2024 Fantasy Forecast: Los Angeles Chargers

Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds will be talking about every NFL team and breaking down the players on that team. We will talk about their value for the upcoming season and give dynasty advice on what you should do with that player if so.

Justin Herbert

Herbert is heading into a new offense that doesn’t seem to favor the passing game under Jim Harbaugh. Herbert has been a QB1 in three of the four seasons of his career. Is Herbert as good as he needs to be for dynasty?

Last year, he finished as QB17 as he would miss the final five games of the regular season. He was a QB1 through 14 weeks until he left with an injury. Herbert’s one elite season in 2021 happened because his weapons stayed healthy on the field for once. Now, Herbert has to deal with young, inexperienced pass catchers in a potential run-first offense.

During the summer months of the 2024 season, Herbert doesn’t have a true WR1 on the team but many WR2s and WR3s. We saw firsthand that the Chargers receivers had the ninth-highest drops in football last season. Herbert will have a few receivers with more than one year of experience in that offense, which could be a bad thing. Even their tight ends aren’t complete difference-makers in an offense. Of course, he won’t have to pass-catching specialist Austin Ekeler anymore.

The new OC, Greg Roman, never had offenses had higher pass attempts than runs in his career. Even when Roman and Harbaugh were with the 49ers, they ranked in the bottom three in pass attempts and pass rate from 2011 to 2014. The Chargers were a team that ranked in the top eight in each of Herbert’s first four seasons. We could easily see Herbert drop in his passing numbers in 2024. Herbert is the best pure passer that this staff has had. They have coached Lamar Jackson and Colin Kaepernick, who are not the same type of passer that Herbert is.

Herbert could still finish as a low-end QB1 for fantasy in 2024, but the odds of an elite season are out of the question. I think we could see an increase in Herbert being a weapon on the ground with his rushing ability. Herbert averages around 55 rushing attempts a season, but he could see a jump to 75 attempts in 2024. It may be enough to keep him afloat in a potential down season. As a rebuilding team, I’d look to buy Herbert, as his dynasty value seems to have dipped in this offseason. Herbert is going for a discount, and those rebuilding teams must take advantage of the value.

Backups

If something happens to Justin Herbert, say goodbye to the Chargers season. Next up would be Easton Stick. Stick was below average for fantasy, as he only had three passing touchdowns in five games. He could be a bye-week replacement but not a confident QB2 in fantasy. He is worth rostering as a handcuff if you are a Justin Herbert owner.

The OLD, BROKEN & YOUNG Backfield

Gus Edwards – The Old

It sounds like the name of a soap opera, but that is what this backfield is like in 2024. You have the old in Edwards, who is likely the starter heading into the season. He has had decent production, with 700 yards in four of his five seasons. He wasn’t always a high touchdown back, as he doubled his career touchdowns with those in 2023. Despite his older age, Edwards looks like a running back on the up. This Harbaugh/Roman offense will favor the running backs, and they will likely be in the top five in rushing attempts. In their time with the 49ers, we saw that their RB1 would have at least 250 carries in each season they were together.

While the carries look great for Edwards, his game has some concerns. He is already dealing with a foot injury that has knocked him out until hopefully just the start of training camp. Foot injuries are something I avoid in fantasy players before the season. His receiving role has been minimal. He has a career-high 13 targets. The 49ers running backs from 2011 to 2014 only had a high of 36 targets. There is a slight chance Edwards doesn’t need a receiving game and could run well and get double-digit touchdowns. The upside would be low-end RB2, but he’ll need those touchdowns. I’d be looking to sell high to those contender teams looking for an RB2 for their team.

JK Dobbins – The Broken

Dobbins, the broken, is looking for a second chance in the NFL. After his rookie season, Dobbins has only played nine games from 2021 to 2023. Like Edwards, Dobbins has been a very efficient runner on the field, with a 6.0 YPC on 134 carries. Also, like Edwards, Dobbins’ passing value is not good, or it’s more of a mystery. He has just 35 targets in 24 career games.

