Welcome in Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds have helped you throughout the NFL offseason, preparing for the 2023 fantasy football season. Now that your teams are set, it is time to get to work and win some dynasty championships. Every week, our writers will help you with the tough decisions and give you insight that you can’t get anywhere else. I will share my quarterback start/sits weekly to help you set your starting lineups.
Below is a list of all of our weekly positional articles. Please follow us, tweet us, and DM us. We can’t wait to talk football with all of you Nerds!
- Changing the Call (QB): Mike Hicks
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook
- 12 Formation (TE): Steven Pintado
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
LAST WEEK
In Week 11, I was split down the middle in my predictions, going 2-0 in my starts and 0-2 in my sits of the week.
Brock Purdy outperformed his ECR of QB11 but even outperformed my expectations against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Purdy had 333 yards and 3 touchdowns, finishing as QB2 in Week 11. He even had the first-ever perfect QB rating performance in 49ers history. Jordan Love didn’t finish as a top-10 QB but did outperform his ECR of QB18. He ended up a QB11 on the week and had 322 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, I swung and missed with my sits of the week. Josh Allen in Week 11 QB11 in the n was the QB5 in Week 11, outperforming his ECR of QB6. In Week 11, the QB15 in Fantasypros ECR was Joshua Dobbs. I thought he would struggle to get close to that, and I was wrong. Dobbs finished exactly at his ECR of QB15 with 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 1 rushing touchdown.
WEEK 12 STARTS
Gardner Minshew, Colts, QB18
Garner Minshew has not had a great season so far. Minshew only has three top 20 weekly performances, but one was a top 3 performance in Week 7. So far this season, he has 1,721, 8TD, and 6 INT.His numbers have decreased since Jonothan Taylor has been back in the lineup. Which Garnder Minshew will we get in Week 12?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been good against the run but not so great against the pass. The Buccaneers are 30th overall, allowing 19.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. As of recently, they have even been worse. In the past five games, their defense has given up 23.5 FPPG, 38.1% higher than the NFL average of 17 FPPG. They blitz the quarterback’s second most in the league at a rate of 38.3%.
Minshew has not been great since Taylor’s return. However, his last two opponents are both in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. The Colts will need to pass the ball more in Week 12 if they want to get the win. Minshew will outscore his ECR of QB18 and should be a fringe QB1 and a must-start in Superflex leagues.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys, QB5
The Cowboys, Dak Prescott, is currently QB6 in 2023. Last week against Carolina, Prescott was QB17. However, he was a top-5 QB in his previous four games, including being the overall QB1 in two of those. Prescott is tied for third in the NFL with 19 passing TDs. And in his last four games, he has 12 touchdowns. Can he continue his hot streak in Week 12?
The Washington Commanders have struggled against quarterbacks all of the 2023 season. They are last in the NFL, giving up 21.3 FPPG to QBs. They have given up 2,844 passing yards and a league-leading 24 passing touchdowns this season. The Commanders are giving up 28.1 points over average. The Commanders in Week 11 gave up 22.5 fantasy points to the Giants Tommy DeVito.
Dak Prescott is looking to continue his hot streak and has the best matchup, according to P.O.A., in Week 12. At an ECR of QB5, he is a must-start in all formats. But he has the upside to be the overall QB1 in Week 12
WEEK 12 SITS
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins, QB11
Tua Tagovailoa has had many successful weeks in 2023, having 6 top 12 performances, and is QB11 overall this season. The Dolphins have a high-powered offense, which is led by Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa is second in the NFL with an average of 293.4 YPG. Having weapons in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and others gives him plenty of targets to throw to in the Dolphins passing attack.
The Jets have had a very difficult 2023 season, but the defense is their strength. They are 11th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, giving up 15.2 FPPG. The Jets are tied for 8th in the NFL with 8 INTs. In the last three games, the Jets have given up an average of 13.3 FFPG, which is 20.1% less than the league average in the past weeks.
The Dolphins will likely be ahead early in a game against starting QB Tim Boyle. Tagovailoa will have a good game, but he will need a big game for his Dolphins to win. The Dolphins will look to get ahead and run the ball often against the Jets. Still, start Tagovailoa if you need to, but lower your expectations in Week 11.
Matthew Stafford, Rams, QB18
Matthew Stafford has had 5 top-20 performances in 9 games this season. In the last two games played, he has finished QB26 and QB24 respectively. Stafford is 11th in the NFL, throwing for 251.1 YPG. His highest performance this season is QB14, which came in Week 5. After a Week 11 injury, it does not look like Stafford will have Cooper Kupp at his disposal in Week 12.
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled as a team overall. The Cardinals defense was 27th, and the NFL in points allowed to QBs, giving up 18.6 FPPG. In the last three weeks, the Cardinals have given up 18.5 FPPG, 11.6% more than the league average. Fortunately, the Cardinals defense is eighth in the NFL, with a total of 32 sacks on the season. The Cardinals will try to get pressure on Stafford, who is playing with a weak offensive line.
In his last game against the Cardinals, Stafford had 13.2 points. Can Stafford perform up to his ECR of QB18 in Week 12? Both teams will struggle to move the ball on offense, and this should be a low-scoring game. Avoid playing Stafford in all formats if you can.
