Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds will be talking about every NFL team and breaking down the players on that team. We will talk about their value for the upcoming season and give dynasty advice on what you should do with that player if so.
Kirk Cousins, QB
Cousins has a new home in Atlanta after signing a big contract this offseason. The last time Cousins switched teams, he went to Minnesota and had a decent fantasy season. He would finish QB13 and throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. This time is different since he is older and coming off a torn Achilles.
An Achilles tear has a nine-month recovery to resume football activities, which would put Cousins at August 1st. We haven’t seen many quarterbacks tear their Achilles and return to football. One player that we could model after is Dan Marino in 1993. The year after he returned from his torn Achilles, he threw 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns. That was 30 years ago, so modern medicines have come a long way. The injury is a minor concern, but it may not affect Cousins much, especially how he plays football.
In a similar offensive scheme, Cousins has done well in the last two and a half years for fantasy football. He has been a QB1 for fantasy that stretch with Head Coach Kevin O’Connell. He comes from the same tree as Falcons Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson. Cousins may not need much time to adjust as their schemes will have similar details.
While Cousins may see a drop in overall talent, he’ll still have decent talent around him. London is a big-bodied receiver who can go deep downfield. Darnell Mooney is smaller but also has a deep threat to his game. Cousins was in the top 10 in deep ball plays and accuracy. He also gets a strong run game with Bijan Robinson to get him out of bad situations when the line collapses.
I think fantasy owners need to be a little hesitant with Cousins in 2024. If you have him as your QB1, then that is an issue. He is a much safer quarterback to have as a QB2. He could struggle early on, coming off a major injury, then ramp up as the season progresses. He is likely going to be more of a high-end QB2 this season. He doesn’t have a rushing floor and is taking a slight downgrade in talent. He should be okay but proceed with caution.
Michael Penix Jr.
Penix will likely come in as the backup to Cousins. There is a slight chance that it is Taylor Heinicke if the team thinks Penix needs more time to assume that role. We shouldn’t expect to see Penix much in 2024 besides maybe Week 18 of the season. If Penix were to start, then something terrible happened to Cousins, but you’ll have yourself a starting quarterback for 2024. Penix fits this offense well with his ability to throw the ball often and deep downfield. He doesn’t offer much in the rushing game. He could provide some QB2 numbers in this offense. He remains a buy-low option, as his value will only increase as the season progresses.
Bijan Robinson, RB1
The Falcons superstar is second-year running back Bijan Robinson. As a rookie, Robinson was solid, finishing with over 1,300 all-purpose yards and eight total touchdowns. He was ninth in snaps, third in targets, first in routes run, seventh in evaded tackles, and ninth in total fantasy points. Robinson split more time than expected with Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. They also had a 214 to 184 split in carries and split most of the red zone touches. Half of Robinson’s games were under 11 fantasy points, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at their overall stats.
Robinson looks primed to take another step forward in his development under this new leadership. OC Zac Robinson comes from the Rams, who have a history of using one running back when they believe they have a workhorse one. The RB1 is over 45% of the team’s total carries in the last two years. Bijan was at 40%, so an uptake in carries is possible. I wouldn’t be too concerned with Robinson losing targets in this new offense. Cousins, dealing with the recovery of Achilles, will need Robinson as a safety blanket in the short game. Robinson should be able to secure a high target share. Especially since the offense lacks many receivers, who can be a short area quick pass for Cousins.
You should be in on Robinson to take a year-two leap in this offense. He should see more opportunities on the ground while maintaining his receiving value. Robinson is one of few running backs with a shot as the RB1 overall in fantasy for 2024. He is locked and loaded as an RB1.
Tyler Allgeier, RB2
Allgeier comes in as the backup to Robinson, but last year, he was able to have some standalone value in fantasy. He had five games where he was RB2 or better in 2023. He would average around five fantasy points in the remaining 12 games. The question is, does Robinson’s ascension make Allgeier take a true backseat on the offense? He managed 180 carries and was 24th in red zone touches last year. He annoyed Robinson owners often by taking too many touches in the red zone, resulting in five touchdowns.
The Falcons may elect to run the ball more early on to ensure Cousins is good to go. That could help Allgeier see more early-season value as Cousins gets more comfortable in the offense. Last year, Allgeier had 36% of the carries. OC Zac Robinson was involved with the offense of the Rams the previous two years, and the backup running back only averaged 16.5% of the total carries. Unless Allgeier can improve his receiving work in 2024, he was second in yards per target and fourth in PFF receiving grade among running backs. He only had 23 targets but caught 18 for 193 yards last season.
I am concerned that Allgeeier will turn into a more highly valuable handcuff than an RB3, which he showed us last year. Allgeier would be great for a contending team to buy low on as a depth piece. If something happens to Robinson, Allgeier could easily have RB2 value in an offense that should often be in scoring opportunities.
The Reserves
If something happened to Robinson, Allgeier would get the bulk of the workload. Robinson would likely see more work if Allgeier were to miss time. The next man up would be Jase McClellan. McClellan would be interesting as his vision and agility stood out at the college level. He didn’t have the dominant career most Alabama running backs have had, but he managed 890 yards his senior year. McClellan would likely take over as the backup and have a role in the offense, but not enough to be a flex option with Robinson or Allgeier on the field. He would still be an interesting player to pick up and hold on to a taxi squad for 2024.
Drake London, WR1
London is hoping that 2024 will be his breakout season. He has dealt with inadequate quarterbacks over his first two seasons in the league. London still managed 850 yards in both seasons with six total touchdowns. Unfortunately, in fantasy, he has been WR36 or worse in both seasons. Last season, he had two top-12 finishes and eight games outside the top 36. Cousins’s arrival will significantly impact London for fantasy, but how much is the question?
