Welcome to the Positional Matchups Report, aka POSAFPA. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
How to Use the Positional Matchups Table
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between D’Andre Swift (RB-CHI) and Jakobi Meyers (WR-LV). For Swift, find CHI in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 34%. That’s an extremely positive matchup. Next, for Meyers, find LV in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -34%, which is an extremely negative matchup. Given both players are averaging around 12 points per game, I’d lean Swift.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Target
The Colts at the Jaguars is an interesting matchup. Vegas odds put this game at a respectable 46-point over/under with a 2.5-point spread favoring the Jaguars. It might not be a boat race, but it should be close enough for both teams to keep pace.
Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco will be leading the Colts this Sunday. In Week 4 the Colts quarterbacks combined to put up 20.2 points (QB7) in a mildly negative matchup. We don’t know if Richardson will play yet but whoever starts would be a high-end QB2.
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs should be in your lineups in most leagues. Jonathan Taylor is dealing with an ankle injury so the Colts might lean on the passing game. Realistically, we see both finish as top 24 wide receivers.
On the other side, Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment so far, averaging just 12.3 fppg over the first 4 weeks. Surprisingly, that makes him a middling QB2. He could surpass that in this soft Colts matchup. Evan Engram is nursing a hamstring injury he sustained in Week 2 and is considered day-to-day. I’d recommend looking to Brenton Strange if you need a flyer as the positional matchup for tight ends is exceptional.
In Week 4, D’Andre Swift saw 16 carries and 7 targets. Roschon Johnson was the other riser, getting 7 carries for 26 yards and a touchdown. Swift will continue to get the majority of the work. but don’t overlook Roschon as he has leapfrogged Khalil Herbert on the depth chart.
Check your waivers for Emanuel Wilson. He had a healthy 42% rush share in Week 4. This week he faces the Rams who have been giving up 29% more fantasy points to opposing running backs. Don’t sleep on Wilson who could be a sneaky flex play.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Avoid
Sam Darnold has been showing up for fantasy managers just like he has for the Vikings. Averaging 16.6 points per game this season, he’s sitting at QB5 on the year. That said, I’d be a little shaky starting him in Week 5. The Jets have been poison for quarterback fantasy production. Chances are you have to start Darnold if you have him, but if you don’t, treat this as a giant SELL NOW flag.
Jakobi Meyers has been a serviceable option as a flex player in the first part of the season. Now, Davante Adams is out and potentially being traded. Subsequently, Meyers is expected to have a substantial workload moving forward. Conversely, he’ll face a challenging Denver defense that has allowed one-third fewer points to opposing wide receivers. Last week, he had 10 targets, so it will be tough to sit him. If you do put him in your lineup, realize he’ll likely be a tepid flex play. If you are forced to start him, just hope he finds the end zone multiple times.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving have been fine enough given what it likely cost you to acquire them. This week however they may underdeliver. They face the Atlanta Falcons who have been stingy with fantasy points for opposing running back. Between a split backfield and a tough matchup, these two are best left on your bench.
Pat Freiermuth‘s appeal for fantasy is touchdown upside. In Week 4, despite a favorable game script he came up empty. By and large, this reinforces that Justin Fields will be the biggest red zone threat on the Steelers. You’re better off streaming tight ends in high over/under games than settling for the 5 points a game Freiermuth is likely to give you while Fields is under center.
IDP Matchups
IDP Positional Matchups to Target
Bobby Wagner is an automatic starter of course, but don’t overlook Frankie Luvu this week in what looks to be a very nice matchup. Luvu’s been averaging about 15 points a game in IDP fantasy formats, subsequently, this could be an excelent week for him.
If you’re in need of Defensive Linemen help, chances are you can throw a dart at the Miami D Line and come up with usable numbers. Zach Sieler, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Calais Campbell have all been usable week to week. Their positional matchup in Week 5 is great, so consider them all must-starts.
Green Bay’s secondary has been much improved this year, and so has their fantasy production. Jaire Alexander is dealing with a long term injury so look to Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard for every week starts. Additionally, if you need a streamer don’t overlook Keisean Nixon.
IDP Positional Matchups to Avoid
Jacksonville’s linebackers are all kinds of banged up, so there aren’t many viable starters outside of Chad Muma, who has been underperforming for fantasy. Therefore, pass on all of them this week as they face the Colts who have held up well against opposing linebackers.
There aren’t actually many bad defensive back positional matchups this week, though San Francisco’s Ji’Ayir Brown is the only guy in the secondary I’d be rolling out this week for the Niners. Even Brown isn’t a sure-fire start.
Additionally, for IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s IDP Players to Add for Week 5:
Positional Matchup Team Trends
Rush-Funnel Teams: The Bills, Bears, Cowboys, and Dolphins have all been giving up fantasy points to opposing run games.
Pass-Funnel Teams: The Falcons, Lions, and Vikings are all forcing teams to move the ball through the air more than on the ground.
IDP Targets: The Seahawks, Rams, and Panthers are the top targets for defensive backs, and while Andy Dalton has changed things in Carolina, he’s not immune to turnovers. Cleveland is shaping up to be the matchup target of the season for defensive linemen and linebackers. Therefore plan ahead when looking at streaming options on waivers.
Final Word
As we get into the bye weeks, the Positional Matchups tables become more and more important for our flex positions. If your roster is hurting and you’ve already sent away your future capital, I’d recommend taking a look at Vegas odds for high-scoring games. Next, find the teams in these charts to figure out which matchups might be exploitable. A great positional matchup on top of a high-scoring game could give you that big upside from guys who normally wouldn’t crack your bench.
To read more from Dynasty Nerds, see our most recent article from senior nerd Mychal Warno on Stock Up/Stock Down players after Week 4:
