FANTASY PREVIEW with Exclusive Statistics: EXPLOIT THE MATCHUP in Week 4

The Week 4 Fantasy Preview was curated by senior staff writer Steven Pintado using statistics from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. If you want access to these stats (and dozens of other proprietary figures) sign up here and use promo code NERDS to save 25% on a Data Suite or All-In subscription. Without further ado, let’s dig in to the fantasy matchups!

To better navagate the article for your players please click on the matchup links below.

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

New Orleans Saints (2-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Indoors
• Atlanta Faclcons are favored (-3) with an Over/Under 42.5
• Watch on FOX

Our first game this Sunday is between the Saints and the Falcons. The Saints will look to bounce back on offense after a poor Week 3 performance. It starts with getting more consistency from their pass catchers outside of Chris Olave.

For the Falcons, it’s about getting their passing game to be more of a threat. Kirk Cousins must use his star players in the passing game to help produce fantasy points on Sunday. For all that is good, please get the ball to Kyle Pitts.

Quarterbacks

• Falcons have kept opposing quarterbacks under 220 passing yards in all 3 games this year.
• Kirk Cousins has been under 15 fantasy points in 2 of his first 3 starts.

Running Backs

• Bijan Robinson‘s rushing output has been disappointing at 4.1 YPC, but his 14% target share is encouraging if he can maintain it.
• Alvin Kamara has averaged 95 total yards in 13 career games vs. Atlanta but has scored only 3 times.

Pass Catchers

• Chris Olave averages 66 yards in 6 career games vs. the Falcons.
• The Saints have allowed 45 yards or more to opposing slot receivers. Darnell Mooney should be in for a solid outing.

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Soldier Field
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Cloudy with Rain Showers
• Chicago Bears are favored (-3) with an Over/Under 40.5
• Watch on FOX

We have the broken Rams traveling to Chicago to play the Bears. The Rams are a tough team that will stay competitive, but it all goes through Kyren Williams. He has the favorable matchup for this Rams offense.

We finally saw a solid passing game on the Bears’ side of the ball. The Bears should do well against one of the bottom three defenses in football. I’d expect the Bears offense to thrive for fantasy managers on Sunday.

Quarterbacks

• Matthew Stafford is top-5 in passing yards, but he averages 5 fantasy points per game less than the rest of the top 5 passing quarterbacks.
• Caleb Williams has five turnovers in the first three weeks.

Running Backs

• Roschon Johnson saw 70% of his touches in the first half of the Week 3 game. Johnson may start eating into Swift’s touches.
• Kyren Williams is lighting up fantasy opponents, but his 3.0 YPC could be a concern.

Pass Catchers

• The Rams have allowed 40 or more yards to opposing tight ends this season.
• The Rams have allowed a 100 yard receiver in each game this year.

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Minnesota Vikings (3-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Lambeau Field
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Sunny
• Green Bay Packers are favored (-2.5) with an Over/Under 43.5
• Watch on CBS

We have a big divisional game between the Packers and the Vikings. The Vikings had some potential scares with Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson, but they should be good to go on Sunday. I’d expect this offense to continue to run through these two players. This is the Aaron Jones revenge game, so expect big things from the running back.

The Packers are even more hopeful to get Jordan Love back despite the good game from Malik Willis. The Packers need to find more balance on offense to help Josh Jacobs find better holes in this game.

Quarterbacks

• The Vikings and Packers defenses have both forced five or more interceptions in the first three weeks.

Running Backs

• When Aaron Jones sees 14 or more carries this year, he runs over 90 yards rushing. Jones will get his revenge game.
• Emanuel Wilson (5) has more targets than Josh Jacobs (4) through 3 games.

Pass Catchers

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Indoors
• Pittsburgh Steelers are favored (-2.5) with an Over/Under 40.5
• Watch on CBS

We have the Pittsburgh Steelers facing off against the Indianapolis Colts. The surprising (3-0) Steelers need to continue playing boring football. That means it should be a solid game for the Steelers backfield and their defense.