This offense will be going through some changes, as it is expected to increase in passing attempts in 2024. The Falcons have been in the bottom ten the last two seasons. I expect the Falcons to be somewhere near the middle or better with Cousins. Despite the injury, Cousins was graded per PFF at 85.1 compared to Ridder and Heinicke, who were below 55. Since at least his time in Minnesota, Cousins’ WR1 has always been at least a WR2 or better in fantasy. That is something that London has not come close to in his career.
London isn’t much of a YAC receiver, as he has been outside the top 50 in both seasons. Seeing more accurate targets will be key, and Cousins is a greater deep ball thrower than London has ever had in his career. He has been under a 55% catch rate the last two seasons, so getting up to 60% will be critical for his production. You can confidently value London finishing as a WR2 in 2024, but there is a slight chance for WR1 value. If someone in your league values London as a WR1, I’d look to sell, as I don’t believe he reaches that in this offense. Don’t get that twisted; London will have his best season to date and finish as a WR2.
Darnell Mooney, WR2
After spending four years in Chicago, Mooney signed a three-year deal with the Falcons. Mooney may not be in a role like during his breakout 2021 season, where he had 1,055 yards and four touchdowns, but he’ll have a shot to do well. The Falcons outside of London and Pitts don’t have another receiver to challenge Mooney for playing time or targets. He is looking for that bounceback since he had 900 yards and three touchdowns over the last two seasons due to injuries and a bad passing offense.
Mooney was part of a Bears passing offense in the bottom six in passing yards per game compared to the Falcons’ new offensive scheme, which the Rams and Vikings influence. Both teams have been in the top 10 in the last three seasons when they had a healthy quarterback. Mooney can jump in as a deep threat, as he has shown that ability before, or he can use underneath and create yards after the catch. The upgrade for Mooney as a quarterback should get him 75-plus targets in 2024. For those on contending teams, you should look to buy low on Mooney this season. Mooney is at an all-time low after a horrible 2023 season. I’d expect the passing numbers to increase for the Falcons, and it will help Mooney return to flex appeal value for your lineups.
Rondale Moore, Slot
Moore is getting a chance to revive his career now in Atlanta. He was drafted in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft. He has failed to make an impact for three years with the Cardinals. Moore is a small slot guy who played the sixth most slot snaps in 2023. He had been a short pass receiver who ranked as the 98th receiver in ADOT last year. He has never gone over 500 receiving yards and just one touchdown each year. Moore does have some rushing ability where he had 178 yards in 2023.
He fell out of favor with the Cardinals and hopes to find playing time with the Falcons. If all goes right, we should expect the Falcons to see high pass attempts in 2024. It may be enough to keep Moore on your bench if something happens to Mooney or London. If the Falcons continue to use Moore like he was in Arizona, he won’t have much value in 2024. He should win the slot role and should be used as a weapon player rather than just a receiver. I wouldn’t waste my time trading for Moore on this offense. He could potentially have career highs or continue to be a bust in 2024. One thing to note is that Cousins had 75 targets to four different receivers in a season in each of the last three years.
Best of the Rest
The backups take steps down regarding talent after the top three. KhaDarel Hodge has been with the Falcons for the last two seasons. He has never been over 250 receiving yards in a season after eight years in the league. He did have a two-game stretch last year where he combined for 135 yards, but nothing outside of that. Ray-Ray McCloud, a slot specialist from the 49ers, was brought over this offseason. He is someone who could be used in creative ways on the field, but it would likely take an injury. I don’t see him having much value in the offense.
The team also drafted Casey Washington in the later rounds of the 2024 NFL draft. He is an outside receiver with NFL size. He is more of a physical who had poor production in college. He doesn’t have the speed or quickness to thrive at the NFL level. I don’t see him having much success in 2024, and he should stay on waivers or taxi squads. If something happens to the top three, I can’t imagine any having much weekly fantasy season for your dynasty rosters.
Kyle Pitts, TE
Pitts has been in the league for three years and is still only 23 years old. He flashed as a rookie with over 1000 yards but has a total of 1,000 yards in the last two seasons. In these first three seasons, he has dealt with poor quarterback players such as aging Matt Ryan, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke. With Cousins on the team, Pitts is looking to leap to elite-level fantasy, which starts in 2024. Pitts should come into the season as the first or second option in the offense.
Cousins has a solid history with tight ends over his career with the Vikings. Since his time in Minnesota, he had three tight ends and finished in the top eight in fantasy points. In the last two years, in a similar offense to the one he will play in Atlanta, Hockenson had 154 targets, 110 receptions for 997 yards, and six touchdowns. Those numbers are based on playing 18 games together in the last two years. If Kyle Pitts can be close to those numbers, he’ll have a solid chance to finish as a top-five tight end in 2024.
Pitts’ one concern has to be his touchdown totals, as he had six touchdowns in three seasons in the NFL. The improvement in the offense should help Pitts see more opportunities in the red zone, which he has been terrible at during his career. Hockenson was eighth in red zone targets, while Pitts was 34th in 2023. I think the yardage will be there for him, but if he can get to five touchdowns, that would be ideal for his outlook in 2024. I’d expect an increase in target share and passing yards in this offense under Kirk Cousins. Even if Penix has to start, Pitts would still be fine. He should be able to finish as a top-six tight end for 2024.
The Reserves
If something happens to Pitts, don’t look toward the backups. Charlie Woerner would be next up. He doesn’t even have 100 yards in a season after four years. He is mostly just a blocking tight end. They have John Fitzpatrick, who had one career catch. Ross Dwelly may have the most experience catching passes, but he isn’t locked to make the team in 2024.
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