The Green Bay Packers’ record in 2023 is a bit misleading as it was almost a tale of two seasons. They stumbled out of the block, losing six of their first nine games. Jordan Love, the heir apparent to the jettisoned Aaron Rodgers, struggled to gel with a group of young, raw receivers before things started to click.
The Green Bay Packers finished the season by going 6-2 over the last eight games, including wins versus Detroit and Kansas City. Love was phenomenal down the stretch and finished with over 4,000 yards and 32 TDs.
The offense ranked 12th in the league with 22.5 points per game, supported by a passing attack that ranked in the top 10 in most categories. The defense was strong—particularly versus the pass—ranking 10th with 20.6 PPG.
Long-time running back Aaron Jones was the key offensive departure, and the team brought in a vet to replace him. The team filled key needs in the draft and was quiet in free agent. The offensive line took a bit of a hit after losing Jon Runyan Jr. and David Bakhtiari. The Pack still boast a top-10 offensive line and develop rookie linemen as well as any team in the league.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love
After the strong second half to 2023, Jordan Love was looking to sign a new contract and threatened to hold out to begin the 2024 season. The Packers responded by inking Love to a 4-year deal worth $220 million, tying him for the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Now it’s time for Jordan Love to show that he’s worth the price tag and continue his positive development. He’s a smart quarterback who doesn’t take unnecessary risks with the ball. Love has a strong arm and really benefitted from several years of being behind Rodgers. Love was a raw prospect, and I had reservations about him. But once again, sitting a young QB for a few years proved to be the smart move. Take note, NFL teams.
Love is not a rushing threat per se, yet he is mobile and added 247 yards with 4 TDs rushing. Having a strong offensive line helped as Love was only sacked 30 times—some of which can be attributed to him holding on to the ball too long. In the early part of the schedule, Love was getting acclimated which resulted in a five-sack game, along with a pair of four-sack games. Only 11 sacks came in the second half of the year.
The outlook for 2024 is strong with the young receiving group having another off season to continue to develop with Love. He could push for a top-five season and lead the Packers back to the playoffs.
Projection: 68.9% Completion, 4,425 yards, 36 TDs, 10 INTs, 215 yards and 5 TDs rushing
The Backups
Honestly, let’s hope it never gets to the backups. I know that’s a bit harsh, but the QB depth chart is mostly young, unproven players. Sean Clifford is a second-year player and is currently listed as the backup. He was largely inconsistent and underwhelming in college, so I was surprised he found his way onto an NFL roster.
The only backup worth rostering in fantasy is rookie Michael Pratt. The Green Bay Packers drafted him in the fifth round in the most recent draft after he had a solid college career at Tulane. Pratt is a smart QB who will take care of the ball and profiles as a solid NFL backup.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs
Out with the old and in with the “new.” After relying on Aaron Jones for what seems like a dozen years, Jones is off to the division-rival Minnesota Vikings while the Packers brass brought in veteran Josh Jacobs to be the lead back. The team signed him to a four-year, $48 million contract that runs through 2027.
Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022, rushing for 1,653 yards and scoring 12 TDs. Unfortunately, his efficiency dropped drastically in 2023 as he rushed for only 805 yards in 13 games at a paltry 3.5 yards per carry (YPC).
Much of Jacobs’ inefficiency can be attributed to the Las Vegas Raiders’ offense (or lack thereof) as they rotated quarterbacks and struggled to find offensive consistency. Jacobs has been inconsistent, yet perennially underrated his entire five-year career. He comes to the Packers and will finally play with a strong offensive line and a scheme that can score consistently.
Jacobs will be the lead back, have big games, and be a reliable pass-catching back. I foresee his efficiency bouncing back for a nice 2024 season at age 26.
Projection: 240 carries for 1,155 yards, 9 TDs, 45 receptions for 305 yards and 2 TDs
The Stable
AJ Dillon was re-signed and will still be the backup—even after the departure of Jones. Fantasy managers with Dillon on their team had a slight glimmer of hope, but the Green Bay Packers quickly squashed that hope. “Quadzilla” is a phenomenal RB2 in the NFL’s eyes and holds some value for fantasy. AJ Dillon is typically good for around 800 total yards and a handful of TDs. Dillon can be started in a pinch or in the event of an injury. His production has been inconsistent, so the team doesn’t want to rely on him.
#Packers MarShawn Lloyd was a mid-late 2nd in your Rookie Drafts
— Dave Heilman NFL (@DynastyDorks) June 18, 2024
📝Josh Jacobs’ contract – 4 Years, $48 Million (Looks like 2 years, possibly only 1)
✅POTENTIAL OUT (5th League Day Roster Bonus – $5.93M: 2025, 1 YR, $14,800,000; $9,375,000 DEAD CAP
💲Cap Hit Vs. Dead Cap💲… pic.twitter.com/mLbSXV2JCx
Rookie Marshawn Lloyd is an interesting prospect and a player I am stashing. He’s an elusive runner who can break through contact. He excels at making defenders miss and improved his last two years in college. If Jacobs doesn’t work out as the team hopes or suffers a long-term injury, Lloyd could have a larger role, and Dillon could still be the complementary big back.