It will be a challenging game for the Colts since the Steelers are a top-two defense in football. The team may need Anthony Richardson to do more with his legs to help this offense have a decent fantasy outing.

Quarterbacks

• Justin Fields had his 3rd best completion % of his career in Week 3.
• Anthony Richardson has regressed, with fewer rushing yards per game, and averages only a 49% completion percentage.

Running Backs

• The Colts have allowed a 150-yard rusher two times in three weeks.
• The Steelers run defense has not allowed a running back to finish higher than RB19 this season.

Pass Catchers

• Steelers have allowed 40 or more yards to slot receivers. Josh Downs is a sleeper after coming off 5 targets in his first game last week.
• When George Pickens sees at least 7 targets, he has produced 50 or more yards.

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Denver Broncos (1-2) vs. New York Jets (2-1)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ MetLife Stadium
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Cloudy
• New York Jets are favored (-7.5) with an Over/Under 39.5
• Watch on CBS

The Denver Broncos are heading to New Jersey to play the New York Jets. It will be a battle of two strong defenses, seeing who can cause more chaos for the offense. Rookie Bo Nix looked solid last week but may regress against an elite Jets secondary.

It could be a bad day for the Broncos offense. The Jets will likely take advantage of the Broncos’ average run defense with their dynamic duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen to help win the day.

Quarterbacks

• Bo Nix has yet to throw for a passing touchdown and plays for the Jets, which have only allowed one this season.
• The Broncos have not allowed an opposing quarterback to throw over 200 passing yards yet.

Running Backs

• Breece Hall (5) has only two more red zone touches than Braelon Allen (3).
• Javante Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin have combined for less than 100 total rushing yards in 3 games.

Pass Catchers

• Garrett Wilson‘s production will dictate how often he is not lined up against Patrick Surtain. Surtain has only allowed a combined 53 yards in coverage against Mike Evans, George Pickens, and D.K. Metcalf.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Raymond James Stadium
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Rain Showers
• Philadelphia Eagles are favored (-1.5) with an Over/Under 43.5
• Watch on FOX

We get two strong NFC contenders in the Eagles and the Buccaneers. The Eagles may be without their two top receivers who expect the team to rely heavily on Saquon Barkley in this game. Despite the tough matchup, Dallas Goedert will get his chance as the no. 1 option in the passing game.

For the Buccaneers, it’s time to get back to throwing the ball well. The Eagles’ secondary is lousy. Baker Mayfield needs to rebound and get the ball to his elite duo at receiver to help our fantasy teams.

Quarterbacks

• The tush push is dead. Jalen Hurts has just 2 carries inside the 10 after having 29 last season.

Running Backs

• Bucky Irving is outperforming Rachaad White with a 6.2 YPC compared to White’s 2.1.
• Saquon Barkley is averaging over 1 rushing TD per game and is playing a Buccaneers team that has given up 1 rushing TD per game.

Pass Catchers

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Bank of America Stadium
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Sunny
• Cincinnati Bengals are favored (-4.5) with an Over/Under 46.5
• Watch on FOX

A matchup we didn’t expect to see is the (0-3) Bengals at the (1-2) Carolina Panthers. This has to be a get-right game for the Bengals, who just need to continue to light up the score. The offense should be able to do well again like in  Week 3.

For the Panthers, it’s the Red Rifle revenge game in which Andy Dalton faces his former team. We saw the teams can play well against the Bengals defense so expect the Panthers offense to have another great day in fantasy.

Quarterbacks

• Andy Dalton has played the Bengals as the starter twice and has averaged 170 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.

