Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds will be talking about every NFL team and breaking down the players on that team. We will talk about their value for the upcoming season and give dynasty advice on what you should do with that player. Here’s how the 2024 season is shaping up for the Houston Texans.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud
The 2023 fantasy football darling, quarterback C.J. Stroud, is ready to catapult himself into the top echelon of quarterbacks with a strong sophomore season. As a rookie, Stroud finished with 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and only five interceptions, so the sky’s the limit.
It was expected that Stroud would become a solid QB, but not many saw his breakout coming so quickly. After leading the Houston Texans to an AFC South divisional title and a playoff win, it’s safe to say that Stroud is here to stay.
For your dynasty roster, your QB spot is locked down for the next eight-plus years with Stroud as he is one of the best building blocks you could have. You would be hard-pressed to find a trade package worth moving him, so don’t overthink it.
It isn’t out of the question for Stroud to be a top-five dynasty QB before the season’s end. He could be joining Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon
Even after enjoying a strong season from Devin Singletary, the Texans decided they wanted a long-term solution like Joe Mixon. After playing 7 seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals, Mixon enters his age-28 season with Houston as he looks to replicate last year’s RB6 overall finish.
While recording 18 carries within the five-yard line last year, Mixon feasted in Cincy, finding the end zone 12 total times (9 rushing). The Houston Texans have a better offensive line unit than the Bengals do, so Joe Mixon could be in line for another 1,000-yard rushing season.
Mixon’s biggest concern is his health, and after suffering an early injury, questions about his durability remain. Plus, running backs are not the most trustworthy when they reach age 28 and older, so buyer beware.
Dameon Pierce
It was all the way back in 2022 when Dameon Pierce impressed as a rookie for the Texans, recording over 1,000 total yards and 4 TDs. But heading into his third season, there are more questions than answers surrounding Pierce.
After adding Cam Akers to the RB2 battle, Pierce won’t have anything promised to him in 2024. A security blanket for an older running back, combined with a proven track record, makes Pierce an under-the-radar target on the cheap for your dynasty roster.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins
Nico Collins‘s breakout performance (80 receptions, 1,297 yards, 8 touchdowns) last season made him Stroud’s favorite target. Heading into his fourth season, Collins may have some company in the receiver room, but he will keep hold of the Houston WR1 role.
Finishing as the overall WR12, Collins found himself in rare company last season. Even though he may see a dip in workload with more mouths to feed, expect Collins to lead the Houston Texans’ passing attack.
Stefon Diggs
The big offseason acquisition for the Houston Texans was trading for Stefon Diggs, who now joins a crowded receiver room. The key to keeping Diggs happy (a concern dating back to both Minnesota and Buffalo) is getting him settled in the pecking order with C.J. Stroud.
Stefon Diggs joins a group that won’t necessarily need a 1,000-yard season from the former Terrapin, but could easily see him getting there. With Collins’ breakout and set up for a strong ‘24 season, what will Diggs’ role look like?
CJ Stroud and Stefon Diggs after practice getting work in. pic.twitter.com/VQfOqnInd6
— DJ Bien-Aime (@Djbienaime) July 19, 2024
For dynasty, it remains to be seen how Stroud will distribute targets, although it’s a good guess that Diggs will see a downtick from his 29.5 percent target share. That, in turn, dictates a cheaper value for Diggs, whether you want to acquire or move on from him.
His role is still to be determined, but expecting a mid-WR2 value would be a safe point to start with.
Tank Dell
Tank Dell‘s hot rookie season ended early as a December leg injury held him to only 11 games. The former Houston Cougar was a much-needed spark plug for the Houston Texans’ offense after immediately developing a relationship with Stroud.
Coming off of his December leg injury and injuries suffered in an offseason shooting (not his fault), Dell looks to re-establish himself in the passing attack. Competing with Collins and Diggs will force Dell to optimize his touches, but Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik will still look to incorporate Dell often.
Tank Dell won’t be much cheaper this offseason as the market has over-corrected after Collins’ breakout and the Diggs addition. Dell is a smash addition as a young wideout to your roster, especially since Stefon Diggs might not be there for the long haul.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz enters 2024 as a bit of a forgotten option after finishing top-12 in most receiving stats. He earned 88 targets, 2nd-most behind Collins on the Houston Texans, and finished as the TE10 overall last season.
Schultz’s strong season earned him a three-year contract this offseason, locking down one of Stroud’s comfort targets. While he may be counted on less in the passing game, Schultz should see high-TE2 work in a strong offense.
While likely taking a step back, Schultz should still be seen as a weekly starter, albeit with a lower ceiling. If your roster needs a tight end, Schultz would be a solid, cost-effective option to consider.
Backups
Everyone wants Brevin Jordan to be fantasy relevant, and he has flashed enough to keep his followers entertained. But only earning 21 targets last season doesn’t paint the rosiest outlook for Jordan heading into the 2024 season.
Cade Stover was selected no. 123 overall in April’s NFL Draft, and he enters a crowded situation with a murky workload. Stover is a solid athlete, but his role doesn’t bode well for any fantasy relevance outside of an injury (or three).
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