Anthony Richardson was drafted fourth overall in the 2023 draft. However, his rookie season was cut short due to injury. He is on the verge of a breakout season, building on what we saw in his rookie season. Richardson’s rare mix of physical attributes, mental toughness, and dedication has him poised to become a dominant force in the league. Can he seize the moment and emerge as the QB1 overall in his second season?
2023 Season
Unfortunately, he only played four games before a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. Even though his season was shortened due to injury, he showed glimpses of his fantasy ceiling. Even in a small sample size, Richardson showed flashes of what we can expect in the future. His upside is based on his ability to be a dual-threat option at quarterback. He had two top-five fantasy performances in 2023, finishing as QB4 and QB2 in Week 1 and Week 4, respectively. He scored 20-plus fantasy points in two of the four games he started. Richardson averaged 18.4 points per game in his four starts, tied for 13th in the NFL. His dual-threat ability is evident to the eye.
Richardson was responsible for 18% of the Colts designed run plays in his small sample size. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but the Colts offense in 2023 showed what could be. The Colts ran the RPO at the highest rate in the league, at approximately 18%. Richardson and the offense in 2023 showed what the future could hold for them.
2024 Season
What could hold Richardson back from having a breakout sophomore season? The biggest concern is his health. The biggest question for fantasy owners is, can he stay healthy for an entire NFL season?
The Colts have a healthy Richardson entering 2024, but they also have other things going for them. They also have a healthy Jonathon Taylor; at wide receiver, they have Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell. They also have a crowded tight end room, including that of Jelani Woods and Kyle Granson.
In 2023, the Colts ran the ball 43.5% of their offensive place. With an offense that includes a healthy Richardson, they could be closer to a run rate of 50% in 2023. Much of their offense is RPO, and it does nothing but help improve his chances of being a top-level fantasy quarterback.
QB1 Overall?
Does Richardson have a chance to be the QB1 overall in 2024? Well, why not? His rushing upside and overall athleticism give him the upside to be a top-five QB in fantasy football and, more importantly, a chance to become the overall QB1. His rushing upside will play a significant factor in his fantasy success. Since 2014, all quarterbacks who finished as overall QB1 were in the top ten in QB rushing yards. Only two of those performances were out of the top six, and those were from Patrick Mahomes, who isn’t known as a rushing quarterback.
If he can stay healthy, Richardson can have over 500 yards rushing this season. Since 2014, half of the QB1 performances had over 500 rushing yards and finished in the top five in QB rushing yards. Three QB1 performances in the last ten seasons (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray) were in their second year in the NFL. Potent offense – check, athleticism – check, rushing – QB check, young talent – check; if Richardson can stay healthy, QB1 is possible in 2024.
Dynasty Value
Even with a shortened rookie season, Richardson has a sustained dynasty value, which is no surprise for a top-five NFL draft pick. His current Dynastynerds SF startup ADP is 11 overall. With a healthy season and a possible top 5QB performance, he could be a top-five overall fantasy asset by the end of 2024. Is it more likely that he is a top-eight asset at the end of the season? Yes, but that’s an improvement in his current value. Age means less at QB than at other skill positions, but Richardson is only 22. He still has a lot of time to learn and gain experience and is still far from reaching his prime.
The other fantasy assets of the Colts are also important when looking at Richardson’s dynasty outlook. Taylor is 25 years old and is under contract until after the 2026 season. Michael Pittman will be 27 years old at the beginning of the season but is also under contract until after the 2026 season. That happens to coincide with Richardson’s contract year before the club option, which, at this point, will more than likely be picked up. Yes, the Colts still have two young receivers in Downs and Mitchell, but besides them, Richardson’s weapons could look a lot different in a few years. It isn’t something your decisions are hinged on this far out. However, it is something to keep in mind when making future decisions.
So buy, sell, hold? His value is in such a perfect range that as long as you believe he can stay healthy, he is a buy in all formats and situations. If you are rebuilding and need an anchor quarterback, depending on how you feel about the 2025 draft class, he might be the perfect player to trade for. Richardson should also be considered a trade target for teams that are only a quarterback away from contending for a championship. If you are going to sell him, it’s probably a situation to wait for his value to increase even more in season to maximize the return on investment. If he does have an ultimate breakout season and is QB 1, then it would be hard not to cash out on his value.
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