Hey Nerds! The 2024 NFL season is almost upon us, and your boy is back to cover the Minnesota Vikings in the Dynasty Nerds 32 Teams in 32 Days series. Minnesota finished their 2023 campaign in third place in the NFC North with a 7-10 record. Much of their failures to have a successful season was due to injuries to key positions. Superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson could only play in ten games, and quarterback Kirk Cousins only played in eight games before ending his 2023 season with an Achilles injury.
Quarterbacks
Let’s start at the quarterback position, where Cousins is gone after six seasons. Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons in the Offseason.
Enter free agent signee Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy, who was selected 10th overall in the NFL Draft. Early reports have Darnold as the Week 1 starter, but I fully anticipate we will see McCarthy sometime during the season. While McCarthy is the hot dynasty asset and the future in Minnesota, Darnold’s dynasty value is clearly a buy. Darnold seems to be going for a late 2025 second-round pick in most formats, making him good value as a QB2/QB3.
As far as McCarthy is concerned, I would be targeting him in the mid-first round of your dynasty rookie drafts if you have not already drafted. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell runs a very quarterback-friendly offense that focuses heavily on his quarterback’s skills. In 2023, Minnesota finished first in passing yards and fourth in pass attempts.
Running Backs
The 2023 Vikings rushing attack finished 29th in the league with 1,553 yards. The running back room was led by Alexander Mattison, who had 700 rushing yards. Mattison is no longer with the team, as the team addressed the position in free agency by signing former Green Bay Packer Aaron Jones.
While Jones is no spring chicken in age, as he will turn 30 during the 2024 season, he provides the Vikings with an upgrade at the position. One concern with Jones is durability, as he has only played an entire season twice in his seven-year career.
Minnesota does have some depth in the position with third-year player Ty Chandler. Chandler saw his role increase in the Minnesota offense in 2023, eventually overtaking Mattison as the lead back. Chandler finished the year rushing for 461 yards on 102 carries. Of those 102 carries, 94 happened after Week 9 of the season.
In terms of fantasy production, I look for Jones to shoulder most of the fantasy points if he can stay healthy. I would feel comfortable with Jones as my RB3 and focus on trying to obtain Chandler as his handcuff.
Wide Receivers
The duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison highlight the Vikings wide receiver room. All talks of Jefferson leaving town were put to rest when he reset the wide receiver market by signing a four-year, $140 million contract extension, including $110 million guaranteed. Jefferson looks to easily assert himself back in the discussion of a top-three dynasty wide receiver. If any owner has any hesitation with Jefferson and is looking to shop for him, I would look to capitalize immediately!
Addison looks to improve on his stellar rookie campaign, where he caught 70 balls for 911 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. His 108 targets were second on the team, and given the pecking order, he would be playing second fiddle to Jefferson. Addison was second in fantasy points for rookies, behind only Puka Nacua. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell has had glowing reports about Addison, saying, “Addison has gotten stronger and more physical this year.” With the uncertainty at quarterback for the 2024 season, I tend to view Addison closer to a WR3 option for your dynasty team.
With the departure of KJ Obsorn, the third wide receiver option is wide open in Minnesota between Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield, or Jalen Nailor. At this point, I don’t feel any of these names are viable fantasy options, as they would be nothing more than the fifth option in the passing offense behind the running backs, Jefferson, Addison, and TJ Hockenson.
Tight Ends
Speaking of TJ Hockenson, he is clearly the tight end you want to own in Minnesota. Hock has finished as a top-five tight end in fantasy points in three of his five NFL seasons, including a TE2 and TE4 in his first two seasons with the Vikings after being traded by Detroit. Hockenson is a candidate to start the season on the PUP list as he is still recovering from a torn MCL and ACL late in the 2023 season. If you can, I would use this injury as a buying opportunity to obtain one of the elite tight ends in the NFL.
A name to keep an eye on while Hockenson recovers is free agent signee Robert Tonyan. He is probably available on your waiver wires and could be a nice fill-in piece until Hockenson returns.
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