Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Details of the Script

• TNF – 8:15 p.m. @ Allegiant Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -3.0) & Over/Under 33.5

Identifying the Game Script

This will be the second game between the Chargers and Raiders in 2023. Last time, the Chargers won 24-17 at home over the Raiders. In the previous five games, the home team has won their matchup. The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Broncos, as the team lost their franchise quarterback. The Raiders are coming off the lowest-scoring game since 2007 in a 3-0 loss to the Vikings.

The Chargers will likely lean on the run game as the team switches to their backup quarterback. The Raiders’ weakness on defense has been their run game. The Raiders must find ways to get the ball to their star receivers, as the Chargers’ secondary has been terrible most of the season. This game doesn’t scream fun upside for the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

Quarterbacks

Easton Stick was a former fifth-round pick in the 2019 NFL draft. The former North Dakota St. quarterback received his first extended playing time for the first time in his career. Before last week, he had only thrown one pass in his career. Stick wasn’t the best quarterback prospect to come out of college. He has some good traits but needs to work on many others. The Raiders rank inside the top ten as a unit against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed five touchdown passes over the last five weeks. They faced two elite quarterbacks in that span and combined for four touchdowns. Stick will be without Keenan Allen, hurting his value in this game. I’m not expecting much from him, as the team will use the run game more. Stick is a QB3 in week 15. He is not someone worth playing in the first round of your playoffs.

Aidan O’Connell looked like he was building on something before their week 13 bye. O’Connell came into a tough matchup against the Vikings and failed to produce even in Superflex leagues. It seems like O’Connell has not been getting the chance to make plays downfield the last few weeks with shorter passes. He has been accurate the previous two weeks, but we saw lower passing yards this week. The Chargers are in the bottom ten on defense against fantasy quarterbacks. They have kept opposing quarterbacks under 230 passing yards in the last three weeks. In the previous five weeks, the Chargers have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for at least two passing touchdowns.

The last time they played, this was O’Connell’s first career start as the Chargers went to sack town on him. O’Connell was sacked seven times and turned the ball over three times. O’Connell may need to throw the ball more since his backfield may have lost Josh Jacobs. It’s hard to expect a lot of O’Connell since he hasn’t shown much this season. He has been under 16 fantasy points in each start and has yet to throw for two passing touchdowns. This could be the matchup he needs to get going. He would likely be a QB3 in week 15. I would be concerned about starting him in Superflex leagues for your playoffs.

Running Backs

For the Chargers backfield, we finally saw Austin Ekeler get back to a great fantasy performance. Ekeler was coming off three straight games under ten fantasy, but in Week 14, he finished with 18 points. Ekeler has a fantastic matchup with the Broncos, so he was expected to produce here. The Raiders have a bottom-ten run defense against running backs. In the recent five games, they have only allowed two rushing touchdowns. They have given up three running backs over 60 rushing yards in those five games.

If the team has to go with Stick, then Ekeler should be more involved, especially on dump-off passes. Easton targeted Ekeler five times in the time he was on the field. The only concern is whether the offense can move the ball down the field without Justin Herbert. That would limit Ekeler’s upside for touchdowns. Ekeler should see most of the touches, with a few more on the ground due to the quarterback situation. Ekeler is a low end RB1. There is a rumor that Joshua Kelley would get more work, but Isaiah Spiller had six carries last week. Perhaps the Chargers want to see if they have anything in Spiller. They both would be RB5s in week 15.

The Raiders backfield could be without Josh Jacobs in week 15. The star running back suffered a knee injury and has not practiced this week. The Chargers have been a decent run defense in the last four weeks. They haven’t allowed a running back over 65 yards in that span. They also have allowed just one running back to score a touchdown. Jacobs had a great game last time he faced the Chargers with over 20 points. I will assume that Jacobs misses week 15, but if he doesn’t, he is more of a high-end RB2. Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah would likely split the backfield if Jacobs misses.

White is a former fourth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He has never seen extended playing time in the regular season with Jacobs there. He would take over the ground game portion of the backfield. White is a physical runner who was highly rated coming out of college. He would likely be a borderline RB3 since I don’t expect him to be overly successful, especially since he won’t see most of the passing work. Abdullah would probably handle all the passing-down work in the offense. He would rank outside the top 60 running backs in week 15 since it’s hard to trust he will see enough opportunities.

Pass Catchers

For the Chargers receivers, Keenan Allen won’t play in week 15. Joshua Palmer is returning in this matchup. He played well before his injury, but the downgrade at quarterback is an issue. Palmer should lead the team in targets as the top receiver. Palmer would be a high-end WR4 in week 15. Quentin Johnston is coming off his best fantasy outing with ten fantasy points. Johnston has 143 yards over the last two weeks. Johnston has a prime opportunity to be the lead guy on the offense. He could easily see six-plus targets in this game. Based on his production this season, it’s hard to trust him in this matchup. He is a high-end WR5 in week 15.

For the tight ends, the Raiders could be a decent matchup for the position this week. They have allowed four tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. Unfortunately, none have scored in that span, but the yardage is there. Gerald Everett is coming off three decent games and could be relied on in the middle of the field for Stick. Everett sees five targets per game despite the team using multiple tight ends. Everett should be able to put up decent fantasy numbers and finish as a mid-range TE2.

For the Raiders receivers, the Chargers allow the third most fantasy points per game to the position. The Chargers have been a bit better in recent weeks than early on in the season. They have given up four receivers over 50 yards in the last five weeks and five receiving touchdowns. It’s not as easy of a matchup compared to their per-game ranking. Davante Adams scored 11 fantasy points last time he faced the Chargers. Jakobi Meyers had a poor outing, as we thought he could only be good with Jimmy G at quarterback. Adams has at least 50 yards in four straight games and continues to see a high target share. I’d expect Adams to see eight-plus targets in this game and finish as a mid-range WR2 in week 14.

Jakobi Meyers has at least five targets in each of the last three games. He has one game over ten fantasy points in the previous four weeks. It would be nice to give Meyers a bump in the favorable matchup, but his quarterback situation is risky in his game. Meyers is a borderline WR3 in this matchup. The Chargers have been a solid matchup for the tight ends or opposing teams. They have allowed an opposing tight end at least 30 yards in five straight games. Michael Mayer is coming off two targets in week 13. He has not been a reliable option in fantasy, even for the tight-end position. Mayer would likely be just outside the top 24 tight ends.

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