Dobbins may get some work, but it’s hard to trust a player whose legs have failed him too often for the position. I think everyone is trying to sell him right now, so I will stay away from him for the time being. He would be a needle in a haystack to be a weekly fantasy player in 2024.

Kimani Vidal – The Young

The young rookie, Vidal, is getting a lot of hype since being drafted by the Chargers. Vidal, out of Troy, was a prospect I had very high on my list even before joining the Chargers. His vision and IQ were off the charts when watching him on the field. He has the agility to make defenders miss but the contact balance to bounce tackles and continue to gain yards. Vidal’s draft value was down due to playing at Troy, and there were question marks on his blocking ability. He produced in the smaller school program behind one of the worst offensive lines in college football per PFF. While he didn’t have elite receptions in college, he still finished with 90 targets in his career.

If Vidal can be helpful as a pass-catching back, he may have a shot to earn more playing time in the offense. This coaching staff doesn’t have a good history with pass-catching running backs, but they also had more of a mobile quarterback in their time in San Fran. They started Frank Gore Sr., who had 118 on that coaching staff in those years. Vidal could have a similar value to Gus Edwards if he wins the starting job. Vidal could have a chance to be a workhorse since the two running backs on the roster have a history of injuries. If things go right, he may be worth the risk of throwing a second-round pick for a player with borderline RB2/RB3 value in 2024.

Ladd McConkey

Before getting into the receivers, you need to know a few things about how the Chargers receivers could be in 2024. Under Harbaugh, the receiver position has not been a strong suit for fantasy. From 2011 to 2013, the 49ers had only one receiver over 60 targets in a season. They would have one receiver averaging around 125 targets, with the tight end being second, averaging 90 targets. In 2014, that changed a bit with two receivers over 100 targets. As we talk about these receivers, you’ll see that it is anyone’s game to step up, but it’s likely not a good group to want in 2024.

Everyone is high on McConkey to show up for fantasy football in 2024. Early camp rumors are that Herbert and McConkey are building great chemistry. McConkey didn’t have the best college career but is a seasoned route runner and one of the best separators in the 2024 class. He is projected to get the work in the slot due to his ability after the catch and the missed tackles he showed. He could easily lead this team in targets in 2024 due to his talent on the field.

His value rises in more full PPR leagues, where he should be able to average five to six receptions per game. I do not expect McConkey to break out as a rookie but to put up a solid floor play in fantasy each week. He could have high reception value but average yards and touchdowns in an offense that should be run-heavy. McConkey could be a sell-high candidate for dynasty owners, especially for those who are contending and looking for players who can have more upside in 2024. McConkey probably has some WR3 value in full PPR leagues in 2024.

Joshua Palmer

Palmer may be the receiver you want in the Chargers offense. Palmer is now the longest-tenured receiver that Justin Herbert has worked with as he goes into year four. When Mike Williams went down, Palmer stepped up, playing as a WR3 for fantasy from weeks three to seven. He would have over 60 yards in four of five games until he was injured. Palmer has 17 career games where he has six-plus targets, and in those games, he thrives. He combined for 138 targets, 87 receptions for 1111 yards, and seven touchdowns. That is a WR1 finish.

Palmer should have one of the outside roles in this offense. Palmer could see career highs being this team’s potential WR1 in the offense. Palmer has some flaws, as he has missed time in the last two seasons with different injuries. He has suffered concussions in back-to-back seasons, which is a concern. Palmer is still going for late second or early third-round picks in dynasty trades. It’s a great time to take advantage of his value. Everyone is high on McConkey to be the WR1 when it could easily be the veteran for 2024. We’ve seen Palmer succeed in 2022 as a WR4 finish, so he could easily be a low-end WR3 for the 2024 season. Both players likely won’t, so I’d lean towards Palmer.

