Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds have been discussing every NFL team and breaking down the players to discuss their value for the upcoming season. We have offered dynasty advice on what you should do with certain players in differing situations. Coach Steven (@CoachStevenP) continues our 32-part series as we near the end with the Baltimore Ravens.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson had a fantastic 2023 season, setting career highs in passing. The new offensive scheme led to more throwing and helped Jackson be more valuable. He had career highs in pass attempts, completions, and passing yards. Jackson also had his most rushing yards since the 2021 season. His accuracy would improve this season compared to the 2022 season. Jackson finished fourth in red zone completion and true completion percentage. He was able to stay healthy for the first time in over two years.
In 2024, Jackson is looking to improve upon another strong passing season. He made strides in the passing game, but the Ravens didn’t give him more weapons in the offense. Jackson will have Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, but he still doesn’t feel that is enough talent for him. Last year, he was able to do a lot with a little, so we shouldn’t be that concerned about the lack of talent. Jackson’s talent on the ground came to make up for anything he wasn’t able to do in the air. He has over 600 rushing yards in all 6 seasons in the league.
Lamar Jackson’s rushing situation is going to be interesting this year. The addition of Derrick Henry should be able to help, but it also hurt his rushing output. Jackson could run for more than 800 yards this season, but his rushing touchdowns could drop from 8. Henry is a beast in the red zone and the team may use him more than past Baltimore Ravens’ running backs. As long as Jackson can stay on the field for 17 games, you should expect him to be another Top-5 fantasy finish in 2024.
Backups
If Jackson were to miss time in 2024, the team would move to long-time journeyman Josh Johnson. Johnson has only had a handful of starts in his long career, and it hasn’t been all that great for fantasy. He has only thrown over 200 passing yards 4 times in his career. If Johnson were to start, he likely won’t be a trusted fantasy quarterback. He would be a QB3 with little upside in fantasy, because he’s lacking a strong corps surrounding him. Devin Leary from Kentucky is an interesting third quarterback who would potentially get a chance to play if Johnson struggles. Neither is likely that great for fantasy options.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is an interesting fantasy player for the 2024 season. He will look to defy the odds of being a 30-year-old running back in fantasy. Henry has been a beast for years as a starting running back. He has had six-straight seasons with double-digit touchdowns. He has had over 1,000 yards in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The issue with Henry is that he is 30 and has a high number of carries in this career. He has led the NFL in carries in four of the last five seasons. Everyone is waiting for Henry’s downfall to begin.
Last year, Henry was a little more inconsistent on a per-game basis. He had six games under six fantasy points, which was frustrating for fantasy owners. He had his lowest yards per carry (YPC) since 2017. His rushing yards per game have dropped each season since 2020, when he averaged only 70 rushing yards per game. Henry is getting a bit of an upgrade on the Baltimore Ravens for his value. His offensive line slightly improves after going from one of the worst to the bottom ten. He is on an offense that allowed Gus Edwards to score 13 rushing touchdowns last year, so there are clear improvements that should help Henry.
Also, outside of the age situation, Henry may miss out on carries if Jackson decides to run with the ball himself. Lamar Jackson historically doesn’t throw the ball too much to his running backs, so Henry could see a drop in his already low targets in his career. Henry’s upside will be his rushing yards since teams will have difficulty covering both Henry and Jackson, allowing one to succeed on plays. I think Henry should be able to get another double-digit touchdown season in the Ravens offense. Henry is a solid low-end RB1 for any contending fantasy team in 2024.
The Battle for RB2
Henry will be the RB1 for this Ravens team, but who backs him up? The Baltimore Ravens have veteran Justice Hill, second-year player Keaton Mitchell, and rookie Rasheen Ali in the mix. The potential sleeper of this group is Hill. He is the most reliable option to play on third down in this offense. He may not be the most talented, but reliability is there. Hill had 39 targets last year and had a solid 4.6 YPC. Hill likely won’t have much standalone value and would need Henry to get hurt to be a usable RB3 in the offense. Those who expect Mitchell or Ali to come in immediately as the backup may have to wait a bit.
We saw the upside that Mitchell has in fantasy football. He had a solid seven-game streak where he was RB24 overall in fantasy. In that stretch, he had over 60 all-purpose yards in 5 of 6 games played. Mitchell is coming off a torn ACL he suffered in Week 15 of last year’s season. There is a strong chance that he will stay on the PUP list to start the season and miss a little time. The good thing for Mitchell is he doesn’t need many touches to break a long one to the house. He is explosive in his talent, and Mitchell will likely stay in his role no matter what happens on the offense. He is a smaller 179-lb. running back who wouldn’t take a big workload and is a boom-bust depth piece at running back.
Rasheen Ali is a deep sleeper for many in the fantasy industry. He is a patient runner with excellent vision. I know he isn’t going to break many tackles, and he had a ball security issue in college. He was overly productive at Marshall and scored plenty of touchdowns in his time. If Ali beats out Justice Hill, he could have some potential as a strong handcuff for the offense. For now, he is a good taxi squad player to stash to see how this offense develops. Ali should make the most of his situation with Mitchell on the PUP list. None of these running backs will likely have standalone value unless Mitchell is a full-go at some point during the season.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers is looking to take a step forward in his development heading into year two. As a rookie, Flowers finished with 858 yards and 5 touchdowns. He would start slow but consistently as a borderline WR3. He was WR37 through 11 games but had only 2 games over 10 fantasy points. When Andrews went down, Flowers jumped to WR24 overall over the final 6 games. He would have 4 of those games with 10-plus fantasy points. Flowers had a high target share as a rookie, with 24 percent. Unfortunately, his ADOT ranked 81st in the league with an 8.4. He was used in the slot often and finished 15th in yards after catch (YAC).
