Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits all season long. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings. Here are the running back starts and sits from senior writer Mychal Warno.
One thing to keep in mind when making start/sit decisions; it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. Don’t take the players below out of (or put them into) your lineups unless the alternates are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are sourced from FantasyPros expert consensus rankings (ECR) and our terminology is for a 12-team PPR league.
Our writers answer all start/sit questions on Discord before the games exclusively for the #Nerdherd. The advanced metrics used in this article are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite, use code NERDS for 25% off your own data suite subscription or All-in bundle.
RUNNING BACK START
TONY POLLARD | v. GB | 16.8 FPPG | ECR 19 | 90% Confidence
Pollard has an excellent Week 3 matchup against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers run defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Pollard is coming off back-to-back double-digit fantasy point performances (18.4 and 15.2 fppg). Pollard has also seen an increase in his snap count percentage where he went from 61% of the team’s snaps in Week 1 to 67% in Week 2, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Pollard’s backfield teammate Tyjae Spears suffered an injury late in the Week 2 game against the Jets. Head coach Brian Callahan stated Spears would be “day-to-day” with his ankle injury after not practicing on Wednesday, which would provide an even higher workload for Pollard if Spears misses Week 3.
Don’t forget about Pollard’s availability in the passing game as well. Pollard has been getting strong work as a receiver with 8 receptions on 10 targets. Those numbers rank fourth in running back targets and fifth in receptions this season. Pollard also ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts (33). Pollard is tied for second on the Titans in target share percentage behind only Calvin Ridley.
D’ANDRE SWIFT | v. IND | 6.6FPPG| ECR 25 | 85% Confidence
While the Chicago Bears offense has looked terrible so far, the Colts rushing defense has been worse. Indianapolis is allowing a league-high 474 rushing yards. In Week 1, Joe Mixon finished as the overall RB2 with 26.8 fppg. The Colts defense followed up that performance by allowing Josh Jacobs to rush for 151 rushing yards and 13.1 fppg.
Indianapolis also placed DeForest Buckner, who has been one of their best defensive lineman, on injured reserve. D’Andre Swift has not been impressive, but this is an excellent matchup for any running back and gives Swift an opportunity to help jump start the struggling Bears offense.
RUNNING BACK FLEX
CAM AKERS | v. DET | 2.5 FPPG | ECR 59 | 45% Confidence
As of the writing of this article, Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury and Dameon Pierce is not practicing while dealing with his own injuries. If Mixon and Pierce miss Week 3, Cam Akers will be the lead back for Houston—currently the tenth ranked rushing offense.
With so much talent in the offense already, Akers will be able to capitalize on the opportunities he gets and produce for your fantasy team. The health and availability of Joe Mixon will be something to monitor and may come to a gametime decision on Sunday.
RUNNING BACK SIT
NAJEE HARRIS | v. LAC | 8.7 FPPG | ECR 24 | 40% Confidence
Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, The Los Angeles Chargers rank first in the least amount of fantasy points per game allowed to the running back position with 15.1 fppg (FPDS). While Najee Harris is tied for sixth in carries (37), he has not been productive with those touches, averaging 8.7 fppg (without topping 9 fantasy points in a game).
While Harris sees a bulk of the carries, he is limited in his pass-catching role as teammate Jaylen Warren is the more dynamic player in the passing game. Harris is a risky flex start at best this weekend.
DEVIN SINGLETARY | v. CLE | 11.9 FPPG | ECR 28 | 10% Confidence
Devin Singletary is coming off of a strong performance where he ran for 95 yards and a touchdown against division-rival Washington Commanders. Week 3 brings a tougher matchup on the road against a stingy Cleveland rush defense. According to Sports Illustrated, in Cleveland’s last 10 home games, their defense has allowed just four rushing touchdowns and a mere 68.6 rushing yards per game.
RUNNING BACK SPOTLIGHT | SIT
JOSH JACOBS | v. TEN | 12.8 FPPG | ECR 10 | 75% Confidence
Josh Jacobs has had a very solid start to the season with 235 rushing yards. However, those came against weaker rush defenses in Philadelphia and Indianapolis. Jacobs will get his toughest test of the season when he faces the Titans defense.
Tennessee held Bears running back D’Andre Swift to 30 rushing yards and New York Jets running back Breece Hall to 62 rushing yards, respectively. With Jordan Love unlikely to play in Week 3, look for Tennessee to make a conscious effort to stop Jacobs and force the game into the hands of Malik Willis.
