Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds will be talking about every NFL team and breaking down the players to talk about their value for the upcoming season. We will also offer dynasty advice on what you should do with certain players in differing situations. Coach Steven (@CoachStevenP) continues our 32-part series with the Miami Dolphins.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa
The most significant question mark on the Miami Dolphins roster for fantasy is Tua Tagovailoa. Last season, Tagovailoa had career highs across the board, leading the league in passing yards with 4,600 yards. Tua Tagovailoa was QB5 during the first nine games of the season. He had big performances that were week-winning for fantasy. Tagovailoa was able to stay healthy for the entire season after significant question marks with his concussion history. Amazingly, he is tied to an offense with two elite receivers and a great run game to take the edge off.
Tagovailoa has incredible upside, but his floor is scary. For one, he lacks the rushing portion of a fantasy quarterback. While the reports are that he has shredded some weight, you cannot rely on a rushing floor. The Dolphins’ quarterback had one of the worst offensive lines in football (ranked 31st) last year. They’ve lost a few starters from the 2023 group, but Tagovailoa was one of the fastest quarterbacks to get the ball out of his hands in the league in 2023, so the offensive line may not matter in the end.
Two key issues for Tagovailoa in fantasy are his late-season performances and his showings against the AFC East. In 20 games between December and January, he had 24 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. It gets worse against this AFC East division, with his 18 career games amassing 19 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. These issues led to Tagovailoa being QB16 over the season’s final nine games.
Looking at 2024, Tagovailoa should continue to be a boom-or-bust quarterback. He is an excellent QB2 to have on your dynasty roster. The team is in their third year together and has added more talent to the offense. Tagovailoa could finish as a Top-12 quarterback (QB1) in fantasy, but he is around the borderline QB12 to QB13 in value heading into training camp.
The Miami Dolphins have a tough schedule down the stretch of the season with a couple of cold games and playoff teams they will have to face during our fantasy playoffs. Tagovailoa could be considered a buy-low for contending teams since his value is down. You have to be prepared to take the good and bad with Tagovailoa in 2024.
Backups
While Tua Tagovailoa was able to stay healthy last year, that doesn’t mean he can’t get injured in 2024. If that happens, Mike White will be next up for this offense. This is his second year with the team, so he is an experienced backup for this Dolphins’ team. White isn’t afraid to take shots downfield. In two seasons with the Jets, he had a couple of big fantasy games but also some horrible outings and multiple-interception games. Those New York offenses couldn’t hold a candle to Miami’s. White could potentially do enough to be a borderline QB2 in Superflex dynasty. If you are the Tagovailoa manager or need quarterback depth, adding White to your bench makes a ton of sense.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert – RB1A
Raheem Mostert looks to return as the lead running back for the Miami Dolphins. He exploded for an elite fantasy season, finishing second only to Christian McCaffrey. His 18 rushing touchdowns led the way to his elite season.
Mostert isn’t like most running backs who are 32-years old and starting. He has handled a lot of touches in his last two seasons in Miami. Mostert was 4th in breakaway runs of 20-plus yards and 10th in evaded tackles. Of course, the big thing was that he was fifth in red-zone touches, which led to his Top-12 running back season. He had a decent receiving game, but we saw that drop off in the second half of the season (likely due to his injury).
Raheem Mostert should be looked at as an RB2 in fantasy for 2024. De’Von Achane is bulking up this offseason, but Mostert is the guy. He should continue to see the starting touches in the offense, but he is likely to regress. For one, he is older and (thankfully) hasn’t dealt with too many injuries, but it is always a concern at his age. His 18 rushing touchdowns should regress, but I think he could still pull off 10 if this offense thrives.
Mostert is an excellent second or third running back on a dynasty team that you can swap in to the RB1 slot some weeks. The one genuine concern is whether the offensive line will hold up well, even with losing a few key pieces. As a contending team, you should look to buy low on Mostert, as everyone seems to be hot on Achane in July.
