2024 Rookie Profile: Bo Nix – Quarterback

In his sophomore campaign, Nix racked up over 2,400 yards and led Auburn to a Citrus Bowl berth in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. A second consecutive SEC Academic Honor Roll appearance propelled him to graduate early as a junior. On the field, his junior season was unfortunately cut short due to injury, but not before he posted an impressive touchdown to interception ratio of 11:3.

In 2022, as a graduate senior, Nix transferred to the University of Oregon and once again assumed an immediate starting role. His transition to the Pac-10 produced immediate dividends, as he threw for nearly 3,600 yards and secured a Holiday Bowl victory for the Ducks.

Finally, in 2023, as a fifth-year senior, Nix launched himself into the top pantheon of college quarterbacks with a truly remarkable season. His unbelievable 77.4% completion percentage set an all-time NCAA record. He was a Heisman finalist and won MVP honors in the Fiesta Bowl after an absolute 45-6 dismantling of 23rd-ranked Liberty.

What is There to Like?

Accuracy

In his fifth year as a collegiate starter, Nix posted an absurd 45:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is remarkably efficient in managing an offense and is not afraid to check it down if need be. His film shows an excellent command of the scheme, translating to consistently on-time throws. And, though not asked to do so frequently, Nix also has the arm strength to mix in a well-placed deep ball.

Even more impressive, Nix does not require a clean pocket to uphold his noted accuracy. Though his mechanics are typically sound, he continues to show excellent ball placement even when flushed and forced to improvise.

Mobility

Though Nix opted not to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he has wheels that were very evident in the film. Oregon’s game plans were often crafted to capitalize on this talent. Though slight for a quarterback (6’2”, 214 pounds), Nix can burrow into a pile or beat defenders to the edge, giving his offense a dynamic quality that keeps defenders on their heels.

Look for NFL coaches to tap into this ability, utilizing deceptive motion. A modern scheme replete with designed runs, play-action trickery, and exotic RPO plays will suit Nix’s skill set quite well. If he lands in an offense that allows him to showcase these traits, it will be a boon to his fantasy stock.

What Should Concern You?

Statistical Inflation

As mentioned above, Nix posted some eye-popping numbers in his final year at Oregon. A record-setting 77.4% completion percentage paired with a 45:3 interception-to-touchdown ratio might have you thinking this guy is the second coming of Drew Brees. But not so fast.

Upon further review, you’ll find that the stats have been buoyed by an Oregon scheme that utilized motion to free up speedy receivers on short-to-intermediate routes. Dane Brugler of The Athletic reports that Nix’s average depth of target in 2023 was just 6.8 yards, which ranked third lowest in the FBS.

The lack of downfield throws is not necessarily a criticism of Nix. He simply was not asked to take many deep shots in the Oregon offense. However, it is something to remain vigilant about in your evaluation.

Comparison – Baker Mayfield

The book on Baker Mayfield leading into the 2018 Draft was that he was an undersized quarterback (6’1”, 215 pounds) with some mobility and tremendous accuracy and timing that allowed receivers to get downfield post-reception. In his senior season at Oklahoma, Mayfield posted 43 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. His completion percentage was an impressive 70.5%. Sound familiar?

Mayfield is comparable to Nix in both size and attributes. Both excel at ball placement, particularly on short throws that keep the chains moving. During his six years in the NFL, Mayfield has shown that environment is critical to success. When placed in a favorable situation (such as his 2023 debut in Tampa Bay), he has thrived. However, it wasn’t long ago that he fought for starting reps with the lowly Panthers during a forgettable stint in Carolina.

I expect the same trajectory for Nix. The landing spot will be critical for this prospect. He may deliver immediate dividends if he ends up with the right coaching and supporting cast.

Conclusion

Nix has logged significant minutes over his half-decade in collegiate football. He will bring a wealth of experience and an intelligent approach to any quarterback room. Nix can make all the NFL throws but thrives in an up-tempo, high-efficiency scheme. Though accuracy is a hallmark of his game, he can also beat you with his legs, making him a sneaky dual threat.

I suspect Nix would warrant consideration for the top ten in the NFL Draft in any other class. Diluted by some elite company in 2024, I still suspect we will see Nix find his NFL home sometime in the mid to late first round. I feel he has enough talent to make his mark with any franchise, but pay close attention to his landing spot, as the right fit may elevate his play to another level.

I rank Nix fifth among quarterbacks in this class. He rubs elbows with JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr in a star-studded second tier. In Superflex leagues, Nix will probably cost you a late first, and that’s capital well spent in my book.

Bo knows ball. And, as a high-efficiency stat monster, dynasty owners should know Bo. Let your league mates battle it out for the press darlings at the top of this class. Instead, go ‘big brain’ like the Nerd you are and sneak Nix out right from under their noses. 

In Closing…

I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on Bo Nix. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. Also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your offseason. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!