Trading is an exciting, strategic aspect in dynasty fantasy football. In dynasty leagues, a fantasy manager’s success often hinges on their ability to trade efficiently. Fantasy managers can fill gaps in their roster, improve weaknesses, and provide depth to their overall squad. Successful trading requires a solid understanding of player values, league trends, and negotiation skills. In these Dynasty Trade Secrets, we will dive into different aspects of the trade to help you dominate your league.
Dynasty Trade Secrets
STEP 1 | ASSESSING YOUR ROSTER
Contender or Pretender
The first step in dynasty trading is proper identification of your team. You need to assess your team and decide if you are a contender or a pretender.
- If you are a pretender, you need to view your team as a rebuilding-style team.
- If you are a contender, you need to view your team as missing one or two pieces from securing a fantasy championship.
I use the Dynasty GM tool to do this. Dynasty GM offers a league analyzer that shows how your team stacks up against the competition:
The worst position for any team is the middle of the pack. A middle-of-the-road team would be 5, 6, 7, or 8, depending on your league format. For this series, we will work under the assumption of 12-team leagues.
When you are a “mid” team, those 1st round picks have a hit rate of 20% while a top-4 pick has a hit rate of 65%. This has been explained by Podcast Nerd Garret Price in a previous episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast.
Let’s see what these hit rates can look like. For example, 2023 rookie 1st round average draft position (ADP) went as followed:
To check out another recent example, the 2022 rookie first round ADP looked like this (if you can believe it):
The 2022 draft class produced some fantasy-relevant wide receivers, including Drake London, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson, but also had some heavy misses, such as Jahan Dotson, Skyy Moore, and Christian Watson.
The 2023 class produced some valuable running backs, but both Bijan Robinson and Jahymr Gibbs were top 4 draft selections in the majority of rookie drafts. Many fantasy managers were stuck drafting Zach Charbonnet and Kendre Miller at the middle or end of their first rounds. Unless you were listening to Podcast Nerd Rich Dotson, who was an advocate for selecting De’Von Achane early in your rookie drafts.
If you are drafting outside of a top 4 selection, package something with your 1st round pick and try to move up a couple of spots. If you are in that mid-to-late draft pick territory and trading up is not an option, reach out to other managers and see if acquiring a veteran starter + a 2026 1st round pick is a possibility. Remember, these draft picks only become more valuable the closer you get to your rookie drafts because everyone gets rookie fever.
Pretenders | What to Do
Once you have identified yourself as a contender or pretender, you are ready to move on to the next step. If you have established yourself as a pretender, you need to get younger and avoid the aging veterans. Players like Davante Adams, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey, and Joe Mixon should be avoided at all costs. If you have those players on your roster, all they are doing is helping you win meaningless games and potentially putting your team in that dreaded middle-of-the-road territory.
This is a great example of a trade to make if you are a Saquon Barkley manager. In this trade, the Barkley manager is starting to rebuild with draft-pick assets. This will also help obtain better draft capital, as rostering Barkley will result in winning meaningless games, keeping this team in the dreaded middle-of-the-road territory.
When you are a pretender, the last area that needs to be addressed is the running back position. Running backs have a much shorter NFL shelf life than wide receivers. If you prioritize running backs, by the time you’re ready to contend, they may only have a couple of years left at the top—or have already begun to decline. Players like Kenneth Walker III, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor are all trade away candidates for pretenders. It’s better to cash in on these RBs while their dynasty value is high, then rebuild the RB room once the rest of the roster is in place.
Contenders | What to Do
Now, let’s switch that philosophy to a contender mindset. As a contender, you should prioritize acquiring players who can directly contribute to your team’s success right now, rather than making long-term future moves. Your draft picks need to become trade assets, especially 2nd round picks and beyond.
This is a trade that was recently made using the Dynasty GM tool. This is the perfect deal to make if you are a contender. The hit rate on 3rd round picks is around 6.6%, so for a contending team, the chances of those draft picks even contributing to their team are slim. In return, you are acquiring Mike Evans, who has finished as a WR2 or better every year since entering the league.
Review | Assessing Your Roster
We have addressed how to assess your roster and decide if you are a pretender or a contender. You need to take a hard look at your team and realize that if you are not contending, it is time to rebuild. Luckily for you, the best way to do that is through the Dynasty GM, where you get an unbiased analysis of your team to give you the answers that you need. Stay tuned Nerds for the next article in this series, where we dive into dynasty trade secrets on player value and draft pick value.
Trade Target of the Week | Dynasty Trade Secrets
You can’t finish off a trade article without highlighting a trade target. With Tyreek Hill seemingly on the way out in Miami and Odell Beckham Jr. being released, the crowded Dolphins’ receiver room just became bare. Malik Washington has the best chance to step up and contribute in 2025.
The 2024 6th-round rookie finished the season with 26 receptions and 223 receiving yards. Washington is very physical for his size and not easy to tackle. Coming into the 2024 NFL Draft, I viewed him as a “Steve Smith-light” type of player. Thanks for reading the latest Dynasty Trade Secrets!
