Everyone loves a value and there is no better position than quarterback to look for that edge. The Nerds team delivers four quarterbacks with favorable ADP’s.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB15
The injury discount is very real for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Long gone are the days of “Tank For Tua,” as the Alabama prospect was one of the more hyped college prospects before his devastating hip injury during his last year of college. Since he was drafted, we have seen Miami trade a boatload of assets for Tyreek Hill, draft his buddy Jaylen Waddle, and hire one of the brightest young offensive minds in the league. So why is everyone so out on Tua for 2023 and beyond?
We must start with the elephant in the room, which is Tua’s injury history. As mentioned, Tua suffered a devastating hip injury against Mississippi State. The injury was so severe he was rushed to the hospital in an ambulance. Couple that with missed games in 2021 due to a rib injury and multiple concussions in 2022, and Tua is now “injury-prone.”
However, we must look at the positives for the future of the Dolphin. Miami has the best-receiving core in the NFL without a third wide receiver of note on the roster. When you combine two of the fastest receivers with a quarterback ranked as the most accurate deep ball passer, the fantasy points will flood in for 2023 and beyond.
Dan Toomey @DanT_NFL
Derek Carr, QB25
Poor Derek Carr is getting a bad rap in dynasty leagues right now. His ADP in dynasty is the eighth round as the 25th quarterback off the board. It wasn’t long ago that Carr flirted with QB1 seasons in 2020 and 2021 with limited weapons around him. 2022 gave everyone a bad taste for Carr as he finished QB17 on the season with his fewest yardage since 2017. I’m not saying Carr is an elite talent, but he is a solid quarterback that should continue to throw for 4000 yards and 25 touchdowns in a season.
He is tied to the Saints for the next three seasons, at least due to signing a five-year contract this offseason. So, there is some longevity for your dynasty team with Carr as a QB2. While he no longer has Devante Adams, he has a well-balanced offense with the Saints. Chris Olave is a match made in heaven for Derek Carr. Olave was fourth in deep ball target and Carr was fifth in deep ball attempts. Olave wins with speed rather than Adams, who wins with his bigger frame. Carr will also have a solid core of Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and Alvin Kamara to throw the ball to. Let’s not forget he won’t have an arrogant coach in Josh McDaniels, who seems to kill offensive talent when he is the head coach.
Steven Pintado @CoachStevenP
Jared Goff, QB18
Jared Goff is the most undervalued quarterback in all of dynasty football. The former #1 overall pick has enjoyed a successful career that has seen him make three Pro Bowls appearances and take a team to the Super Bowl. He has put up great numbers during his career despite the perception that he is a replacement-level quarterback. You can see from his numbers below that span two teams, which is far from the case.
| Year | Age | Tm | Pos | No. | G | GS | QBrec | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | 1D | Lng | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | QBR | Sk | Yds | Sk% | NY/A | ANY/A | 4QC | GWD | AV | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | LAR | QB | 16 | 7 | 7 | 0-7-0 | 112 | 205 | 54.6 | 1089 | 5 | 2.4 | 7 | 3.4 | 48 | 66 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 9.7 | 155.6 | 63.6 | 18.3 | 26 | 222 | 11.3 | 3.75 | 2.82 | -2 | |||
| 2017* | 23 | LAR | QB | 16 | 15 | 15 | 11-4-0 | 296 | 477 | 62.1 | 3804 | 28 | 5.9 | 7 | 1.5 | 177 | 94 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 253.6 | 100.5 | 55.7 | 25 | 172 | 5.0 | 7.24 | 7.72 | 1 | 1 | 15 | PB |
| 2018* | 24 | LAR | QB | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13-3-0 | 364 | 561 | 64.9 | 4688 | 32 | 5.7 | 12 | 2.1 | 233 | 70 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 293.0 | 101.1 | 63.6 | 33 | 223 | 5.6 | 7.52 | 7.69 | 4 | 4 | 18 | PB |
| 2019 | 25 | LAR | QB | 16 | 16 | 16 | 9-7-0 | 394 | 626 | 62.9 | 4638 | 22 | 3.5 | 16 | 2.6 | 220 | 66 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 289.9 | 86.5 | 50.6 | 22 | 170 | 3.4 | 6.90 | 6.46 | 1 | 2 | 12 | |
| 2020 | 26 | LAR | QB | 16 | 15 | 15 | 9-6-0 | 370 | 552 | 67.0 | 3952 | 20 | 3.6 | 13 | 2.4 | 194 | 56 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 263.5 | 90.0 | 50.8 | 23 | 161 | 4.0 | 6.59 | 6.27 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| 2021 | 27 | DET | QB | 16 | 14 | 14 | 3-10-1 | 332 | 494 | 67.2 | 3245 | 19 | 3.8 | 8 | 1.6 | 162 | 63 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 231.8 | 91.5 | 39.5 | 35 | 280 | 6.6 | 5.60 | 5.64 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 2022* | 28 | DET | QB | 16 | 17 | 17 | 9-8-0 | 382 | 587 | 65.1 | 4438 | 29 | 4.9 | 7 | 1.2 | 227 | 81 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 261.1 | 99.3 | 61.1 | 23 | 156 | 3.8 | 7.02 | 7.45 | 3 | 3 | 16 | AP CPoY-6, PB |
| Career | 100 | 100 | 54-45-1 | 2250 | 3502 | 64.2 | 25854 | 155 | 4.4 | 70 | 2.0 | 1261 | 94 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 258.5 | 92.8 | 187 | 1384 | 5.1 | 6.63 | 6.62 | 11 | 13 | 79 | ||||||
| 5 yrs | LAR | 69 | 69 | 42-27-0 | 1536 | 2421 | 63.4 | 18171 | 107 | 4.4 | 55 | 2.3 | 872 | 94 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 263.3 | 91.5 | 129 | 948 | 5.1 | 6.75 | 6.62 | 6 | 8 | 53 | |||||
| 2 yrs | DET | 31 | 31 | 12-18-1 | 714 | 1081 | 66.0 | 7683 | 48 | 4.4 | 15 | 1.4 | 389 | 81 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 247.8 | 95.8 | 58 | 436 | 5.1 | 6.36 | 6.61 | 5 | 5 | 26 | |||||
One of the many things Goff has going in his favor is the direction of the Detroit Lions offense. The team has added several quality pass catchers this offseason. From David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to Sam LaPorta and Marvin Jones, Goff will have several new toys to target in the passing game. He will never be confused with Justin Fields or Josh Allen, but all Goff has to do is act as a point guard and distribute the ball to his playmakers.
We’re going to see a lot of this from Goff and Gibbs season 👀
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) June 8, 2023
🎥: @Lions pic.twitter.com/4HdzIhpbQC
Despite finishing last season as the QB8 overall, Jared Goff is currently going as the QB20 in the most recent Nerds ADP. That is an absolute bargain. At only 28 years old, Goff has plenty of years left in the tank and is currently behind the wheel of a high-powered offense with weapons to burn. Grab this absolute value before it’s too late.
Dr. Matthew Mitchell @ReflipewtheNuz
Kyler Murray, QB14
Kyler Murray is currently getting drafted as the QB14 in dynasty startups, according to ADP. He sits behind two rookie quarterbacks as well as nine wide receivers. Just ten months ago, Kyler was a top-5 startup pick, and not much has changed outside of his injury.
Since suiting up for the Cardinals in 2019 as the first overall pick, Murray has been nothing but a fantasy football cheat code– posting three top-6 fantasy seasons by points per game. Kyler, who turns just 26 before the 2023 season, should move past his injury and be back to the Kyler we know by the back half of the season.
But What If The Cardinals Tank?
This has been a common reason to fade Kyler Murray. What if the Cardinals tank for projected number-one pick Caleb Williams next season? My answer to that is simple. Who cares? Now I know that’s not the most sophisticated answer, but that’s my reaction every time.
My serious response is that it may be better for Murray, who signed a massive extension last off-season, to get out of the mess of Arizona and into a better situation. The bottom line is Kyler Murray is an elite quarterback and will be a starting quarterback in the NFL regardless of the Cardinals record in 2023.
What Should I Pay?
Kyler is still a top-12 asset in Superflex dynasty leagues, and as soon as he’s back on the field, the market will correct.
Some trade ideas would be:
1-for-1s:
Bryce Young for Kyler Murray
Dak Prescott for Kyler
Anthony Richardson for Kyler Murray (you can probably get a nice plus here, but I prefer Kyler straight up)
Other players ahead of Murray in ADP that I would trade for him.
- Chris Olave
- Tyreek Hill
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Garrett Wilson
- Christian McCaffrey
If you can turn any of those players into Kyler Murray, you’re set to build a dynasty. Remember, we always play the long game, and the market on Kyler is very short-sighted. Great dynasty gamers feast on these opportunities and ride them to championships!
