Welcome to the Week 11 Positional Matchups Report, aka POSAFPA. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
How to Use the Week 11 Positional Matchups Table
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) and Ricky Pearsall (WR-SF). For Williams, find DEN in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -11%. That’s a mildly negative matchup. Next, for Pearsall, find SF in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 17%, which is a moderately positive matchup. Given both players are averaging about 11.5 points per game, I’d lean Pearsall.
Offensive Matchups to Target | Week 11 Positional Matchups
While Bo Nix has slowed down the last two weeks, he hasn’t sunk you either. He’s been getting a 23% rush share which has provided a nice floor. Now he faces the Falcons who have been a great positional matchup for quarterbacks in what is expected to be a close game. He could bounce-back in Week 11.
The Steelers passing attack has had mostly good matchups outside of last week—in Week 11 Positional Matchups, they get the best in the league. The Ravens are the best matchup for wide receivers in the NFL and this week George Pickens and Calvin Austin could both take advantage. Pickens is averaging a very good 28% target share and is a weekly starter. The game is expected to be high-scoring with the Steelers trailing by just 3 points, so this could turn into a shoot-out. Austin is a great flex option for Week 11.
If you are competing, David Montgomery should be a high-priority trade target before your deadline. Jahmyr Gibbs likely can’t be acquired for a reasonable amount, but Montgomery has never carried a massive price tag. This week, they go against a Mac Jones led Jaguars where they are expected to win by 13. That kind of spread is rare and implies plenty of rushing from Detroit. This could be a game where both Gibbs and Montgomery finish as top-18 running backs.
Jonnu Smith has had a quietly productive season. He gets the Raiders this week who have been a good team to target for tight end streaming, and that’s only reinforced by the news that Tyreek Hill is dealing with a long-term wrist injury. While Smith’s volume hasn’t been great, it could increase in the coming weeks.
Offensive Matchups to Avoid | Week 11 Positional Matchups
I’ll be honest, there aren’t any fantasy-relevant clear avoids at quarterback in Week 11 and Jordan Love is the closest to fitting the bill, but I can’t recommend sitting him. On paper, the matchup is tough. The Bears have a solid defense and have struggled to move the ball on offense, plus they are getting a new interim offensive coordinator for Week 11. The Packers could get ahead early and rely on their running backs. All that said, as a lifelong Chicago Bears fan, I cannot recommend betting against a Green Bay quarterback when they play the Bears. Recent history tells us it is a losing prospect.
If you have Tyreek Hill on your roster, you have to start him-wrist injury or not. Jaylen Waddle is another story. He’s only averaged 4.8 PPG points over the last 6 weeks and this is a particularly tough matchup. Malik Washington had a good game last week, but don’t expect the same for Week 11.
Buffalo’s backfield has been murky all year without a clear lead emerging. All have looked good at some point, but none can be trusted. James Cook is likely a lower-end RB2 in Week 11 while Ray Davis and Ty Johnson should be let on your bench. The volume is poor and there isn’t much touchdown upside with Josh Allen’s redzone rushing.
Evan Engram has been usable in fantasy this year. He’s getting enough volume to make him a solid every-week starter but doesn’t do enough with it to break into the top end. This week will likely be especially rough as they face Detroit, the toughest matchup in the league for tight ends.
IDP Matchups
IDP | Week 11 Positional Matchups to Target
The Saints’ defensive linemen rotation makes it hard to find weekly starters but easy to find upside streamers. Chase Young and Carl Granderson (dual eligibility) are the closest to every-week starters, but Payton Turner and Cameron Jordan could be in play as well.
The Titans linebackers have been feasting and it’s seemingly gone unnoticed. They currently have 3 linebackers averaging over 15 points a game over the last 6 weeks if you count Harold Landry’s dual eligibility. The other two are Arden Key and Jack Gibbens. They haven’t had any particularly great matchups lately, but have been putting up big numbers. Now they get the Vikings who are a solid matchup. Picking them up off waivers could be a week-winning move.
Ugo Amadi is the top streamer this week. With Marshon Lattimore on IR and traded, Ugo Amadi played 100% of the Saints’ defensive snaps. He had 9 solo tackles, plus 3 tackles for a loss. This week his positional matchup is even better, so pick him up and start him with confidence.
For more details on him and more IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s IDP Fantasy PLAYERS YOU NEED to Add for Week 11.
Team Trends | Week 11 Positional Matchups
Rush Funnel Teams: The Panthers, Broncos, Raiders, Saints, Giants, Steelers, and 49ers are all notably rush funnel teams right now.
Pass Funnel Teams: The Falcons, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, and Buccaneers are all pass funnels at current.
IDP Targets: Seahawks remain the top target for defensive backs, though the Colts are big risers lately. The Browns and Chiefs are both top options for opposing defensive linemen, and the Giants are the team to target for linebackers.
Final Word
I’d like to take the opportunity to discuss the Dallas Cowboys defense this week, specifically in regards to IDP. Their rushers and cornerbacks have a poor outlook for fantasy through the rest of the year. With Dak Prescott out for the season, the offense appeared deflated. That means teams will have an easier time getting ahead. In turn, they will likely run the ball more, giving fewer opportunities for sacks and interceptions.
Linebackers and defensive tackles will be less affected as their floor for tackles will likely increase. Guys like Eric Kendricks and DeMarvion Overshown could even be considered “trade for” candidates right now considering most people are down on the Cowboys as an organization and may be more inclined to sell.
If you’re looking for more dynasty trade advice, check out Trade Nerd Mychal Warno’s Players to Target for Championships and NFL Prospects Nerd Mike Johrendt’s IR Players to Trade for and Away that were released earlier this week:
