Hey nerds! The 2024 NFL season is almost upon us, and your boy is back to cover the Buffalo Bills in the Dynasty Nerds Fantasy Forecast series. The Buffalo Bills finished 11-6 and won their 4th consecutive AFC East division title. Unfortunately, also, for the fourth time during this time frame, the Bills were eliminated from the playoffs. In the AFC Divisional round, Buffalo was eliminated by Kansas City which marked the third time in four years the Chiefs have sent Buffalo home.
The Buffalo Bills underwent a major roster overhaul in the offseason. In this article, we will highlight some key additions and subtractions to the roster and how those moves affect the Bills’ 2024 NFL season.
Quarterbacks
The quarterback position is Josh Allen’s without a shadow of a doubt. Allen is either the first or second overall pick in most Superflex dynasty start-up drafts, and with good reason. Allen has finished as the overall top scorer in three out of the last four seasons. In the season he wasn’t first, he finished second in fantasy scoring.
The 2023 season was no different for Allen. He threw for 4,306 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. He followed that up by rushing for 524 yards and another 15 touchdowns on the ground. The dual-threat element of Allen makes him, without a doubt, a top-three dynasty QB.
One valid area of concern is the departure of Stefon Diggs, who was traded in the offseason to the Houston Texans. I still view Allen as a trade target for my fantasy team, and if I was trying to trade for Allen, I would use Diggs’ departure as a bargaining chip to see if I could get Allen at a lower cost.
Running Backs
Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through the 2023 season after Ken Dorsey’s firing. Under Brady, the Bills seemed to favor utilizing a more balanced attack, taking some of the pressure off of Allen.
The 2023 Buffalo Bills had a formidable rushing attack, ranking 7th overall with 2,212 rushing yards. While Allen contributed heavily to that attack, James Cook led the roster with 1,122 rushing yards but only 2 rushing touchdowns. He also contributed in the passing game, catching 44 passes for 445 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns.
Cook finished the season as RB12 overall. I like that range for him and could see him climb into the top-10 range if his reception total increases. However, one area of concern will always be his limited short-yardage work with Allen likely to pound in a rushing touchdown and fourth-round rookie running back, Ray Davis, in the mix to take away goal-line touches.
Davis is a bruiser-style running back with a 5’8″, 220-lb. frame. Coming out of college, his worry was that he was an older prospect and already had nearly 800 college carries on his resume. Davis landed in a perfect role with the Buffalo Bills and is the perfect complement to Cook. Davis should thrive in this offense, and we should target him in the third round of drafts for those who have not had their rookie drafts.
Wide Receivers
Outside of the Los Angeles Chargers, no team has created more vacated targets than the Buffalo Bills. Over 58 percent of last year’s targets are gone with the absence of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis’ signing in Jacksonville. Even if Buffalo is trying to become a more balanced team, that is a huge target share for the taking. So, where are all those targets going?
The Buffalo Bills addressed vacancies in the wide receiver room by drafting Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman. He is a 6’3″ contested catch-type receiver who will provide Allen with those 50/50 jump ball opportunities that the offense has lacked in the past.
Another place for those targets to land is third-year player Khalil Shakir. He is the lone starting receiver to return to the offense. Shakir finished 2023 with 39 receptions, 611 yards, and 2 touchdowns. I’m looking for those numbers to increase, especially the reception total. Shakir is a great PPR option.
Buffalo also signed free agents Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, and Mack Hollins. The name on that list that intrigues me is Samuel, as he is familiar with Joe Brady’s offense from their time in Carolina together. Samuel saw his best NFL season under Joe Brady, where he caught 77 receptions for 851 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
Tight Ends
In my eyes, the main beneficiary of the vacated targets will be sophomore tight end Dalton Kincaid. “Dalton’s been so good in so many ways. Right away, he’s just a great person with a great disposition. Secondly, his connection with Josh, his understanding of our offense, and his understanding of NFL defenses. He’s gotten off to such a great start,” said head coach Sean McDermott prior to July 24th’s training camp practice.
“The way he handled this offseason, in the spring, he didn’t stop, just in terms of his hunger to grow and get better. That’s hard to find, especially when you come off a year like he had in Year 1. Looking forward to him really continuing to excel,” said McDermott.
At 6’4″ and 240 lbs., Kincaid’s size and speed are a matchup nightmare for defenders. He looks to improve on his rookie season, when he caught 73 receptions, 673 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kincaid should be viewed as a top-three dynasty tight end, and for me personally, he is my TE2 overall, just behind Sam Laporta.
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One Response
Dawson Knox has been solid TE and a solid option in TEP leagues as a backup. He’s was injured bit last year, but could be solid if Kincaid misses anytime.