Hey Nerds! The NFL season is almost upon us. Thankfully, @dynastydadmike is back to cover the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Dynasty Nerds 2024 Fantasy Forecast series. Tampa Bay finished their 2023 campaign with a loss to the Detroit Lions in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have all the key offensive starters returning and will look to repeat as the NFC South Champions. One key departure of note for Tampa Bay is Dave Canales, who served as the offensive coordinator before taking the Head Coach position for the division-rival Carolina Panthers.
Quarterbacks
Let’s start at the quarterback position where Baker Mayfield had a fantasy reemergence. He finished as QB10 overall on the season after signing a one-year prove-it deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mayfield’s 2023 season numbers: 4,044 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Baker also snuck in 163 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. The passing yards and touchdown numbers marked a career-high for Mayfield—netting Mayfield a 3-year, $100 million extension.
Baker Mayfield will have all of his main receiving weapons returning and should continue to flirt with QB1 numbers even under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen and Mayfield are familiar with each other, given their time together with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022 when Coen was the Rams’ offensive coordinator. It goes without saying that Baker was a crucial voice in the decision to hire Coen for the position.
The backup to own for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is Kyle Trask. Also on the roster is John Wolford, who is familiar with Liam Coen’s system. However, neither quarterback will be touching the field barring an injury to Mayfield. I suspect Tampa Bay will only roster 2 quarterbacks for their final 53-man roster—Mayfield and Trask.
Running Backs
The 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ rushing attack finished dead last in the league with 1,509 yards on the ground. The offense was led by Rachaad White, who nearly topped the 1,000-yard rushing mark (990). White led the team with 272 carries and 6 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. While White wasn’t the most efficient back in the run game, he was in the passing game. White caught 64 passes for 549 receiving yards and 3 scores—finishing 4th in scoring for running backs. While I think White will continue to produce in this offense, I don’t foresee top-12 running back numbers for the season and believe he will hover more around the RB12-16 range.
The reasoning behind my prediction is based on how Tampa Bay attacked the draft using their fourth-round selection to take former Oregon pass-catching running back Bucky Irving. During his time at Oregon, Irving caught 95 passes—which should eat into White’s receiving load. Bucky Irving is going in most rookie drafts in the late second or early part of the third round, which I believe is an accurate value for him. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also re-signed their 2023 backup, Chase Edmonds, and still have UDFA Sean Tucker on the roster as well.
Wide Receivers
The 1,000-yard duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be returning in 2024 as Mike Evans re-signed in the offseason on a 2-year, $52-million contract. Evans finished his 2023 season as the seventh overall wide receiver with 1,255 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. His 1,000 receiving yards mark the 10th-straight year in his career to reach the “1K,”—an NFL record. Evans appears in line for another 1000-yard season, given the fact that his WR7 overall finish with Baker Mayfield was his second-highest finish outside of 2016 when he finished as a top-2 WR.
However, I am much more excited about the possibility of his counterpart, Chris Godwin. Godwin finished his 2023 season with 83 receptions, 1,024 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns, producing a WR29 finish. What has me excited is that Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen has already gone on record stating he will be putting Godwin back into the slot role where Godwin has thrived for most of his career.
“You’ve got a guy [in Mike Evans] that’s 6’4″ and change, 220 [lbs.], and can move like he does,” Coen said after being introduced to the local media. “Then you’ve got a guy like Chris that I think can be really dynamic on the inside. That’s where I envision him playing, more on the inside, playing that ‘F’ position that ultimately Cooper [Kupp] played. A lot of things do run through that. So I’m excited about him.”
I expect Godwin to flirt around WR12 overall.
The third wide receiver position is up for grabs between second-year wideout Trey Palmer, free agent signee Sterling Shepard, and rookie Jalen McMillan, who was Tampa Bay’s third-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Trey Palmer flashed in his rookie season with 39 receptions, 385 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns.
Sterling Shepard comes joins the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after spending his entire 8-year career with the New York Giants. Shepard’s best season was back in 2018 when he finished as WR28 overall with 66 receptions, 872 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Rookie receiver Jalen McMillan was part of the Washington Huskies wide receiver trio. McMillan is a long strider with good size and speed. The WR battle will come down to Palmer or McMillan as I don’t see Shepard being able to stay healthy. (He has failed to play a full season since 2018.) The McMillan v. Palmer camp battle will be one to watch, but I don’t suspect either to be more than a possible weekly fill-in on your dynasty roster.
Tight Ends
When it comes to the tight end to own for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s Cade Otton. He finished the 2023 season 4th in team receptions with 47. His final stat line was 47 receptions for 455 yards and 4 touchdowns on 67 targets, which were all career highs. Cade Otton is regarded more as a backup fantasy TE that could flirt with TE1 numbers occasionally, but nothing that would remain consistent.
The rest of the tight end room includes Ko Kieft, Payne Durham, David Wells, Tanner Taula, and seventh-round rookie selection, Devin Culp. None of those names strike me as exciting—they should all be left on the waiver wire.
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