De’Von Achane – RB1B
De’Von Achane is a complete wild card for this Miami Dolphins backfield. Last year, he was an elite fantasy producer in a smaller sample size. He had a 4-game stretch of 500 yards and 8 touchdowns. He even has a solid role as a pass catcher with 197 yards and 3 more touchdowns. The one thing about Achane coming into the league was his small stature and whether he could handle the beating from NFL players. He ended up missing six games last season.
Interestingly, 83 percent of Achane’s rushing yards came in games where the Dolphins blew out or got blown out by 15 or more points. In his other 5 games, he would have 26 carries for 133 yards—still a solid yards per catch (YPC). The big question is what will his workload be like? Achane doesn’t need many touches to finish with 100 yards in a game. If games are closer, does the team turn to Mostert in most situations, which leaves Achane out? That is an answer we still don’t know. As I mentioned, Achane has bulked up this offseason which may help him get more of a stable role in the offense.
The team will continue to use Mostert as their RB1, and they also selected Jaylen Wright after trading a 2025 third-round pick during this year’s draft. Wright is seen as a mix of both backs. If this rotation gets crowded, it may lean toward fewer touches for Achane. I think Achane is a high-upside RB2 with a low floor. He could be an RB1 at the end of the season or just a boom-bust running back who finishes as a Top-30 player. Opportunity will be the critical factor for Achane since there is likely a regression to the efficiency of his eight rushing touchdowns last year. I think he is a great sell-high player to someone wanting to trade for his services.
Next Man Up
The Dolphins will start with Mostert and Achane, but don’t be surprised if Jaylen Wright gets involved. The fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft will likely find a role at some point. At the same time, it may take an injury before he can shine. Wright has a great blend of power and speed to his game. He was fifth in yards after contact and ran a great 40-yard time in the offseason. He is good for either type of manager in dynasty. I wouldn’t count on him for a vital depth piece at running back in 2024. Wright is more of a surprise package. If he gets his name called in 2024, he’s likely to shine in fantasy. He could play a role on special teams.
The Dolphins also have Jeff Wilson, who may be on the roster bubble for this team. Wilson has had his moments in fantasy, but lost his job in the starting rotation. He could have a chance to start if Mostert gets hurt and the team wants to rely on a veteran running back in the offense. Salvon Ahmed is on the team as well, but I don’t see the Dolphins holding five running backs on the team.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill – WR1
Hill stands on the top of the Dolphins receiver group. Hill has been nothing but dominant for Miami with back-to-back WR1 finishes. He has 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2 seasons. Usually, a 30-year-old receiver is hard to trust as a top wide receiver option in fantasy, but Hill has shown no slowing down in his game. He hit career highs in 2023 with receiving yards and tied his career high in targets. He was able to finish as the WR5 overall or better in nine games.
As long as an injury doesn’t occur, Hill should continue to be a WR1 in fantasy for 2024. He will lead this team with another 150 targets as he grows with his quarterback and head coach. Any contending team would be lucky to have him, and if his age gets you a discount, then you should jump all over that.
Jaylen Waddle – WR2
It’s not often that a team has two receivers you could consider WR1s in fantasy football. Waddle certainly could be, but he comes in as the WR2 for the Dolphins. Waddle has had a great career with 3 straight 1000-yard seasons. However, things were down in 2023. For one, he missed time due to an injury. Waddle’s upside, which he offered in 2022, was down, with only 2 top-12 finishes in fantasy. He had six “bust” weeks that killed fantasy owners with him in their lineup. We saw his average depth of target (ADOT) and his touchdowns (4) drop last year.
We know Waddle has shown himself to be elite, even with Hill on the field. He is in his prime years, and 2024 should not be any different. Waddle should be able to reach 115 targets and return to his yards per reception (YPR) of 15. Contending teams should continue to buy into Waddle to help improve their roster after his down season. He is still part of this Dolphins offense that knows how to be dynamic with their skilled players and use them to the best of their ability. Waddle should be able to finish as a high-end WR2. If something happened to Hill, Waddle should easily be a WR1.