Running Backs

Pass Catchers

• Diontae Johnson saw a 37% target share in Week 3. Now that Adam Thielen is OUT expect Johnson to continue to see a high percentage of targets.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) vs. Houston Texans (2-1)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ NRG Stadium
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Indoors
• Houston Texans are favored (-6) with an Over/Under 45.5
• Watch on CBS

This matchup is between two AFC South teams—the Jaguars and Texans. The Jaguars will look to forget a horrible Week 3 performance. It begins with trying to establish the run game, which should help open up the passing game. It would be a favorable matchup for the Jaguars’ passing game if they could figure it out.

The Texans will look to take advantage of a bad Jaguars defense and put up another top-tier fantasy performance for us.

Quarterbacks

• Trevor Lawrence averages 270 yards with a touchdown and a turnover in 6 career games vs. Houston.
• Jacksonville has given up a QB1 performance to each opposing quarterback to start the season.

Running Backs

• Travis Etienne ranks 26th in carries this year. The upside is limited for Etienne, which could affect his success in this game.

Pass Catchers

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Washington Commanders (2-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 4:05 pm @ State Farm Stadium
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Indoors
• Arizona Cardinals are favored (-3.5) with an Over/Under 58.5
• Watch on FOX

This is one unexpected matchup as the (2-1) Washington Commanders take on the (1-2) Arizona Cardinals. Rookie Jayden Daniels finally opened up his passing game, making the difference for fantasy managers. Daniels and the rest of the offense should succeed similarly against the Cardinals’ below-average defense.

The Cardinals will look to reestablish the run, as it was unsuccessful last week. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. should be in for a field day against the worst secondary in football.

Quarterbacks

• This year, Kyler Murray has 5 carries for 40 or more yards in each game.
• The Commanders have allowed 9 passing touchdowns in 3 games.

Running Backs

• Austin Ekeler is OUT so Brian Robinson Jr. should average over 20 touches.

Pass Catchers

• The Commanders have allowed 9 receiving touchdowns over the first 3 weeks.
• The Cardinals have allowed just 1 receiver over 60 yards this season.

New England Patriots (1-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 4:05 pm @ Levi’s Stadium
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Sunny
• San Francisco 49ers are favored (-10.0) with an Over/Under 40.5
• Watch on FOX

This game won’t be as interesting as the bad New England Patriots take on the 49ers team. The Patriots need to trust the run game, as it helped them find success for our fantasy teams. The 49ers may be missing some of their stars, but Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings have stepped up to keep this 49ers offense relevant. The 49ers stars may be returning in this game.

Quarterbacks

• Brock Purdy has the worst YAC % (yards after catch per completions in the league at 26%.

Running Backs

• The 49ers’ run defense has allowed an 80-yard running back in each game this season.
• Jordan Mason‘s upside is limited, with a bottom-5 target share (4.1%) among starting RBs.

Pass Catchers

• The Patriots have allowed a slot receiver to produce WR3 or better finish the last two weeks.

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Cleveland Browns (1-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 4:25 pm @ Allgegiant Stadium
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Indoors
• Las Vegas Raiders are favored (-2.5) with an Over/Under 36.5
• Watch on CBS

We go from one trainwreck to another as the Browns travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. The Browns need to get more creative on offense or give DeShaun Watson more time in the pocket. If they can return to their roots with the run game, they have a favorable matchup in Week 4.

The Raiders need Gardner Minshew to step up, as they are on thin ice with him. We could see a quarterback swap if the Raiders offense fails to move the ball.

Quarterbacks

• Gardner Minshew was benched in Week 3. He did not have a long leash.
• Deshaun Watson has struggled when holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, with a 48% completion % on 29 attempts.

Running Backs

• Zamir White has just one red zone touch through three games.
• The Raiders run defense has allowed a running back 80 or more yards in each of the first three games.

Pass Catchers

• The Raiders have allowed a touchdown to opposing slot receivers each week this year. Elijah Moore could be the ultimate sleeper in Week 4. If not, expect Jerry Jeudy to score.
• Jakobi Meyers has 60 yards in two of his first three games.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 4:05 pm @ SoFi Stadium
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Indoors
• Kansas City Chiefs are favored (-7.5) with an Over/Under 39.5
• Watch on CBS

We have the battle for the AFC West between the Chiefs and the Chargers. The Chiefs have owned the Chargers since the Mahomes era. It would be great to see Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce light up this defense as they have done so many times.

