Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly start/sit advice all season long. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings. Here are the running back starts and sits from senior writer Mychal Warno.
One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions; it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. Don’t take the players below out of (or put them into) your lineup unless the alternatives are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are sourced from FantasyPros expert consensus expert rankings (ECR) and our terminology is for a 12-team PPR league. So, saying RB2 means top 24, or RB1 means top 12, etc.
WEEK 4 RESULTS
| Player | FPts | RuYds | Recs | RecYds | TDs | Call | Rank | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 10.3 | 19 | 3 | 54 | 0 | Start | 22 | 31 | -9 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 20.3 | 101 | 3 | 12 | 1 | Start | 15 | 11 | +4 |
| Bucky Irving | 12.5 | 49 | 1 | 6 | 1 | Start | 30 | 23 | +7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 9.2 | 32 | 3 | 30 | 0 | Sit | 19 | 34 | -15 |
| D’Andre Swift | 29.5 | 93 | 7 | 72 | 1 | Sit | 29 | 3 | +26 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 19.8 | 88 | 3 | 20 | 1 | Sit | 10 | 13 | -3 |
Running Back STARTS
Chuba Hubbard | Carolina Panthers | RB 11
Week 4 Stats | RB 7 | FPts 22.1 | Att 18 | Yds 104 | TDs 1 | Tgts 4 | Rec 4 | Yds 17 | TDs 0 | Confidence 85%
Hubbard is coming off of back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances and finished as the RB4 and the RB7 over that span. Since Andy Dalton has taken over at quarterback, Hubbard has not scored fewer than 22.1 FPPG.
Hubbard should produce as a low-end RB1 against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have allowed Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams to all finish in the top 12 this season.
Jerome Ford | Cleveland Browns | RB 18
Week 4 Stats | RB 18 | FPts 15.5 | Att 110 | Yds 58 | TDs 0 | Tgts 7 | Rec 7 | Yds 27 Confidence 80%
While the statistics are not eye-popping, Jerome Ford has scored double-digit fantasy points in 75% of his games this year. Ford’s 20 targets are 3rd at the position, tying him with Alvin Kamara.
In fellow Dynasty Nerds writer Brad Custer’s latest Positional Matchup article, Ford has a 28% over-average positive matchup against the Washington Commanders, which is the 4th highest on the week.
Washington is coming into Week 5 after allowing James Conner to finish as the RB11. Conner produced a stat line of 18 carries, 104 rushing yards, and a touchdown.
Trey Sermon | Indianapolis Colts | RB 37
Week 4 Stats | RB 73 | FPts 0.8 | Att 8 | Yds 8 | TDs 0 | Tgts 0 | Rec 0 | Yds 0 | TDs 0 | Confidence 60%
Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for the Week 5 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Taylor left early in last Sunday’s win against the Steelers with a high ankle injury. When Taylor exited the game, Trey Sermon took the remaining touches. Sermon is familiar with stepping up in Taylor’s absence—in Week 15 last season, Sermon carried the ball 17 times for 88 yards.
Jacksonville has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Sermon will likely finish as a flex-worthy start given his expanded role in the offense and can be started with confidence as a low-end RB2 or flex.
Running Back SITS
Devin Singletary | New York Giants | RB 21
Week 4 Stats | RB 51 | FPts 4.8 | Att 14 | Yds 24 | TDs 0 | Tgts 1 | Rec 1 | Yds 14 | TDs 0 | Confidence 50%
Devin Singletary was a disappointment last week, as he put up just 4.8 fantasy points despite a good matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Singletary (who is currently banged up) will now face the Seattle Seahawks, who have been much tougher against opposing running backs. Malik Nabers is officially ruled out, which will allow Seattle to focus on stopping the run.
In Seattle’s two home games this season, their defense has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Singletary didn’t practice on Wednesday due to the groin injury he suffered during Thursday’s loss. I would look elsewhere if you have other options at running back.
Rico Dowdle | Dallas Cowboys | RB 27
Week 4 Stats | RB 22 | FPts 13.1 | Att 11 | Yds 46 | Tgts 1 | Rec 1 | Yds 15 | TDs 1 | Confidence 15%
In Week 4, Rico Dowdle outproduced Ezekiel Elliott (picture below) and found the endzone for the first time this season. Dowdle has looked more explosive than Elliott and has drawn the start from Head Coach Mike McCarthy in the past three games.
However, Dowdle has failed to surpass 46 rushing yards in any game this season and has a tough Week 5 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has given up the 3rd-fewest rushing yards (347) and the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Running Back SPOTLIGHT | SIT
James Conner | Arizona Cardinals | RB 11
Week 4 Stats | RB 15 | FPts 18.3 | Att 18 | Yds 104 | TDs 1 | Tgts 1 | Rec 1 | Yds 9 | Confidence 70%
I understand that sitting James Conner will be tough with four teams on a bye. However, fantasy managers should temper their expectations for Conner. In 6 career games against the 49ers, Conner has failed to score 11 or more fantasy points in 4 of the matchups, and has never rushed for 100 yards.
The 49ers haven’t given up more than 100 yards on the ground to an opposing player this season. Conner’s likely outcome has him finishing as more of an RB2 or high-end flex.
In case you missed his earlier article, Mychal Warno‘s weekly Stock Up/Stock Down installment has a few suggestions for last minute trades that can help at the running back (and other) position(s). Leave feedback on Twitter @DynastyDadMike.
If you enjoyed this micro view of our start/sit series, check out the full Positional Matchups chart from data Nerd Brad Custer (@MonCalFF) complete with IDP for every one of your starting spots:
