It’s been some time since my last dynasty trade breakdown article which can be found here The Art of Dynasty Trading – Dynasty Nerds. From now on my goal is to bring weekly quick-hitting trade evaluations from trades done by our NerdHerd members! If you are not a member of our Discord community join here. Not only is it a great place to give and receive valuable feedback from your fellow peers, but I also spend a considerable amount of time answering questions as well.
The below is the standard information I would like to receive to properly review trades that have been submitted. The more context I have around why you completed a trade, the better analysis I can give for which side I feel won the trade at this particular time. Just remember a trade that might look lopsided in one direction today could look completely different six months from now!
Dynasty Trade Format
| League Size | Number of Teams |
|---|---|
| League Type | 1 Quarterback (1QB) or Superflex (SF) |
| League Format | Lineup or Best Ball |
| Number of Starters | Excluding Kicker and Defense |
| League Scoring | 0.5 point per reception (PPR), 1.0 PPR, 0.5 tight-end premium |
| Team Status | Contender, Middle, or Rebuild |
The Dynasty Trade
This trade was submitted on August 19th by Alex (apbucs21)
| League Size | 12 Teams |
|---|---|
| League Type | SF |
| League Format | Lineup |
| Number of Starters | 10 |
| League Scoring | 0.5PPR |
| Team Status | Contender |
Context
The three first-round picks are projected to be late-round picks. The current roster is below.
QB: C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Bucky Irving
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison, Drake London, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
TE: Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert
Picks: No 1st-round picks until 2027
The Dynasty Trade Breakdown
Anytime you have a top-end dynasty asset being moved in a trade, you know it’s going to cost a lot to acquire that player. That was certainly the case in this particular trade. Giving up three 1st-round picks for a running back is a hefty price to pay in today’s dynasty trade economy, but a price I might be willing to meet for Bijan Robinson—our consensus dynasty no. 1 overall running back.
Best Case
Some might say that Robinson was disappointing in his rookie season last year, finishing as the RB17 in fantasy points per game (ppg) with 14.5 (tied with Derrick Henry). However, he was also tied for the second-fewest total touchdowns out of that group of 16 running backs ahead of him. As we all know, the Atlanta Falcons struggled with quarterback play last season, but the addition of free agent signing Kirk Cousins and rookie 8th overall pick Michael Penix Jr. should provide better offensive production this coming season (and into the future).
Taking a look at Alex’s team, he has an incredibly young and strong team, particularly at wide receiver, with 4 top-10 dynasty WRs to pair with a top-3 quarterback in C.J. Stroud. His RB room was looking a little weak before this acquisition, but he now has two of the top three dynasty running backs and this could be the move that puts him over the top!
Worst Case
As mentioned above, sending three rookie first-round picks for a running back usually is not the best move for the long-term success of your dynasty team given how short the careers of running backs last in the National Football League. Having no 1st-round picks for the next three years also limits roster flexibility if anything were to go wrong in the way of injuries or players underproducing their expectations. Even after the addition of Bijan Robinson, this running back room is very thin. An injury to any of the top three guys could very well derail Alex’s season before it begins.
Final Dynasty Trade Thoughts
Khalil Herbert is also more than just a throw-in piece coming back in this deal. I like Herbert as a backup running back in a murky backfield to go alongside D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. My personal roster strategy is to typically not hold my own starting running back’s handcuff (backup), but that can be seen as an added bonus in this trade given Alex already has Swift on his roster.
Overall, I am going to grade this trade an 8 out of 10. This is truly only a trade I would make as a high-end contender in win-now mode. With the roster at hand, acquiring a talent like Bijan Robinson can be the difference for this team to win that coveted fantasy championship!
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