The Week 9 Thursday Fantasy Preview was curated by senior staff writer Steven Pintado using statistics from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. If you want access to these stats (and dozens of other proprietary figures) sign up here and use promo code NERDS to save 25% on a Data Suite or All-In subscription. Without further ado, let’s dig in to the Thursday fantasy preview!
TRADE ALERT: Diontae Johnson Traded To Baltimore
The Carolina Panthers are trading veteran receiver Diontae Johnson to the Baltimore Ravens.
- The Ravens receive Diontae Johnson & a 2025 6th Round selection.
- The Panthers receive a 2025 5th Round selection.
What It Means For The Panthers
The Panthers are selling short on Johnson, who they knew they would lose this offseason. The Panthers need to evaluate their young talent, especially with 1st-Round pick Xavier Legette. He should see a full-time workload for the rest of the season as a fantasy WR4. The player in dynasty leagues to pick up is undrafted rookie Jalen Coker.
We saw Coker on full display in Week 8, filling in for the injured Diontae Johnson. Coker finished with 4 receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. Outside of Johnson, Coker is the only other Panther to have at least 2 games over 65 receiving yards. He should be someone to watch down the stretch of the season—and picked up off of all dynasty waivers.
What It Means for the Ravens
The addition of Diontae Johnson is going to make this pass-catching group messy. While the passing offense has been good this season, the Ravens are still a run-first offense. Johnson is a player who needs targets, so it will be interesting if he digs into the Ravens WR1 Zay Flowers‘ target share. This could make Flowers drop from a solid WR2 down to a flex option. Despite this potential drop in opportunity, Flowers can be a trade-for-less option. Flowers is the slot receiver and is fantastic after the catch. Johnson’s arrival shouldn’t drastically change your dynasty outlook on Flowers.
With Johnson’s addition, Rashod Bateman‘s role in the offense could take a significant hit. Bateman, who was already struggling to make an impact as a WR5 in league, could see his targets further reduced by Johnson’s presence. The tight ends also face uncertainty with the shifting target distribution. Isaiah Likely could potentially become a bench player, losing his startable fantasy value on the team. Beyond Flowers and possibly Mark Andrews, these pass catchers are likely to see a decline in fantasy value.
What It Means for Diontae Johnson
While it’s a great career move to be traded to a winning team, Johnson’s fantasy value takes a hit. Despite uneven quarterback play in Carolina, Johnson was part of an offense that averaged 23 attempts per game per Fantasy Points Data Suite. While it wasn’t a good offense, Johnson had a 24% target share.
As part of the Ravens, Johnson will be part of an offense that is averaging 29.5 attempts per game. Unfortunately, Johnson will have to battle for targets with four other pass catchers who have over a 10% target share in the Ravens offense. I wouldn’t expect Johnson to be fed targets in this offense; his target share could take a big hit from what he received in Carolina. Johnson may be more of a touchdown-or-bust receiver for the rest of the season. Johnson has shown he can be a red zone threat. He had 9 targets in the red zone with the Panthers this season. We could be losing the consistency in our lineups that Johnson offered in the first half of the season.
Houston Texans (6-2) vs New York Jets (2-6)
Game Summary | Thursday Fantasy Preview
- Thursday Night Football: 8:15 PM
- Metlife Stadium
- Field Type: Turf
- Weather: Overcast
- New York Jets are favored (-2) with an Over/Under of 42.5
- Stream on Prime Video
| Team | Def. Rank Vs. QBs | Def. Rank Vs. RBs | Def. Rank Vs. WRs | Def. Rank Vs. TES | Def. 2 Man % | Def. Zone % | Offensive Plays Ran | Points Per Game | Pass Yards Per Game | Rush Yards per Game |
| Texans | 22nd | 5th | 27th | 4th | 28.2 | 65.6 | 65.4 | 23.5 | 232.5 | 118.9 |
| Jets | 6th | 13th | 5th | 6th | 37.3 | 59.3 | 60.9 | 18.8 | 224.5 | 86.1 |
Quarterbacks | Thursday Fantasy Preview
| Houston Texans | ||||||||||||
| Player | Fantasy Rank (6 PPT) | Week 9 Ranking | Start % | FP/G | A/G | SCRM | YDS/G | 1 Read % | YAC % | Press % | ADOT | CHK % |
| C.J. Stroud | 17th | Low QB2 | 72% | 17.5 | 33.3 | 2.9 | 254.1 | 60.2 | 46.4 | 38.5 | 7.6 | 13.2 |
| New York Jets | ||||||||||||
| Player | Fantasy Rank (6 PPT) | Week 9 Ranking | Start % | FP/G | A/G | SCRM | YDS/G | 1 Read % | YAC % | Press % | ADOT | CHK % |
| Aaron Rodgers | 22nd | Mid QB2 | 78% | 17.3 | 35.5 | 1.4 | 242.5 | 65.8 | 53 | 24.2 | 7.3 | 9.9 |
- Houston, on the road, has allowed the opposing quarterback to throw for at least 2 passing touchdowns.
- The Jets have allowed a QB1 in 2 of the last 3 games.
