Hey nerds! The 2024 NFL season is almost upon us, and @dynastydadmike is here to cover the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Dynasty Nerds 2024 Fantasy Forecast series. Jacksonville finished second in the AFC South with a 9-8 record, ending their 2023 campaign by losing a “win and get in” playoff scenario against their division rival Tennessee Titans. In this article, we will focus on some key additions and subtractions to the roster and how they affect the Jags’ 2024 NFL season.
Quarterbacks
Let’s start at the quarterback position, where Trevor Lawrence had a fantasy regression as he finished as QB13. That didn’t stop Jacksonville from signing Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract extension, including $142 million guaranteed, tying him with Joe Burrow as the highest-paid player in NFL history. Clearly, Jacksonville believes that Lawrence is the answer at the position.
While Lawrence did have a disappointing season, let us not forget that he battled injuries for most of the season while only missing one game. Lawrence goes into 2024 healthy and looking to prove the doubters wrong. I look for Lawrence to bounce back in a big way, and I would be buying him in dynasty leagues as I view him as a top-eight dynasty quarterback moving forward.
Jacksonville also traded for Mac Jones in the offseason with the New England Patriots but did not pick up his fifth-year option. I feel this is more of a move to solidify Jacksonville’s backup position, but if you are a Jones owner, I would use this as a possible selling opportunity.
Running Backs
The 2023 Jacksonville rushing attack finished 24th in the league with 1,646 yards on the ground. Nearly 62 percent of those rushing yards came from Travis Etienne. Etienne finished the year with 1,008 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, 58 receptions, 476 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. Outside of the rushing yards, all were career highs for Etienne. Those numbers helped him finish as the RB3 overall on the season. I expect 2024 to produce a similar fantasy output which should result in another RB1 season.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is on record that treating Etienne as a workhorse back is “not the recipe” he prefers. He may not prefer that, but it may be the only option as early offseason reports have not been glowing for second-year back Tank Bigsby. This is a situation to monitor going into training camp, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jacksonville add a running back to the room.
A name to stash away and possibly snag onto your dynasty rosters is fifth-round rookie Keilan Robinson. If Bigsby continues to struggle, Robinson could be in line to take some of the workload off Etienne’s shoulders.
Wide Receivers
A key departure from the Jaguars roster was wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. However, the Jaguars addressed the position heavily in the offseason, signing former Bills receiver Gabe Davis and using their first-round selection to draft Brian Thomas Jr. (BTJ).
Thomas led the entire FBS with 17 touchdowns and posted a 68-reception 1,177-yard season for the LSU Tigers before being selected with the 23rd pick in the first round. Thomas is a deep threat for Trevor Lawrence. His 6’3″ frame allows for a giant catch radius. BTJ is a great target in the late first round of your rookie drafts.
Free agent signee Gabe Davis will also provide Lawrence with another weapon. One knock on Davis in the fantasy community was his inconsistency. His boom-or-bust fantasy potential still exists, which makes me leery of relying on Davis as a fantasy option.
A name often forgotten about with the Jaguars with all of their offseason moves is Christian Kirk. But let us not forget that Kirk consistently produced double-digit fantasy performances before getting injured, and in 2023, Kirk finished as WR11 overall. In 2024, he could easily finish as the top wide receiver in fantasy points in this offense. I would negotiate with the Kirk owner and see what it would take to acquire him, as the owner may view him as a “sell” due to Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis coming to town.
A name to stash away from the wide receiver room is Parker Washington. He has received positive reports from his teammates and coaching staff so far. Depending on your league settings, you may be able to acquire Washington and stash him on your taxi squad as he goes into his sophomore season.
Tight Ends
Regarding the tight end to own in Jacksonville, it’s Evan Engram. He led the team in targets (143) and finished the season with career highs in receptions (114) and receiving yards (963). Those numbers are going to be hard to reproduce given the offseason additions by the Jaguars, but I still consider Engram to be a low-end TE1.
If you have some depth at the position, I would use Engram’s 2023 season (where he finished as the TE2 overall) as a selling opportunity, especially in tight-end premium formats.
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