 12 spots in ADP, and Tucker has fallen back nine slots.
Tucker has likely dived due to the uncertainty of his numbers. He could not participate at the combine or the Syracuse Pro Day. Tucker had been going as high as a top-10 pick early in the mock draft process. But he has come in as picks 20 and 19 in the last two mock drafts.
On the other hand, Evans had decent numbers at the combine and looked healthy. But he has continuously dropped in the mocks. He was picked between picks 10 and 14 for the first five mock drafts but crashed to picks 26 and 30 in the last two mocks. Evans’s ADP will likely be determined by where he goes in the NFL Draft at the end of this month.
Current ADP
If we are to use the latest three mock drafts of data to determine our current Dynasty Nerds Superflex ADP, this would be our current rankings:
1QB
Much like Superflex, the ADP in 1QB has shifted quite a bit since October as well. Once again, looking back to the Mock Draft 1.0 in October shows us a very different top-12.
Blake Corum was in the top ten again, which has obviously shifted since he returned to Michigan. And very quickly, we see Sean Tucker in the top four, which we will address in our fallers group.
So where have things gone since this first mock? Let’s take a look at the full ADP with all seven mock drafts included:
(Note: any player that went undrafted in the first five mocks (two rounds) was given pick 30 as their selection. This would be a mid-third-round draft slot.)
Risers
Once again, Richardson (+9.3 ADP), Spears (+12.5 ADP), Kincaid (+12.8 ADP), and Charbonnet (+6.6 ADP) all make the list of risers. But we also have a few new names, including the leader in risers for both formats.
Former Texas running back Roschon Johnson increased 15.6 slots in ADP from the first four mocks to the latest three. Johnson had gone undrafted in three of the first four mocks and was 23rd overall in 3.0. But he has gone 8th, 17th, and 13th in the last three mocks.
Additionally, wide receivers Zay Flowers (+9.25 ADP) and Jalin Hyatt (+6.3 ADP) have jumped from the first four mocks to the last three. Hyatt’s rise could have been even higher with picks at thirteen and seven in mocks 5.0 and 6.0. But falling to 21 in 7.0 kept the jump from hitting double digits. Meanwhile, Flowers is moving up boards rapidly, coming in at pick 8 in back-to-back mock drafts in 6.0 and 7.0.
Fallers
Once again, Evans and Tucker are also two of our biggest fallers in 1QB. Evans has dropped 14.2 slots in ADP, while Tucker has gone down 5.3 slots.
But add to this list drops by Bryce Young (-8.75 ADP), Cedric Tillman (-7.5 ADP), and Rashee Rice (-7.25 ADP). Young was the QB1 in this class for some time. His drop seems to be due to being a bit over-drafted in 1QB early in these mocks. His ADP now likely reflects his value a bit more.
Meanwhile, Tillman and Rice dropping does seem to stem from a change in perception of both prospects. Tillman had gone as high as 16 overall in Mock Draft 2.0. Since then, he has gone at 30, 30, and 27. Similarly, Rice went 18 overall in Mock Draft 3.0. But the last three mocks have come in at 30, 32, and 28.
Be wary of these changes when it comes to your rookie drafts. The values of these players seem to have diminished quite a bit. This could change if they get high draft capital in the NFL draft.
Current ADP
Once again, if we use the latest three mock drafts of data to determine our current Dynasty Nerds Superflex ADP, this would be our current rankings:
You can follow Tim on Twitter at @timbmartens. He also co-hosts the Mock Draft Monday show on the Dynasty Nerds Discord Stage, available for all Nerd Herd members.
