Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits all season long. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings. Here are the quarterback starts and sits from staff writer Mike Hicks.
One thing to keep in mind when making start/sit decisions; it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. Don’t take the players below out of (or put them into) your lineups unless the alternates are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are sourced from Fantasy Pros expert consensus rankings (ECR) and our terminology is for a 12-team PPR league.
Our writers answer all start/sit questions on Discord before the games exclusively for the #Nerdherd. The advanced metrics used in this article are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite, use code NERDS for 25% off your own data suite subscription or All-in bundle.
1 QUARTERBACK START
BAKER MAYFIELD I V. PHI I 19.7 FPPG I ECR 15 I 90% CONFIDENCE
Yes, in Week 3, Baker Mayfield had an off week after finishing as QB 27 with only 9.5 fantasy points. But we can’t forget what he did the previous 2 weeks. For the season, Mayfield is QB6 with 19.7 FPPG. He has the league’s 4th-highest pass completion rate at 74.4%. Mayfield is also using his legs in 2024. He is averaging 18.3 RuYD/G, which is almost double his 2023 average. He will look to have a bounce back game in Week 4 against a Philadelphia Eagles team that he passed for 337 yards and 3 TDs against in the 2023 playoffs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense is 11th in the NFL, giving up 14.6 PPG to QBs (Fantasypros). The Eagles gave up multiple passing TDs in their first two games in 2024. Mayfield will look to get back into the form he was in during the first two weeks of the season, where he averaged 237 passing YPG. Look for Mayfield to get Chris Godwin heavily involved. Godwin has a first read target percentage of 38.2% thus far in 2024. You should be confident in starting Mayfield in all formats in week 4, including starting him over QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Anthony Richardson.
1 QUARTERBACK SIT
PATRICK MAHOMES I V. LAC I 16.2 FPPG I ECR 9 I 80% CONFIDENCE
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0, however, the offense is not firing on all cylinders yet. Through 3 games, Mahomes is QB14, and his highest single-week performance is QB14. In past seasons, Mahomes has pushed the ball down the field. So far, in 2024, he has a deep ball rate of 5.4%, which is 32nd (FantasyDataPoints). One thing holding Mahomes back in 2024 is a 35th-ranked ADOT of 4.6, and he also has 4 INTs.
The Chargers are a tough matchup for Mahomes. They are 6th in the NFL, giving up 11.4 FPPG to QBs (Fantasypros). They are also 10th in the league, giving up 195.3 YPG. With a -7 spread and an Over/Under of 40, the game should have a low-scoring game script. I expect Mahomes to have a performance similar to his season so far. Even though you probably drafted Mahomes as a top-end quarterback, you should consider sitting him in 1QB leagues. I don’t expect him to finish in the top 12 this week.
SUPERFLEX QUARTERBACK START
DESHAUN WATSON I V. LV I 15.5 FPPG I ECR 25 I 75% CONFIDENCE
Deshaun Watson has struggled to meet his lofty expectations throughout his career, and 2024 is no exception. Watson is QB16, averaging 15.5 FPPG. Watson has passed for 551 yards and 3 TDs. Through 3 games, he has also had 85 yards rushing and 1 TD. Watson has the 6th-best 1st-read attempt rate at 73.3%. With the magnifying glass on him more than ever, Watson will need a good Week 4 performance to get the naysayers off his back.
Watson faces the Las Vegas Raiders, who have also had their struggles this season. The Raiders are 21st in the NFL, giving up 17.4 FPPG to QBs. They’re giving up the 12th most passing yards, surrendering 710 yards this season. Watson and the Browns’ offense will look to get back on track in Week 4. He will outperform his current ECR and should finish as a top-20 QB in week 4. I recommend starting Watson in all fantasy formats.
SUPERFLEX QUARTERBACK SIT
JORDAN LOVE I V. MIN I 17.4 FPPG I ECR 18 I 40% CONFIDENCE
ordan Love looks to return to the field in Week 4 after suffering a sprained MCL at the end of the Green Bay Packers Week 1 game in Brazil. Love is QB11, averaging 17.4 FPPG (1 game). He passed for 260 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT in Week 1. Love is averaging 0.5 FP/DB (fantasy points per dropback). He is currently listed as Questionable after missing the last 2 games but is trending toward playing against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Minnesota Vikings are 8th in the NFL, only giving up an impressive 12.8 FPPG to QBs (Fantasypros). The Vikings have given up 812 passing yards in 3 games but have only surrendered 2 passing TDs this season. Love will look to get back on the field in Week 4 and continue what he started before the injury. However, the Green Bay Packers will look to the running game to ease Love back into the offense. Sit Love in all fantasy formats if you can for one week before you reinsert him in your fantasy lineups. Love is a tricky sit, but he could finish outside the top 24 in Week 4.
QUARTERBACK SPOTLIGHT
TREVOR LAWRENCE I V. HOU I 11.7 FPPG I ECR 23 I 15% CONFIDENCE
To say that Trevor Lawrence has struggled to start the season is an understatement. Lawrence is currently QB31 with 11.7 FFPG. In 2023, Lawrence averaged 251 passing yards and averaged 17.7 FPPG. Unfortunately, Lawrence has struggled to live up to expectations. His completion rate is only 52.8% (33rd) among QBs (min 25 dropbacks). Not only does Lawrence need a big performance, but so do the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars as a team.
If at all possible, keep Lawrence on your bench in Week 4. But his performance against the Texans is bigger than just Week 4. If he doesn’t turn around his season soon, his dynasty value and outlook could start to plummet more than it already has. His success or failure could also affect the job security of head coach Doug Pederson. The spotlight is on Lawrence and the Jaguars this week.
If you enjoyed our start and sit series for each position, you’ll definitely enjoy our Positional Matchups to Exploit from staff writer Brad Custer (@MonCalFF):