Odell Beckham Jr. – WR3
Name value goes a long way with some NFL players, and Beckham’s name goes a long way for fantasy news. It’s hard to imagine Beckham having a consistent or relevant fantasy season in 2024. Hill and Waddle last year accounted for 50 percent of the targets in the Miami Dolphin’s offense. The third wide receiver in 2023 had 38 targets (Cedrick Wilson). Beckham hasn’t been the same player since he left New York. Even last year, he was a WR36 or better only 3 times—which was when Mark Andrews was out. OBJ had a nice 15.4 yards per catch, but it may not be enough to trust him in 2024. The only way Beckham reaches the starting lineup is if Hill or Waddle misses time due to injury. He is like a high-end handcuff as a wide receiver.
Best of the Rest
It’s tough to expect much from the rest of these receivers in the Miami Dolphins offense. Now that Beckham is taking over the third spot, there likely won’t be many targets left. The WR4 last season had 33 targets in the offense, which won’t help you in dynasty. Next men up in the depth chart are veterans Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft. They both have had moments in their career, but they were short-lived. It’s possible that one or both don’t make the opening-day roster for the Dolphins.
The two players looking to make this team are rookies Malik Washington and Tahj Washington. Tahj Washington is an older prospect who had steady production in college. He was an explosive punt and kick returner and is likely to make the team as a special teams player.
Malik Washington may have a better shot at being the WR4 for this team. He is a smaller player, sitting at 5’8″, who would likely get a chance to play in the slot for the Dolphins. He is quick and fast, which we know fits the Dolphins offense. Malik Washington may flash in 2024, but nothing to be a consistent option. Both Washington’s are great taxi squad players to hold on to. I like two players as a Dolphins fan: Erik Ezukanma and Braylon Sanders, but they may not make the team.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith – TE1
The Dolphins made a splash at tight end this offseason by signing Jonny Smith. The Dolphin’s lack of talent at the tight end position last year showed. Smith has had a rollercoaster type of career in the NFL after falling out with the Patriots two years ago. He had a career season in fantasy with the Falcons in 2023. He had career-highs in targets and yards. Smith finished TE17 overall in fantasy as the backup tight end in Atlanta. Smith hasn’t been a high touchdown player but has one season where he finished with eight in 2020 with the Titans.
The Dolphins haven’t utilized the tight end position since Mike McDaniel became the head coach. His tight ends have finished no higher than TE23 in his 2 years in Miami. The starting tight end of the last 2 seasons have combined for 95 targets with minimal production. Jonny Smith has his work cut out for him on the Dolphins. They already have two elite pass catchers who will see over 100 targets. Smith will have to fight with Beckham for that third pass catcher in the offense. Let’s not forget the Dolphins have an elite backfield that can be a significant threat in the passing game.
The Dolphins offense seemed pass-heavy, but they were only ranked 12th in pass rate, which was over expected. Smith may sometimes have some big games, but they won’t be consistent. Smith’s TE17 finish last year is what you should expect at best for his fantasy value. He has TE2 value off the bench, but I wouldn’t use him as your starting tight end.
The Reserves
The tight end position will likely fade away if Smith isn’t healthy. Durham Smthye has shown us that his best ability is blocking. He was TE36 overall last year on 42 targets. They also have an undrafted 2023 player in Julian Hill. He is a smaller school player who is still more of a project. If Smith isn’t healthy, I could see Hill being the guy in the passing game. Neither is fantasy-worthy in 2024.
Thank you for reading! For further fantasy advice, hit me up on X @CoachStevenP or on the Dynasty Nerds Discord! My content is aimed for those in the #NerdHerd wanting easily-digestible information to help them win a dynasty championship.
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One Response
Great write up