The Chargers run offense may be stopped once again as the Chiefs run defense is elite. The Chargers offense could be in for a rough day especially if there is no Justin Herbert.

Quarterbacks

• Patrick Mahomes averages 280 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns in 10 career games against the Chargers.

Running Backs

• Carson Steele dominated the touches over Samaje Perine 19 to 9 in Week 3.
• J.K. Dobbins finally out carried Gus Edwards 15 to 3 in Week 3.

Pass Catchers

• Travie Kelce has averaged 24 fantasy points per game over the last 3 years against the Chargers.

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Buffalo Bills (3-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Sunday: 8:20 pm @ M&T Stadium
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Light Rain
• Baltimore Ravens are favored (-2.5) with an Over/Under 46.5
• Watch on NBC/Peacock

We are at Sunday Night Football as the Bills take on the Ravens. The Bills have been on fire on offense and can’t be slowed down. I expect Josh Allen to take advantage of a poor Ravens secondary and produce many fantasy points.

It’s another decent matchup for the Ravens for their backfield once again, but all fantasy managers want the Ravens to be playing in a negative game script. The matchup makes for their tight ends should have them involved if they want to win this home game.

Quarterbacks

• Lamar Jackson is on pace for 1400 rushing yards. You should expect Jackson to have a high rushing floor in this game.
• The Ravens have allowed an opposing passer over 250 yards in each game.

Running Backs

Pass Catchers

• Buffalo has allowed a TE1 in each week this season.
• In back-to-back weeks, the Ravens have allowed 90 or more yards to an opposing tight end.
• Khalil Shakir’s target share of 19.18% is double that of the next Bills receiver.

Tenneesse Titans (0-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Monday: 7:30 pm @ Hard Rock Stadium
  • Field Type: Grass
• Weather – Clear Night
• Miami Dolphins are favored (-1) with an Over/Under 36.5
• Watch on ESPN

Our first of two MNF games starts with the Titans and Dolphins. This could be a messy game between Will Levis and whoever plays quarterback for the Dolphins. If the Titans want to succeed on offense, it starts with getting their run game going against one of the worst run defenses in football.

The Dolphins have a similarly favorable matchup to get their run game going against a poor Titans run defense. The Dolphins need to find a way to get the ball to their top two receivers—to keep fantasy managers from going insane.

Quarterbacks

• Will Levis has 8 turnovers in his first 3 games, and Miami ranks 13th in takeaways.

Running Backs

Pass Catchers

NO/ATL LAR/CHI MIN/GB PIT/IND DEN/NYJ PHI/TB CIN/CAR HOU/JAX

WAS/ARI NE/SF CLE/LV KC/LAC BUF/BAL TEN/MIA SEA/DET

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) vs. Detriot Lions (2-1)

Pre-Game Fantasy Preview

• Monday: 8:15 pm @ Ford Field
  • Field Type: Turf
• Weather – Indoors
• Detriot Lions are favored (-3.5) with an Over/Under 46.5
• Watch on ESPN

Week 4 ends with a great matchup between Seattle and Detroit. Seattle will struggle on the ground, so expect the passing game to see an uptick in production. Geno Smith and his receivers must be on their A-game to continue their undefeated season.

The Lions need to show that the Seattle defense is not as good as they look on paper. You can be sure they will attempt to run the ball down the middle of their defense until they cave. This should be a good one that goes to the last moments but hopefully gives us some decent fantasy production.

Quarterbacks

• The Lions’ secondary allowed just one passing touchdown and forced one turnover per game.

Running Backs

Pass Catchers

That’s it for Week 4! Feel free to reach out on Twitter (X) @coachstevenp if you have any comments on the new format, what you want to see more of, or how we can make this more accessible.

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