Zay Flowers’ situation improved as the team eliminated some talent with Odell Beckham gone. That leaves Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor to take targets away from Flowers. I don’t expect either one to be a significant threat to Flowers. Flowers should continue to be the WR1 in the offense, but he won’t be the number one pass catcher for the Ravens. That job is still Mark Andrews’. Flowers should improve on his 2023 season with a higher average depth of target (ADOT), but the touchdowns will be lower. Flowers will attempt to do something that hasn’t happened in Jackson’s career: have back-to-back 100-target receivers in the offense.
The increase in passing game should give Flowers six to eight targets per game, but the ceiling is low for him. He is a better floor player in the flex position. If you have Flowers as your WR2, you are likely in trouble. As long as Mark Andrews remains healthy, Flowers’ upside is capped in an offense that could easily run the game as they please. Look for him to finish around a WR3 value in 2024.
Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman is seeing a ton of hype this offseason for a player considered a first-round bust. It’s not all Bateman’s fault as he has dealt with injuries throughout his career. He has missed games in each season of his career. This has led to him only producing 1,167 yards over 3 seasons with just 4 touchdowns. Bateman had a strong start as a rookie with 3 games over 80 yards. Since 2022, he has produced over 60 yards just once. Bateman has had issues catching the ball, with a 50 percent catch rate and under over the last 2 years.
The Ravens coaching staff is crushing over Bateman this offseason as he has shown tremendous growth. It’s hard to imagine him taking big steps in his fourth season. Yes, there is a chance of seeing a target increase to around that 75-target range, but it’s not for sure. Bateman’s likelihood of getting injured is higher than the average player. The offense may throw more, but he is third in line for targets or potentially fourth. I’d sell high on the hype of Bateman and get the most value you can for him. He may be a boom or bust WR4 or WR5 in 2024 at best.
Best of the Rest
The rest of the Baltimore Ravens’ receivers are Nelson Agholor, Devontez Walker, Tylan Wallace, and Deonte Harty. Agholor has been a bust since his days back in Philly. Last year, he finished with 38 yards and 4 touchdowns. He can get some production whenever he sees five-plus targets, but he’ll likely need Bateman to get hurt to be a rosterable player in dynasty for 2024.
Tylan Wallace has been with the team for 3 seasons and has 67 career yards. He is likely going to work on special teams. Deonte Harty is a player I could see having a one-week wonder during the season, but he is 3 years out from his 570-yard seasons with the Saints.
The rookie, “Tez” Walker is interesting. He is a fast receiver who is explosive in his game. He can produce yards after the catch to improve a play. Walker is a big play waiting to happen. He needs to refine his game if he is going to make it to the NFL, but he is an interesting player. Walker is a good taxi squad stash for 2024 to see if his name gets called sometime this year.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews
The Ravens’ no. 1 target should be Mark Andrews in 2024. He has been a letdown in fantasy since his breakout 2021 season with 1,300 yards. He has combined for that amount over his last two seasons. Andrews has missed eight games over his previous two seasons, which could be a mark of why fantasy owners feel let down. Last year, Andrews was solid when he was on the field. From Week 2 to 11, he was TE4 overall during that stretch of games. Based on his per-game average during that stretch, if he had played 17 games, he would have likely finished as TE2 overall on the season.
Andrews is looking healthy through training camp this season, so hopefully, we can get a full 17 games in 2024. He continues to have little competition to be Jackson’s number-one pass catcher. He should be 1 of 2 players to get over 100 targets in this Ravens offense. Andrews has enjoyed a strong target share and is a key weapon in the red zone. He was sixth in red zone targets despite missing seven games. Andrews should continue to be a TE1 in fantasy football as long as he can remain on the field for us to use in starting lineups.
Isaiah Likely
If something happens to Andrews, Isaiah Likely‘s value will skyrocket. Last year, we saw in six games at the end of 2023 that Likely could dominate as a starter. He was TE4 overall from Week 12 to 18. He had 4 of those 6 games with 10-plus fantasy points. Likely grew as a tight end, increasing his inline percentage (of plays) and lowering his slot percentage in the offense. This should help Likely get more playing time on the offense. There have been reports of the Ravens using Likely more in the offense. Perhaps the offense needs to use more two-tight end sets because of the lack of depth at receiver.
Unfortunately, things have not been great for Likely in fantasy with Andrews on the field. Last year, he had 9 receptions for 89 yards in the 10 games he played together. Likely has tremendous upside, but he can’t be trusted as anything more than a high-end handcuff as a tight end starter. Andrews has dealt with injuries over the last few years, so Likely could have a chance to start at some time in 2024. Until then, he is an excellent bench player for dynasty rosters.
Thank you for reading! For further fantasy advice, contact me on X @CoachStevenP or on the Dynasty Nerds Discord! My content is aimed at those in the #NerdHerd who want easily digestible information to help them win a dynasty championship.
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