In a recent mock draft done by a member of the Dynasty Nerds team, I’ll be reviewing and breaking down the draft. We will discuss some reaches and values throughout the draft. I’ll recap a few of the rounds. I’ll pick a few teams at the end that I like for a contending and one for a long-term dynasty. The draft we are reviewing is a Superflex Tight End Premium with 12 teams. The draft was 30-second picks, so the league had to move quickly for the mock.
Rounds 1 & 2
In the first two rounds of this mock draft, you see plenty of quarterbacks go off the board. It’s the norm to see many quarterbacks go early in Superflex leagues. In total, 12 quarterbacks had to go off the board. In this TE premium league, Sam LaPorta is the only tight end to go off the board. One of the craziest things was that only six wide receivers got drafted in the first two rounds. We had almost as many running backs, with four being selected.
Some early values I see in the first two rounds are at the receiver position with Ja’Marr Chase and Marvin Harrison Jr. Seeing Chase go at the 1.12 was interesting since he could have made a case to be the first receiver off the board. He has the best long-term quarterback position compared to Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb, who both went in the top seven. In terms of where he was going pre-NFL draft, Marvin Harrison Jr was around the 1.12 to 2.02 range. Landing with the 2.05 is of great value for a generational talent such as this, despite the landing spot. Another value has to be Justin Herbert. If folks are concerned with the Chargers being a run-first team, then take the value. Herbert is in a better overall coaching situation with Jim Harbaugh. Take the 49ers, who rank third in rushing per game; Brock Purdy plays like a QB1 in fantasy. Herbert, in the second round, is a fantastic pick.
Some reaches in the first two rounds are hard to come by since there is so much great talent. Sam LaPorta going at the 2.07 based on how the tight end position fell is somewhat of a reach. The Lions have many mouths to feed in the offense that wants to run the ball. LaPorta is fantastic but became a little too touchdown-dependent late last season. If Anthony Richardson‘s manager didn’t also get Justin Herbert in round two, I’d say there was a reach there, but I’ll let that slide. I still have Hebert over Richardson in the dynasty. Bijan Robinson is another player I felt was a bit of a reach. Running backs in round one are tough to get your full investment to pay into, especially with Chase and Herbert still on the board.
Rounds 3 & 4
The wide receiver position had 12 go off the board in the next two rounds. There were a lot of great receivers to go later than I thought somewhere to go. There were some quarterbacks going off the board in this round and getting Jared Goff as your QB1 in round 4 was a solid value. We saw the first run of tight ends to go off the board, especially with the rookie Brock Bowers at the 4.10 spot. At this point of the draft, there were six teams with one quarterback or fewer.
In this area, many of the receivers that went in round three were of great value in the draft. From Tyreek Hill to Jayden Waddle. AJ Brown has at least another three years of elite fantasy production. He has averaged 1400 yards and nine touchdowns in his two seasons with the Eagles. He’ll be 27 by the start of the 2024 season. It’s fantastic value to get an elite type of player like Brown. You could argue that most of the receivers drafted were at value. Saquon Barkley at the 4.12 was a solid value for an elite running back. If he has a 49ers CMC production with the Eagles, you will get a steal in the fourth round.
Some players that felt like reaches are DeVon Achane and Tua Tagovaolia. Yes, even as a Dolphins fan, they are a bit of a reach. Tua is a solid quarterback, but there are concerns about his ability to produce, especially in the big games. In 19 career losses, Tua averages 225 yards and a 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Devon Achane as RB8 off the board in round four, still seems early to me. I don’t think he’ll be a full-time player, and it’s risky to trust him as your RB1 for a dynasty roster.
Rounds 5 & 6
In rounds five and six, some great players are being taken here, especially those who used to be part of the elites in fantasy. We see the veterans at tight end finally go off the board who can make the elite contending team thrive in 2024. Running backs fly off the board in these draft rounds with eight. There were as many here as there were in the draft’s first four rounds. Through the first six rounds, team One with Josh Allen has a great starting six that will be a strong contender in 2024. Team 11 has a ton of upside but is high risk, with youth sustaining it for three to four years.
Some concerns I have in these rounds are players like DeShaun Watson and Rachaad White. Watson has been a major disappointment with the Browns and doesn’t have the upside he once offered in Houston. As a team looking for a QB2, I’d look toward Cousins or Stafford in later rounds rather than go after Watson. White was a workhorse in 2023, but I don’t believe he will get over 300 touches again. I’d rather avoid White in round six than allow someone else to take the chance on White.
