Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds have discussed every NFL team and broke down the players’ value for the upcoming season. We offered dynasty advice on what you should do with certain players in differing situations. Coach Steven (@CoachStevenP) wraps up our 32-part series with the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
The most important player for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is coming off career lows in his NFL career and fantasy. He had his worst season since 2019 as he failed to top over 4,200 passing yards and was under 30 passing touchdowns. His receivers forced him to throw a career-high in interceptions with 14. Mahomes has had double-digit interceptions in four of his six years as a starter. You should expect a full bounce-back season for the top quarterback in the league.
Mahomes’ receiving group has improved drastically from 2023 to 2024. He has new additions in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, who can help take the top off a defense. Second-year receiver Rashee Rice is dealing with off-the-field issues but is productive on the field. Mahomes still has one of the best players in the league in Travis Kelce, who should bounce back after an injury-riddled year.
While you should expect an increase in passing touchdowns, his rushing touchdowns should also increase (from zero). He has had two or more in every season he has started. Mahomes should be able to return to a top-three finish in fantasy with improved weapons after last year’s debacle. Mahomes remains the best option for any contending or rebuilding team in dynasty football.
Worst Case
The worst case is something bad happens to Mahomes, and he misses significant time during the season. That would likely lead to veteran Carson Wentz being the starter. Wentz could potentially provide QB2 numbers in this offense. He has a solid arm and has a running ability to his game. His decision-making on the field is questionable, but he could be a stable quarterback. After Philadelphia, Wentz spent a season in Indianapolis a few years ago and was QB17 on the season. He may not win you many weeks, but hopefully wouldn’t lose you many. While it was Week 18, Wentz put up 27 fantasy points as a member of the Rams last year. It’s not a situation we are hoping for, but it could provide value if that time comes.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco is coming into 2024 with a real opportunity to break out in his third season. Last year, Pacheco was RB14 overall despite missing a few games. He continued in his second year by outdoing what he did as a rookie. He finished with over 1,000 all-purpose yards and 9 touchdowns. Pacheco was ranked 17th in the yards after contact per attempt, showing his physical ability with the ball in his hands. He was tenth in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) rushing grades.
Pacheco’s big step up was his improvement in his receiving ability. It was partly due to Jerick McKinnon missing most of the second half, but Pacheco looked great. He may not have gotten enough targets to be considered elite, but he was 11th in PFF’s receiving grades among running backs.
The issue for Pacheco is durability on the field. He had dealt with a shoulder injury throughout his NFL career, which forced him to miss two games last year. That is primarily due to his physical running style. Outside of that, Pacheco looks to continue to improve without McKinnon on the team. The rest of the backfield doesn’t provide much competition from Pacheco from being a lead back. He is in an offense that generally has a top-half fantasy running back on the team.
Pacheco is a player that may be more obtainable than many dynasty owners think. If you are contending, I look to acquire Pacheco this season. This offense will scare defenses to play back more, allowing Pacheco more opportunity to produce. A top-five fantasy finish is not out of the question for Pacheco in 2024 as long as he can stay healthy. A more realistic finish for Pacheco is a borderline RB1 this season.
Battle of the Backups
As we said, this backfield is likely Pacheco’s to dominate in 2024, but someone else will get an opportunity. Pacheco is a high-risk injury running back, so we could see someone start a few games from here. First up is former first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has been considered a bust up to this point. “CEH” has fallen apart since his decent rookie season. He did deal with injuries but was outplayed by Pacheco and McKinnon. This is likely his backup job to lose since he has the most experience and can also be involved in the passing game.
Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make the roster, either. He likely won’t have much standalone value with Pacheco on the field unless he sees an expanded receiving role. Edwards-Helaire should be on dynasty benches at this time until the season starts. He will be an RB3 with minimal upside if something happens to Pacheco.
