Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds will be talking about every NFL team and breaking down the players on that team. We will talk about their value for the upcoming season and give dynasty advice on what you should do with that player if so.
The QB Battle
Bo Nix
One way or another, Nix will start games for the Broncos in 2024. Sean Payton doesn’t have much time to let Nix sit and learn to be an NFL player. Nix was already somewhat the most pro-ready quarterback in this draft, with 61 career starts in college. He stepped up during this time in Oregon, showing accuracy and athletic ability. Nix fits the type of quarterback that Sean Payton wants to have in his offense. He wants an intelligent player who can throw the ball quickly. Nix was one of the best college quarterbacks to get the ball out of his hands after the snap. The short, quick passing offense was the perfect spot for Nix to thrive.
It’s tough to judge how Nix is going to do in 2024. The offense doesn’t offer a ton of talent. He has an aging WR1 in Courtland Sutton and a lot of WR3s who will end up being WR2s for this offense. I expect this offense to run often and get into third and short situations, allowing Nix to get out quick passes. I do not expect, with limited talent for Nix, to have a magical rookie season. He is best as a QB3 for your team who could help fill in for a week. I think Nix could be good for a contender or rebuilder. He should be useable for bye weeks due to his rushing ability, but he will likely take a jump in 2025 rather than 2024.
Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson
I’d be shocked if Nix doesn’t start week one. The only other quarterback I could see is Stidham, a team veteran. Stidham has mostly been a backup in his career, but he has gotten opportunities to show off some of his talent over the last two years. He has played the last two regular season games in 2022 and 2023. He averaged 270 yards and a touchdown and interception per game. There is a chance Stidham could start week one just by knowing the offense longer and not screwing up training camp. He would likely be a QB3 with a short leash in this Broncos offense. If Zach Wilson had to start a game for the Broncos, things would have gone terribly for Denver in 2024.
Javonte Williams – RB1
The RB1 for this Broncos team should be Williams. The issue for Williams is that Sean Payton has no ties to him and personally brought every other running back into this backfield. He played the whole season, coming off a torn MCL and ACL from the 2022 season. He still managed to finish as an RB3 with that and dealt with a hip pointer injury mid-season.
Williams is another year removed from that bad injury and should be healthy going into the 2024 season. He would play better once he got his first double-digit fantasy finish in week seven. From week seven forward, he was RB22 for the rest of the season. Williams continues to show a receiving ability with 50 targets in two of three seasons, but we could see a drop in targets with Russell Wilson out of town.
You have to hope that the inefficiency in 2023 was only due to the injuries in 2022. Williams’ rookie season showed promise with the 21st PPF grade, and he was 19th in yards per carry. He will not be a workhorse back in Sean Payton’s offense. He will need to prove he belongs in that rotation. Williams needs to get back to his pre-injury days to show some upside. He is an RB3 with little upside in a crowded backfield. The good thing is that Williams has a great offensive line and will get the best shot as the starter. He is a better sell than buy in Dynasty, as I don’t see him being more than a floor flex option in fantasy football.
The Backup Battle
Samaje Perine
There could be as many as four running backs fighting for the starting job, but definitely for the backup job to Williams. Perine is currently second in line for the position. He is that veteran back who can do it all. He runs well, is a solid blocker, and is a threat in the passing game. Perine has had back-to-back seasons of 50-plus targets. He would have a few games of solid RB3 value for some weeks. His receiving role is what kept him relevant, especially for PPR leagues. He is 29 years old and could be a cap casualty if some younger backs show promise for the offense. He is a depth piece for a team in a PPR league. He could be the backup, have a few decent weeks, or get cut to a new team.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Second-year running back McLaughlin is also looking to compete for the backup job to Williams. Mclaughlin was an undrafted rookie who made the 2023 roster after a great training camp. He had a three-game stretch from week four to six, producing 235 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. After that stretch, his snap share would drop for the remainder of the season. McLaughlin flashed, ranked second in YPC, and fourth in runs over ten-plus yards. He had better rushing grades on PFF than Williams and Perine. He has been standing out in mini-camps and being talked up a lot by coaches. McLaughlin should be locked in for making the team and have a role in this offense. He would need Perine to get cut, but Mclaughlin could have a real RB4 value or better in 2024. He is a good buy-low option in 2024.
Audric Estime
We also have fifth-round rookie Estime, who is the bruiser back for this offense. Estime brings in a different style to the position with strength and power. Estime thrives on breaking tackles or running over defenders. He is a good pass blocker, which may get him a role in the passing game. He is an underrated receiver that wasn’t shown much in college. Estime could easily step in as the early-downs back if something happened to Williams. Due to his size, he’ll likely get a few red-zone carries. I don’t see him making much of an impact in 2024 unless something happens to Williams.
Blake Watson
Watson, the undrafted rookie from the 2024 NFL draft, is trying to make the roster. Coming from a few smaller schools, Watson is one rookie I’m watching in preseason. Watson has the burst and lateral quickness to make big plays. He’ll likely try to beat out McLaughlin for playing time, but that won’t happen. Watson’s best shot is playing special teams as a returner for the 2024 season. This backfield is a hot mess, and we could see a three-headed committee that no one wants for fantasy in 2024.
Courtland Sutton – WR1
The Broncos WR1 is veteran Sutton. He has had a decent career, with 700 yards in five of six seasons. In 2023, he had one of his best fantasy seasons since 2019. He would finish with 772 yards and ten touchdowns. Sutton finished as a low-end WR3 in most fantasy formats. He made the most of his role on the offense as the primary red zone target, as he ranked sixth in red zone targets among receivers. Now that Jerry Jeudy is gone, Sutton could step up even more in this Broncos offense. In games where Jeudy didn’t play, Sutton would average six receptions on eight targets for 85 yards. Sutton would see a jump in targets while performing well.