Rounds 7 & 8
Moving over to the following two rounds, we see the next tier of tight ends going off the board. It’s basically the last set of tight ends to go, as there is a gap after these rounds. The running back group has dropped, with only four backs going in these rounds. There were a few reaches in these rounds with Brian Thomas Jr. and Javonte Williams. For Thomas, it’s not that he doesn’t deserve to go in this area, but being ahead of players in the following round is a reach for me. Thomas is a high-upside player, but his value comes with risk. Javonte Williams’s value is dropping in dynasty, and there are rumors he may not even make the Broncos roster. The next few rounds have some very good running backs for contenders or rebuilders I’d prefer over Williams.
There were some solid values in rounds eight and nine. There were two players I liked in this range. Stefon Diggs was a late second-round pick in dynasty leagues last year and now falls to the eighth round. While Diggs is older, he still has some juice to play well for fantasy. Let’s not forget that Diggs was unhappy in Buffalo. While he may not be the same player, there is a chance for him to still lead the Texans in receiving in 2024. Evan Engram is going as the 11th tight end off the board in TE premium leagues in great value. Engram is coming off a 114 reception season and should be heavily targeted again.
Rounds 9 & Back
In the back half of this mock draft, some interesting values remain in dynasty. We saw all the low-end QB2s and QB3s go off the board. Those who took shots on the young players like Bo Nix, Will Levis, and Michael Penix could end up with steals in this draft if they perform. While most Nix and Levis could show off this year, it’s a great range to grab a boom/bust QB2 or QB3 for your dynasty roster in Superflex leagues. Even those who took shots on Sam Darnold and Garnder Minshew to be the starting quarterback in 2024 got solid value in round 15.
We finally saw many of the running backs go off the board here in the later rounds. They dominated the final seven rounds of this mock draft. I like the 2024 value you could get for Najee Harris, Kimani Vidal, and Tony Pollard. Harris will have every opportunity to thrive in this Arthur Smith offense that favors the running back position. If Gus Edwards isn’t ready by training camp, Vidal will have ample opportunity to steal the starting job for the Chargers. He went in round 14, which is great value for a potential starter. Tony Pollard’s value has fallen off after a bad 2023 season, and he is now in a split role in Tennessee. The new regime there went out of their way early in free agency to sign Pollard to a solid deal. Tyjae Spears went a whole round early, so I like Pollard’s value.
There were some decent values for the receiver position. Christian Watson going in round nine could be of great value to that owner. We still don’t know who is the WR1 for the Packers, but I’ll tell you this: when Watson was on the field, he led the team in targets. Khalil Shakir in round 14 is another great value for a player with the potential to shoot up rankings if he can break out in 2024. In this range, the receivers are all pretty solid picks. With rookies and aging vets, there weren’t too many bad picks. The Rashod Bateman hype has gotten him to be a top 15-round player, which I don’t think he was like that four months ago.
In a TE Premium league, great value was in the back half of the draft. Essentially, after Evan Engram went in round eight, only two tight ends went from round 9-11. Rounds 12 and 13 had a big run of the next tight end tier to go off the board. I like the values of Pat Freiermuth, Luke Musgrave, and Ben Sinnott. Freiermuth could be in a good season as the second option in the passing game for the Steelers. Musgrave has upside in an offense that is still looking for their top options in the passing game. Sinnott could be a great player. That may take some time, but he should reach top 10 TE status during his career.
Favorite Teams
Team One is probably the team to beat in 2024. The QB2 situation with Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson may be an Achilles heel if they don’t play all season long. The combination of Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs is a great trio during the 2024 season. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are two elite running backs that should finish in the top five. They also got a solid tight end in Mark Andrews for TE premium.
Team 12 is also a team I like, as it would be something you consider if you tank the quarterback room. That team ending up with Baker Mayfield and Aaron Rodgers is decent enough to compete in the 2024 season. They have six potential starting receivers that could all finish in the top 24 in fantasy that they could use in trades to upgrade their team. The JaMarr Chase, Amon St. Brown, and Jayden Waddle combo is an elite grouping. They took Trey McBride, a solid spot in TE premium leagues. While they only had one running back through ten rounds, they may make the most of it. Brian Robinson and Zack Moss are solid borderline RB2s in the 11th and 12th rounds. They even got Kimani Vidal for upside in round 14.
I like Team Nine as a long-term option for the dynasty. They have two bookend quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Jordan Love. Drake London, Brandin Aiyuk, and Tank Dell are a nice young trio to have to move forward in the dynasty. They even took plays at Keon Coleman, Xavier Leggette, and Troy Franklin, who are in a good position to be successful in fantasy. Cole Kmet is a solid, underrated tight end in this new-look Bears offense. While the running back room only has three and a half running backs, that is okay. I don’t usually go high on running back in dynasty due to their short life span.