The rest of the backfield consists of Deneric Prince, Keaontay Ingram, Louis Rees-Zammit, Emani Bailey, and Carson Steele. Rookies Steele and Bailey are likely not to make the roster. Steele’s only way is as a fullback and Bailey’s as a returner. Ingram isn’t a player I have heard much about in Kansas City. His 2.2 yards per carry (YPC) doesn’t scream roster spot in dynasty right now. Rees-Zammit, the former Rugby player, could make the team as the primary return man. I don’t see much value unless something happens to Pacheco. He is a very interesting player who should at least be rostered in 2024 for the time being.
The player with the most potential to unseat Edwards-Helaire as the RB2 is Deneric Prince. Once again, he is shining in training camp. He wasn’t a great prospect coming out of college, but the Kansas City Chiefs seem to like him. The reports state that Prince is being used with the starters at times and playing a lot of the RB2 role in the offense. He has been a hot name for dynasty waivers and should continue to be until we see how this backfield develops. Prince could end up as the RB2 in a situation that hangs on Isiah Pacheco’s health. Deneric Prince could be stashed as a deep sleeper for 2024 or until we get the final 53-man roster.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice
Rashee Rice has been a question mark all offseason after his off-field issues. We still have no word on whether he will be suspended for the 2024 season. These things get caught up in court and last longer than they should. It may be the perfect time to buy low on Rice for his upside in this offense.
Rice got off to a slow start as a rookie and was more of a part-time player. He would eventually rise to a full-time player and dominate the receiver position. Over the season’s final six weeks, Rice would be fourth in fantasy points per game. He averaged 86 yards and had 3 touchdowns in that span.
Rice was very good in fact. He was third in yards after contact (653 yards) and tenth in yards per route run (2.34). Despite bringing in new receivers, Rice shouldn’t have too much competition. Rice works better underneath, showcasing his talents to gain more yards than downfield. He’ll likely be competing more with Travis Kelce, who could be a concern but is older. Rice should be looked at as a high-end WR3 that has the upside to finish as a top WR2 in fantasy. There is a growing concern he’ll miss several games, but once he returns, he should be at least a flex player.
Hollywood Brown
The WR2 spot on the Chiefs is up for grabs. Hollywood Brown is a name player who signed a one-year deal with the Chiefs. Brown has flashed great upside in fantasy, but injuries burden his career. He has only played one healthy season in the NFL. Brown has had a nice career, with an average of 700 yards and 5 touchdowns over the last 4 years. In his one full season, he showed he could put up numbers with 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2020.
Brown has dealt with inadequate QB play for most of his career but gets a chance to be Mahomes’ deep threat. Mahomes has a big arm, and it was horrible to watch him throw to Marquez Valdes-Scantling last year. In 2023, it was a career-low season for Brown across the board since his rookie year. Brown has always had high target numbers in his career, but his metrics have been poor. Brown is not a player who can see fewer targets and produce in fantasy. We mentioned often over the last few years when Brown was the WR1, he dominated, but not when DeAndre Hopkins was on the field. Brown fades when there is someone else as the target leader.
Brown comes into a crowded receiver group, and he may not have flex appeal if he is limited in his targets. If Rice gets suspended in 2024, Brown may have a chance to give weekly value. I think Brown is, at best, a WR4 in fantasy since his best season was only WR26 overall. I would look for Brown to be a startable piece in best ball player for 2024.
Xavier Worthy
We move over to the rookie Xavier Worthy. He is such an interesting player in fantasy football, and his blazing speed and explosiveness broke the record for the fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine. Worthy lands with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are a high-power passing offense that has experience with a speedy receiver.
Worthy’s issue is that he will have competition for the ball with Rice and Kelce, who are likely to see the bulk of the work. Worthy will be fighting with veteran Hollywood Brown for third or fourth targets in the offense. Worthy may be limited in the number of targets he gets early on. The good thing for him is that he probably only needs a catch or two to break one for 70 yards and score. How often that happens is the real question.
Mahomes has been in the top 12 in deep ball attempts since being named the starter. We saw issues last year with his deep threat not working well. Worthy’s speed could help him create separation between those deep balls. It also remains to be seen if they will use Worthy on screen plays, which helps open up his game. We’ll see if he can produce at his size, weighing around 170 pounds. Not many receivers can produce great fantasy points with those numbers. We’ve seen it twice in the last four seasons with Devonta Smith and Tank Dell, but it’s a small sample size.
The Chiefs have done a poor job of getting rookie receivers to produce in their offense outside of Rashee Rice. Worthy will indeed have his moments, and as the season rolls on, may turn into a boom-or-bust flex option in 2024.
Best of the Rest
The rest of the Chiefs receivers have some interesting names. Justin Watson may not be so interesting, but he has been on the team consistently for the last two seasons. He has played as the third receiver with high snap counts, playing one of the two outside roles. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been fantasy relevant.
Mecole Hardman is back once again after failing to be something away from Kansas City. Unfortunately, Hardman is likely back with the team as their special team’s returner and should do well for that. In fantasy, he should not be considered at all. Skyy Moore is likely to be cut after training camp.
Kadarius Toney continues to see some hype in camp after a terrible 2023 season. Toney had failed to do much as a pro so far. To be honest, he has never surpassed his 186-yard game during his rookie season against the Cowboys in any full season since. He has dealt with drops and turning the ball over to the other team. Toney is reportedly being used as a running back as well, but I don’t see him having a full-time role on the team. I’d still look to sell off for whatever you can. He shouldn’t be a full-time player, which will continue to hurt his value in 2024.
Tight End
Travis Kelce
The star of the skill players is Travis Kelce, who is 35-years old. In 2023, Kelce had a down season. It was his first season since 2015 in which he didn’t have 1,000 yards. He had five touchdowns, his worst since 2019. He had his fewest targets (121) since 2017. He had his lowest fantasy points (14.8) since 2016. Kelce has been a dominant beast at tight end for almost a decade.
Let’s not forget he was banged up heading into the season. The lack of talent around him forced defenses to focus on Kelce over anyone else. Can he still be an elite option at age 35 in 2024? We’ve seen some tight ends do it at Kelce’s age. Tony Gonzalez was solid from 35 to 37. Players like Ben Watson and Shannon Sharpe produced over 11 fantasy points per game at age 35.
The 2023 season looked like a concern for Kelce starting to age, but he proved that he could still be a beast on the field during the playoffs. He had over 70 yards in each game with 3 total touchdowns. In 2024, Kelce should continue to be a top-two tight end. Every contending team should look to have Kelce as their starting tight end. He still has a great shot to finish as the TE1 overall. The improved weapons should only help him on the field, not take away targets. Teams will have to sit back more with Brown and Worthy, allowing Kelce to see over-the-middle targets and produce. Kelce should bounce back to double-digit touchdowns after five in 2023. We must continue to trust Kelce as long as he plays at a high level.
Worst Case
If Kelce gets hurt, that would be almost as bad as the team losing Mahomes on offense. After Kelce, Noah Gray, Jared Wiley, and Irv Smith Jr. are on the depth chart. To be honest, let’s remove Smith from the equation. I’ve heard very little about him at training camp so far. He was once interesting, but I don’t see him as anything if Kelce gets hurt. It comes down to Gray and Wiley to take over if something happens.
Noah Gray is the veteran who has backed up Kelce for the last three seasons. He has improved each year, reaching 305 yards last year. He isn’t at Kelce’s level, but he could serve as a high-end TE2 if thrust into action. He had 3 catches for 31 yards in Week 1 of last year when Kelce missed that game.
Wiley would likely need to be outstanding at camp to beat out Gray for the backup job. He is more of that pass-catching type, so he could see time even as Gray’s backup. He is a versatile player who knows how to separate as a tight end. He proved his senior year that he has the talent to make it as an NFL tight end. His blocking would weigh him down from being a full-time player as a rookie.
Thank you for reading! For further fantasy advice, contact me on X @CoachStevenP or on the Dynasty Nerds Discord! My content is aimed at those in the #NerdHerd who want easily digestible information to help them win a dynasty championship.
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