Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly start/sit advice all season long. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings. Here is the Week 9 Quarterback Start/Sit from staff writer Mike Hicks.
One thing to keep in mind when making Quarterback start/sit decisions; it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. Don’t take the players below out of (or put them into) your lineups unless the alternates are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are sourced from FantasyPros expert consensus expert rankings (ECR) and our terminology is for a 12-team PPR league. So, saying QB2 means top 24, or QB1 means top 12, etc.
Our writers answer all positional questions, including quarterback start/sit questions on Discord before the games exclusively for the #Nerdherd. The advanced metrics used in this article are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite, use code NERDS for 25% off your own data suite subscription or All-in bundle.
| Player | FPts | Comp | Att | Yds | TDs | Int | Call | Rank | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 29.8 | 28 | 37 | 284 | 3 | 0 | Start | 13 | 2 | +11 |
| Justin Herbert | 24.1 | 20 | 32 | 279 | 2 | 0 | Start | 26 | 10 | +16 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14.7 | 28 | 38 | 234 | 1 | 0 | Spotlight | 16 | 23 | -7 |
| Jameis Winston | 24.6 | 27 | 41 | 334 | 3 | 0 | Spotlight | 23 | 7 | +14 |
| Kyler Murray | 22.2 | 26 | 36 | 307 | 2 | 0 | Sit | 9 | 12 | -3 |
| Jared Goff | 15.5 | 12 | 15 | 85 | 3 | 0 | Sit | 14 | 21 | -7 |
1 QUARTERBACK START/Sit
GENO SMITH I V. LAR I 17.1 FPPG I ECR 13 I 80% CONFIDENCE
Geno Smith struggled in Week 8, only scoring 9.1 fantasy points. That can largely be attributed to rainy, cold weather and game script. It was the first game of the season for Smith without a TD. He will look to get his mojo back in Week 9. According to Fantasy Points Data Suite, Smith leads the league in passing with 274.6 YPG. Geno Smith also has a top-10 completion percentage of 68.8% (FPDS).
The 12s and the Seattle Seahawks will give a gracious emerald city welcome to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9. The Rams are giving up 16.3 FPPG to QBs (FantasyPros). Whereas I mentioned the game script was paltry last week, I believe that the game script will be in Smith’s favor in Week 9. According to our Dynasty Nerds GM Tool, Smith is projected for 20.78 points this week. His projection, matchup, and overall game script make Smith a juicy matchup to comfortably start in all fantasy formats.
1 QUARTERBACK Start/SIT
JOE BURROW I V. LV I 19.0 FPPG I ECR 5 I 15% CONFIDENCE
Who Dey! The Cincinnati Bengals are a mediocre 3-5 through 8 games. Joe Burrow’s inconsistent start has something to do with it, but it’s not all bad. Burrow has thrown for 249.1 YPG (9TH) and 15 TDs. Burrow has 3 TD in his last 3 games. The Bengals run the ball 35% of the time, however when they are up 7+ points they are at 50/50 pass run split (FPDS).
The Cincinnati Bengals are set to welcome the Las Vegas Raiders to the jungle in Week 9. According to our Data Nerd Brad Custer’s (@moncalFF) DPOA Chart (Defensive Percentage Over Average), the Raiders are a plus matchup for Joe Burrow with a 21% fantasy points over expected average. The Raiders are giving up 206.6 PaYPG, 7th lowest in the NFL. However, they are giving up 129.9 RuYPG, 15th in the NFL.
With a struggling offense for the Raiders and an Over/Under of 46.5, the Bengals shouldn’t need a big performance from Burrow to get the win. Our projections have him at 17.52 (DynastyGM), which is 4.45 points lower than his Sleeper projection for Week 9. I would be crazy to tell you to sit Burrow in Superflex leagues, but use caution in 1QB leagues, and sit him if you can.
SUPERFLEX QUARTERBACK START/Sit
DEREK CARR I V. CAR I 15.2 FPPG I ECR 23 I 85% CONFIDENCE
Dude, Where’s my Carr? The New Orleans Saints will welcome back Derek Carr in Week 9 for the first time since his oblique injury in Week 5. Through the first 5 games, Carr had 989 yards, 8 TDs, and 4 INTs. Carr likes to throw the ball downfield with a deep throw attempt rate of 17.2%—2nd in the NFL among QBs with a minimum of 50 dropbacks (FPDS). Carr is also 2nd in the NFL with a Completion Percentage Over Exepcted (CPOE) of 6.1% (FPDS).
Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints face the reeling Carolina Panthers in Week 9. The Panthers are giving up 33.9 PPG to their opponents in 2024. Carr has an advantageous matchup against the Panthers. According to Brad Custer’s DPOA Chart, the Panthers are expected to surrender 20% more production to Carr than average. Carolina is giving up the league’s 4th-most points to QBs (20.4 FPPG). Carr is 20th in our Week 9 projections (Nerds GM). Go ahead and put Carr in your Superflex lineups, as I expect him to finish somewhere between QB15 and QB18 in Week 9.
SUPERFLEX QUARTERBACK Start/SIT
Tua Tagovailoa I V. BUF I 13.9 FPPG I ECR 17 I 19% CONFIDENCE
Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8 did not result in a win, but he did help get the Miami Dolphins offense back on track. The Dolphins scored 27 points, which is their highest total this season. He showed signs of good things to come in Week 8, passing for 234 yards and 1 TD. Tagovailoa had a catchable throw rate of 84.2% (FPDS), 5th in Week 8. He is averaging 239 YPG and has a total of 3 passing TDs.
Should you expect Tua Tagovailoa to continue his success against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9? Not so fast! The Bills are a -15% matchup for Tagovailoa (DPOA). Buffalo is giving up 224.5 PaYPG this season, and they only give up 14.4 FPPG to QBs, 6th best in the NFL (FantasyPros). Tagovailoa is 26th in our projections with 13.05 points (Nerds GM). This divisional matchup is not in Tagovailoa’s favor. Last week he was my spotlight player, this week I am keeping him out of the spotlight if I can. Go ahead and sit him in all formats, including Superflex.
QUARTERBACK SPOTLIGHT
JOE FLACCO I V. MIN I 14.3 FPPG I ECR 20 I 75% CONFIDENCE
The Indianapolis Colts have a new starting quarterback again. Joe Flacco is back under center after the benching of Anthony Richardson. In 4 games this season, Flacco has 716 yards, 7 TD, and 1 INT. Flacco is not flashy, but that’s not what the Colts need. They need a consistent workhorse QB, and that’s exactly what Joe Flacco brings to the offense. He also brings optimism to the expectations for wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.
The Indianapolis Colts are facing the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. The Vikings are 5-2, but they have still shown some weaknesses as of late. The Vikings are giving up 286.3 PaYPG, 2nd most in the NFL. The matchup for Flacco is a favorable one. Minnesota is expected to allow 17% more fantasy points to Flacco than average (DPOA). If he shows he can be a productive QB in Week 9, he might cement himself as a must-start in Superflex leagues.
If you enjoyed the Week 9 Quarterback Start/Sit by Mike Hicks, please check out the rest of our Start/Sit series by navigating the toolbar above.
If you want some added dynasty content, check out College Content Director Tristan Cook‘s Top 25 NFL prospects in our first installment of the Rookie Big Board series:
