Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series for the Pittsburgh Steelers! We at Dynasty Nerds will be talking about every NFL team and breaking down the players on that team. We will talk about their value for the upcoming season and give dynasty advice on what you should do with that player if so.
The offense in Pittsburgh has undergone a massive change, shipping out Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Diontae Johnson. The front office brought in many new faces, and there is new hope that this stagnant offense can get over the hump to be very productive in 2024.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson
What a couple of years it has been. Russell Wilson’s two seasons in Denver were nothing short of a disaster. Denver sat him for the final two games of the 2023 season for “financial flexibility.” From that point, the writing was on the wall for Wilson’s exit from Denver. He signed a $1.2 million one-year deal with the Steelers. He opens up camp as the team’s starting quarterback.
In five seasons as either the OC or Head Coach, an Arthur Smith offense has never finished higher than 19th in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards. In two seasons, his teams were eighth in passing touchdowns. By contrast, Smith’s offense has been in the top 10 in rushing yards for 4 of the 5 seasons and in the top 10 for rushing touchdowns 3 times. His offenses skew heavily toward rushing. In conjunction with trading away Diontae Johnson, I look for the overall passing attempts to take a step back. I could see upwards of 70 percent of the passes going to the running backs and George Pickens.
I am interested in Wilson only in Superflex leagues. Based on recent trades in the DynastyGM, his current value is around a second-round pick, which is the perfect investment for a contender trying to solidify depth. However, there is a decent chance he ends up splitting time with the next guy being discussed.
Justin Fields
Just like Wilson, Fields finds himself in a new place. In the final year of his rookie deal, the Steelers declined his fifth-year option. Fields is on a one-year prove-it deal with the Steelers. This isn’t going to be the season where he proves his passing prowess. If Fields does play, he will fall back on (or the OC will have him fall back on) what he is best at: rushing. Justin Fields has averaged 6.2 yards per rush attempt during his three seasons. His rushing ability is almost the sole reason he has been fantasy relevant.
If I have Fields in Superflex, I’m holding him. If not, I’m walking past and looking at other options. I don’t think this is the situation for him to turn his career around.
Running Backs
Najee Harris
Najee Harris also had his fifth-year option declined. He is in the final year of his rookie deal and looking to cash in next offseason with an impressive 2024 season—enter Arthur Smith. This guy loves to run the ball. Even casual NFL fans know this. In the five seasons Smith was either an offensive coordinator or head coach, his team ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 10th in rushing attempts across the 4 seasons.
Harris averages just under four yards per carry for his NFL career and has been a poster child for health by not missing a single game in the three seasons since being drafted 24th overall. Additionally, he has had at least 1,000 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns every season.
However, Harris’ value has been extremely depressed by the emergence of fellow running back Jaylen Warren in the passing game. It appears that Harris is being relegated to rushing for the upcoming season, but given his value, he is a player I am targeting. Harris looks to be going for around a late first-round pick, plus a later pick in recent trades in the DynastyGM. There are also some trades where it looks like an owner is trying to get whatever they can for Harris. If this is an option with a scared owner in your league, take advantage and acquire Harris who is a fringe RB2 candidate this season.
Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren is an extremely interesting player. He went undrafted and joined the Steelers in 2022. From the start, he ate into Harris’ receiving work. Last season, Warren looked to be the better running back, averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt for 784 yards and catching 61 passes for 310 yards. However, he only had four total touchdowns. He was RB22—one spot higher than Harris. If Warren got two more touchdowns, he would have finished as RB17. The production is there; he just needs more touchdowns.
Warren is valued around a future second. With this kind of production, if I am looking to contend this season, I’m trying to acquire his services. He is the kind of player that wins championships.
Wide Receivers
The Carolina Panthers traded for perpetual target hog Diontae Johnson. For a player who averaged over eight targets and five catches per game over his five seasons, he leaves a large piece of the offensive pie on the table for the remaining wide receivers.
George Pickens
George Pickens enters the season as the de facto WR1 in this offense. He has elite contested catch abilities and led the league in 2023 in Yards Per Reception at 18.1. Additionally, in 2022, he was 8th in the league in YPR at 15.4. Pickens doesn’t need many receptions to turn in a big game, which is great news for fantasy owners. With the departure of Johnson, his targets will go up, ever-improving his fantasy production numbers. In 2023, he finished in PPR leagues as WR30 overall with 208.8 total points. However, he only had five touchdowns for the entire season, which should improve in 2024.
Pickens is currently valued at WR25 in dynasty leagues, and I personally feel this is appropriate until we see what this offense can do. I would happily give a first and second to get him on my team.
Roman Wilson
Wilson was a third-round pick in the NFL Draft this past year. He played 4 seasons at Michigan and caught 48 balls for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns in their 2023 National Championship season. Wilson led the team in all receiving categories except for the longest reception. He has speed and is elusive, but he landed on a pretty sparse depth chart. Wilson slots in as the WR2 on the team already. However, I would temper expectations. Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator, after all.
In the DynastyGM, Roman Wilson is currently valued at WR53, which feels appropriate. The only wide receiver around him in value that I have ranked higher than him is Jahan Dotson.
Wilson’s value is around two seconds or as a compensatory piece in a large wide receiver trade. I believe Wilson is a “hold” if I own him and a “wait and see” if I don’t own him.
Van Jefferson
Van Jefferson is just a guy on this team. He won’t factor into the offense enough to be fantasy-relevant.
Best of the Rest
Calvin Austin III is the only player of note. He opens his sophomore campaign as the WR4 on this squad. With Arthur Smith at the helm, he is merely a taxi squad/bottom-of-the-roster guy who could develop going forward. I wouldn’t prioritize him, given the circumstances.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth has had an interesting career thus far in the NFL. He was drafted in 2021 and was TE13, followed by TE7 in 2022, and TE29 in 2023. The 2023 season was injury-riddled, and he was only active in 12 games. Personally, I have been a fan of Freiermuth since he entered the league. I think he is the perfect tight end to own as your backup on a competing squad. He offers upside but is still cheaper than other players in his range.
His current value is TE17. I would rather manage Freiermuth than the following players who are ahead of him:
I think trading Luke Musgrave for Freiermuth plus is an interesting move. Musgrave is a hot commodity these days, and Freiermuth’s value has dipped a bit. If I could get a late second-round pick on top of Freiermuth, I would happily trade away Luke Musgrave.
Darnell Washington / Connor Heyward
Neither player is fantasy-relevant and are probably best left on the waiver wire.
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