Emanuel Wilson, Ellis Merriweather, and Jarveon Howard are also on the roster. Based on the three talented running backs above, these backups may be on the Green Bay Packers roster, but they should not be on a fantasy roster.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson
As effective as Jordan Love seems to be, you would assume the pass-catching options should be equally bountiful for fantasy—but you would be wrong. This receiving corps is tough to get a read on.
The WR1 is Christian Watson, and he’s quite possibly the most unsexy alpha wide receiver of any team. In 9 games last season, he only caught 28 passes for 422 yards and 5 scores. He was a bit better as a rookie and has shown flashes of being a true WR1 with the ability to put up big games.
The talent to be a dominant receiver simply isn’t there for Watson. The Packers feel like they have several WR2/3s and it does ultimately work as Love spreads the ball around. Watson has tools that could develop. He’s got great size and plays hard, runs good routes, and understands how to create separation with leverage.
Coming from a small school, we expected Watson to take a little time and I expect him to slowly put it all together. But his upside is limited and he doesn’t necessarily need to be a truly dominant wide receiver to have fantasy value.
Projection: 65 catches for 975 yards and 9 TDs
Romeo Doubs
Another third-year receiver, Romeo Doubs, also came from a smaller school (albeit at least a Division I school). Doubs emerged as a viable WR2 in this offense, which gives him fantasy relevance.
His scouting report and draft profile outlined the obstacles to his NFL success. Doubs has the ideal size for an outside receiver and is tough and competitive. He has strong hands and catches well in traffic. But his movement skills were wooden, and his route running skills were limited. Doubs doesn’t have the speed to break away and is pedestrian after the catch.
All of this has improved somewhat, but you can see his limitations. Still, with nearly 100 targets last season, Doubs proved to be an effective option. He had 674 yards and 8 scores and could easily replicate that in 2024. I project that as being close to his ceiling and would provide fantasy managers with a nice WR3 option.
Projection: 65 catches for 755 yards and 7 TDs
Jayden Reed
While not being the “WR1,” Jayden Reed may have the most upside of any receiver on the roster. He’s the slot receiver and had nearly 800 yards on 94 targets and reached the end zone 8 times.
As a Michigan State fan, I watched Reed closely for several years as the Spartans criminally underused him. The flashes of talent showcased a quick receiver in play speed and route running. He’s got good ball skills and uses positioning to create separation. Reed gets to top speed (4.45 40-yard dash) in a hurry and can make people miss in the open field. His play effort was the main question as lack of focus plagued him at times.
Reed has a defined role in the slot and his ability to break big plays on short catches makes him particularly dangerous. He may never get the targets of a high-volume slot receiver, but will be more dangerous and have higher yards after catch.
Projection: 80 catches for 1,010 yards and 8 TDs
The Corps
Dontayvion Wicks was able to play extensively in 2023 and made the most of it. The rookie only started 6 games but was peppered with 58 targets, catching 39 for 581 and 4 TDs. Wicks is a valuable depth receiver for fantasy, and Love has a connection with him. Wicks is likely to see snaps consistently and if either of the outside receivers misses time, he is potentially startable.
Malik Heath and Bo Melton contributed as rookies and gave the Packers some depth. Both are rosterable only in deep-roster leagues.
Many other young names could fight for the scraps, but none are inspiring fantasy options. Samori Toure, Grant DuBose, and Julian Hicks are amongst the players on the depth chart who are not fantasy options.
Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave
Another rookie last season, could provide massive value in fantasy this season. Luke Musgrave caught 34 passes for 352 yards and a score last season but was injured before the offense really started clicking.
Checking back to his rookie profile, Musgrave had a strong receiving profile coming from Oregon State and could stretch the field from the tight end position. He’s a versatile TE but is best receiving or in-line and needs development as a blocker.
On an offense with receivers devoid of elite talent, the TE could thrive, and Musgrave could have a big role going forward. He’s a sleeper for many fantasy sites; it’s easy to see why. I’m not fully there yet, but the path to a low-end TE1 is clear, and Musgrave could get there in a hurry.
Projection: 55 receptions for 680 yards and 5 TDs
The Bench
Going into his second season, Tucker Kraft will begin tight end season on the PUP list. He’s an interesting player as well and had a lot of the same attributes that Musgrave possessed as a prospect. Kraft is a player I am keeping on my rosters, especially in TE-premium leagues.
The rest of the tight ends don’t possess any fantasy value. Tyler Davis, Ben Sims, and Joel Wilson will likely never see enough snaps to contribute in fantasy.
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