Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits all season long. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings. Here are the running back starts and sits from senior writer Mychal Warno.
One thing to keep in mind when making start/sit decisions; it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. Don’t take the players below out of (or put them into) your lineups unless the alternates are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are sourced from FantasyPros expert consensus rankings (ECR) and our terminology is for a 12-team PPR league.
Our writers answer all start/sit questions on Discord before the games exclusively for the #Nerdherd. The advanced metrics used in this article are courtesy Fantasy Points Data Suite, use code NERDS for 25% off your own data suite subscription or All-in bundle.
Running Back START
NAJEE HARRIS | v. IND | 13.5 FPPG | ECR 22 | 85% Confidence
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed 58.7 fantasy rushing points to their opponents which is the 10th highest in the league. The defense has also allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards (537) to opposing offenses. Najee Harris is currently 11th among running backs for rushing yards(209), and with backfield teammate Jaylen Warren expected not to play, this appears to be a fantasy equation that will equal success.
BRIAN ROBINSON JR. | v. ARI | 14.5 FPPG| ECR 15 | 90% Confidence
Currently, Las Vegas Sportsbooks have Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders as the highest Over/Under point total of the week at 49. According to SI.com, the Cardinals’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points to road running backs dating back to last season. Early reports state that Robinson’s backfield teammate Austin Ekeler (concussion) is unlikely to play. Robinson should be in line for a heavy workload and finish as a top-12 running back option.
Running Back FLEX
BUCKY IRVING | v. PHI | 10.2 FPPG | ECR 30 | 55% Confidence
I may have been a few weeks early on Bucky Irving, but it now appears Tampa Bay sees what many fantasy managers see: Irving is the more explosive back between himself and Rachaad White. Irving leads the team with 154 rushing yards and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry over 25 carries. White has just 66 yards on 31 carries. Irving has the endorsement of Bucs coach Todd Bowles who stated that Irving “earned more snaps” going forward.
Tampa needs to jump-start a rushing attack that is currently 27th. It could potentially happen Sunday against the Eagles with Irving at the helm. Irving did not practice Thursday but stated that he will play against the Eagles. This is a situation to monitor closer to kickoff.
Running Back SIT
J.K. DOBBINS | v. KC | 13.8 FPPG | ECR 19 | 50% Confidence
Kansas City’s 46.1 rushing fantasy points allowed are the 10th fewest in the NFL. In Week 3, Kansas City held Bijan Robinson to a 1.9 yards per-carry average (YPC). In Week 2, Zack Moss was held to a 2.8 YPC. Los Angeles will be going into Week 4 extremely banged up on the offensive side of the ball with Justin Herbert (ankle) and offensive tackle Joe Alt (MCL) unlikely to play. Kansas City will be focused on shutting down Dobbins. I anticipate Dobbins to finish more as an RB3 this week.
D’ANDRE SWIFT | v. LAR | 10.4 FPPG | ECR 29 | 10% Confidence
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. After my recommendation to start D’Andre Swift in a fantastic matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, Swift managed just 4.2 fantasy points and was outproduced by his teammate Roschon Johnson. So, while the matchup against the Rams is a good one on paper, Swift is tough to trust.
Running Back SPOTLIGHT | SIT
JONATHAN TAYLOR | v. PIT | 17.5 FPPG | ECR 10 | 70% Confidence
Jonathan Taylor has been playing like an RB1 for fantasy teams this year. Taylor is going to have his toughest test of the season against a Steelers defense that has allowed the least amount of rushing fantasy points (21.4). Pittsburgh has not allowed a running back to eclipse over 68 rushing yards and is the only team to not allow a rushing touchdown this year. You may not have better options, but your expectations of Taylor should be diminished.
If you enjoyed our start and sit series for each position, you’ll definitely enjoy our Positional Matchups to Exploit from staff writer Brad Custer (@MonCalFF):