Quentin Johnston

Second-year receiver Johnston wants to silence his haters after a terrible rookie season. He finished with 431 yards and two touchdowns. He had opportunities to shine with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, but he missed times and failed to live up to his draft value. He wasn’t just bad but not efficient at all. He ranked outside the top 50 receivers in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per target, and yards per route. Johnston’s value this season is already dropping with the addition of McConkey.

Johnston has as much of a chance as any of the top three receivers to be the WR1 for Justin Herbert. He is used the right way in the offense. He needs to be put in a situation where he can get yards after the catch. He was decent, ranking 42nd last year in YAC. There is still this uphill battle that the Chargers scheme will focus way too much on the run, and Johnston won’t see enough targets. Coming out of college, he showed off elite speed and explosive playmaking ability, but that wasn’t shown much on the field. If the Chargers can set up more screenplays for Johnston, he can take it to the house. Due to his size, he was being used as a big-bodied receiver similar to Mike Williams, but that is not his game.

Johnston’s value is at an all-time low, and for a 2025 3rd-round pick, you may be able to acquire his services for the 2024 season. He could break out in year two with the offense not technically having a true WR1. It’s less likely due to how this offense plans on running in 2024, but never say never. You’re probably better off avoiding Johnston, as his role is not secure for this offense.

The Rest of the Receivers

The rest of the receivers have a mix of young and old players. DJ Chark is a new team member who signed a one-year deal. Chark has bounced around the last few years after showing promise in 2019 with the Jaguars. While he hasn’t lived up to that production, he has put up 500 yards in back-to-back seasons. He could have a chance to play on the outside if he can beat out Johnston or Palmer for one of those spots. He would produce when Chark could see a big target share in games. Could he see a 700-yard season with an improved quarterback situation? It probably won’t happen, so he is a bench guy for fantasy in 2024 at best.

Another receiver is Brenden Rice, the son of former NFL star Jerry Rice. Rice gained hype in the pre-draft process but was still drafted in the seventh round. He is a big physical receiver but lacks the explosion and quickness at the position. I doubt he will hear his name too often in 2024, but he should be a taxi squad guy for rebuilding teams. Injuries will need to occur for Rice to see work on the field. Derius Davis is there, too, as an undersized, shifty receiver who will likely return kicks. He likely won’t see any value unless you play in the SFB this year.

The Tight End Room

The Chargers have a bunch of journeymen players in their tight-end room. Will Dissly will likely be the starting tight end for this Chargers team. He is a fantastic blocker and was ranked high in 2023. Dissly never seemed to get another chance to show what he did in his early days with the Seahawks. He started his career with 31 receptions, 418 yards, and six touchdowns in his first ten games in 2018/2019.

I assume he’ll be on the field more for his blocking, but he could have a shot of a breakout season with the Chargers. Harbaugh had his tight end’s top two targets in three of four seasons with the 49ers. We’ve seen Roman utilize the tight end in Baltimore. In deep tight-end premium leagues, Dissly could be worth a pick-up to see if he can get off to a hot start if he wins the job. He is likely on waivers in most leagues right now.

Hayden Hurst also joined the Chargers this offseason. Hurst has been a semi-bust since coming into the league as a first-round pick with the Ravens. His will be his fifth team in seven years in the league. He has had a few decent seasons but lost his job multiple times. He is more of a pass-catching type of tight end. He could have some value in this offense, looking for veteran leadership, but it is hard to trust. He is more likely a sell than a buy low in dynasty.

Donald Parham and Stone Smartt are also those who both have flashed in their time in LA. There was a reason why Dissly and Hurst were brought in. Likely, none of these tight ends have TE1 value, but I could easily see one finishing as a low-end TE2 or top 20.

Get more of the Dynasty Nerds!! Download the Bettor Sports Network free app and listen to Dynasty Nerds Live hosted by Dynasty Price on Thursday night from 10 pm to midnight. When you download the app, you can call into the show with just a push of a button.