Running Backs | Thursday Fantasy Preview
| Houston Texans | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Fantasy Rank (PPR) | Week 9 Ranking | Start % | FP/G | ATT/G | ATT % | Off. Snaps/G | TGT % | i5% | i20% | EXP Run % | MTF/ATT | YACO/ATT | YBCO/ATT |
| Joe Mixon | 1st | Mid RB1 | 95% | 22.4 | 20.4 | 46.4% | 61% | 12.0 | 75 | 81.5 | 5.9 | 0.09 | 2.68 | 2.25 |
| Dameon Pierce | 65th | Outside the Top 48 | 25% | 4.2 | 3.5 | 6.4% | 14% | 0.8 | 0 | 8 | 7.1 | 0.21 | 5.57 | 1.43 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 56th | Outside the Top 48 | 50% | 5.3 | 2.9 | 10.5% | 33% | 6.4 | 0 | 7.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.52 |
| New York Jets | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Fantasy Rank (PPR) | Week 9 Ranking | Start % | FP/G | ATT/G | ATT % | Off. Snaps/G | TGT % | i5% | i20% | EXP Run % | MTF/ATT | YACO/ATT | YBCO/ATT |
| Breece Hall | 11th | Low RB1 | 91% | 16.2 | 13.9 | 62.7% | 76% | 15.1 | 87.5 | 63.6 | 4.5 | 0.11 | 2.69 | 1.16 |
| Braelon Allen | 47th | Mid RB4 | 60% | 6.6 | 6.1 | 27.7% | 26% | 4.8 | 12.5 | 22.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 2.78 | 1.04 |
- The Texans have allowed an opposing running back to rush for over 75 yards in 5 of the last 6 games.
- The Jets have given up a rushing touchdown in 3 of the previous 4 games.
Pass Catchers | Thursday Fantasy Preview
| Houston Texans | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Fantasy Rank (PPR) | Week 9 Ranking | Start % | FP/G | Off. Snaps/G | TGT/G | TGT % | RTE/G | SLOT RTE % | YAC | EZTGT | 1READ % | MAN WIN RATE | ZONE WIN RATE |
| Tank Dell | 60th | Low WR2 | 83% | 8.8 | 70% | 5.4 | 15.4 | 30.3 | 25.5 | 72 | 4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 13.4 |
| John Metchie | 146th | Outside the Top 60 | 50% | 1.5 | 29% | 0.8 | 3 | 6.6 | 33.3 | 17 | 0 | 4.1 | 0 | 7.7 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 152nd | Outside the Top 60 | 45% | 1.4 | 36% | 0.6 | 2.9 | 11.3 | 36.7 | 21 | 0 | 2.9 | 25 | 7.5 |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | TE28 | High TE2 | 68% | 5.7 | 83% | 4.8 | 13.2 | 28.0 | 27.2 | 78 | 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 4.5 |
| New York Jets | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Fantasy Rank (PPR) | Week 9 Ranking | Start % | FP/G | Off. Snaps/G | TGT/G | TGT % | RTE/G | SLOT RTE % | YAC | EZTGT | 1READ % | MAN WIN RATE | ZONE WIN RATE |
| Garrett Wilson | 13th | Low WR1 | 92% | 15.9 | 96% | 10.4 | 28.4 | 36.4 | 37.8 | 245 | 5 | 34.5 | 28.1 | 13 |
| Davante Adams | 33rd | High WR2 | 89% | 12.1 | 95% | 7.5 | 17.9 | 32 | 43.8 | 30 | 0 | 22.5 | 16.1 | 5.4 |
| Tyler Conklin (TE) | TE20 | Low TE2 | 55% | 7.8 | 86% | 4.8 | 12.0 | 29.3 | 48.7 | 138 | 3 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 2.6 |
- Houston has held every opposing tight end under 45 receiving yards in every game this season.
- The Jets have allowed a TE to produce 45 or more yards in 3-straight games.
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Table of Contents | Fantasy Preview
| Quarterbacks | |
| FP/G | Fantasy Points per Game |
| YPA | Passing Yards per Attempt |
| SCRM | QB Rush Attempts per Game |
| YDS/G | Yards Per Game |
| First Read % | Percentage of Throws to the QB’s 1st Read or Designed Throws |
| YAC % | Percentage of Passing Yards that come after the catch |
| Press % | Percentage of Dropbacks Under Pressure |
| ADOT | Average Depth of Target |
| Running Backs | |
| FP/G | Fantasy Points per Game |
| ATT/G | Attempts per Game |
| ATT % | Team Carry Share |
| TGT % | Team Target Share |
| Off. Snaps/G | Offensive Snaps per Game |
| i5 % | Percentage of Team’s Inside-the-5 Carries |
| i20 % | Percentage of Team’s Inside-the-20 Carries |
| EXP RUN % | Percentage of Runs to go for 15+ Yards |
| MTF/ATT | Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt |
| YACO/ATT | Yards After Contact per Attempt |
| YBCO/ATT | Yards Before Contact per Attempt |
| Pass Catchers | |
| FP/G | Fantasy Points per Game |
| Off. Snaps/G | Offensive Snaps Per Game |
| TGT/G | Targets Per Game |
| TGT % | Team Target Share |
| RTE/G | Routes Run Per Game |
| SLOT RTE % | Percentage of Routes Run from the Slot |
| YAC | Yards After the Catch |
| EZTGT | Endzone Targets |
| 1READ % | Percentage of Team’s 1st Read and Designed Targets |
| MAN WIN RATE | Percentage of Routes against Man Coverage with a Positive Separation Score |
| ZONE WIN RATE | Percentage of Routes against Zone Coverage with a Positive Separation Score |