Sutton has never been a target hog on the Broncos offense. He has under 110 targets in five of his six seasons, playing more than 15 games. Outside of this past season, Sutton came into 2023 with only 14 touchdowns. The 2024 season seems like a year where Sutton could return to his 2019 form, where he finished with 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. Outside of Sutton, there is no second option at the moment that will compete for targets. Sutton must work with a rookie quarterback, which could be either great or bad. Sometimes, rookie quarterbacks heavily target their WR1, and sometimes, the timing could be off the whole year.
It will be interesting to see how Sutton feels about his contract since he skipped OTAs but came to mini-camp. He wants a new deal, but could that motivate him or make him stubborn on the field? As long as Sutton is healthy, he should have a shot to finish as a borderline WR3. He is an exemplary receiver for a contending team coming off the bench to provide a floor play as a flex option.
Marvin Mims – WR2
A lot of eyes will be on Mims in 2024. He was a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Mims was a part-time offensive player last year and a key Pro Bowl returnman. Mims got a two-game stretch where he made up half of his production. In weeks two and three, he had 186 receiving yards and two total touchdowns. Coming out of college, Mims was lightning fast and had a 19.5 YPC that should translate as a deep threat or YAC receiver. The Broncos seem high on Mims to return value in 2024. Outside of Sutton, there is no clear WR2 on the team.
Mims flashed as that deep threat in 2023. Half of his targets were 20-plus yards, and his ADOT ranked 11th among qualifying receivers. Mims should see a big target jump, but I am still concerned about this offense. One way or another, Nix will be playing this season and the majority of the games as well. Nix was a low, deep ball thrower but very efficient on the ones he did throw. Mims feels like a high risk but has a high reward if a team is willing to take a chance on him. I can’t imagine this offense being very good under a rookie quarterback. Mims may grow in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect a top-40 season from him. He is better owned by a team that is still rebuilding in fantasy.
Best of the Rest
Josh Reynolds signed a two-year deal to join the Broncos this offseason. Reynolds is coming off a season with the Lions of 608 yards and five touchdowns. He has turned into a reliable receiver for an NFL team. This offense has big openings for who will get targets behind Sutton, and Reynolds has played like a seasoned pro. He would average four receptions for 67 yards in games last year when he saw five-plus targets. He would score three touchdowns in those five games. Reynolds could be worth a bench spot on your roster to see if he can carve out a role in the offense. He will likely finish no higher than a WR5 and a potential bye-week fill-in.
Tim Patrick has been with the team for years, having back-to-back seasons of 700 yards and five touchdowns in 2020/2021. Unfortunately, Patrick has dealt with massive injuries over the last two seasons. He tore his ACL in 2022 and then his Achilles in 2023, forcing him to miss two years of football. Patrick is 30 years old, and things are looking downhill for him. Patrick could bounce back, but that won’t likely happen unless a few injuries occur. He is better left at the end of your bench or on waivers. The team also has Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson, but neither is likely to make an impact on this team.
Troy Franklin will surely be one of the watches at camp. Franklin was an electric prospect to watch on film before the NFL draft. He has elite speed and the NFL size to be a deep-threat player for the Broncos. He also has the speed to produce after the catch, which can be great for fantasy. He is a slimmer rookie who struggles with contested catch situations. Franklin can’t consistently win the ball on catches, and his blocking is poor. He has a connection with potential quarterback Nix, as the two combined for 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns at Oregon. Franklin could impress at camp to give him a starting spot for week one. I think he will likely see more work as the season goes on. He could make an impact during the second half of the season as he progresses. A rebuilding team should buy low for a second-year jump instead of 2024.
The TE Battle
The tight end position is undoubtedly something to monitor during training camp for the upcoming season. The current depth chart includes Adam Trautman, Greg Dulcich, and Lucas Krull. Trautman may be considered the starter due to his blocking ability, but this past season, he was horrible. He was in the bottom two in run and pass blocking among tight ends. Trautman has never been much of a receiving threat in the NFL, with under 300 yards in any of his four years. He knows Sean Payton’s offense but likely won’t have much of a fantasy role.
Lucas Krull has been getting his name buzzed around mini-camps as a player ready to step up. Krull went undrafted in the 2022 NFL draft. He is a big 6’6″, 260 lb. tight end with the athletic ability to be a receiving threat in the offense. Sean Payton has already said Krull will be someone to know soon. He may need an injury to occur before he gets a chance. He’ll likely have to wait for Dulcich to get hurt or not produce before getting a chance in this offense. Unless he wins out in training camp, he could have a deep sleeper appeal for the position. He is likely on waivers but is a tight end to keep your eyes on in August. He isn’t someone I’d expect to be relevant in 2024, but I won’t be surprised.
The unknowns continue in this position with Dulcich. After dealing with injuries, the young tight end looks to be in for a rebound season. The injuries are a significant concern since they are similar injuries. He has dealt with a thigh/hamstring injury over his two-year career. Dulcich missed 22 career games in his two years in the NFL due to the same issue. His injury alone raises concerns about his ability to produce in fantasy for 2024. That is why Krull could be a deep sleeper. During Dulcich’s rookie season, he would play from week six to week 16. He was TE10 during that timeframe. He would have over 40 yards in half of his games.
Dulcich was an athletic tight end coming into the league who played like a wide receiver. Sean Payton didn’t pick Dulcich, so he may have a short leash to produce. I think, at best, you’ll be looking at a TE2 with some upside, but he also comes with a significant risk for a team. As a contender, I wouldn’t want to trust Dulcich to produce in 2024.
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