2024 Dynasty Free Agent Preview – Wide Receivers

Last Season Wide Receivers

The 2023 free agency class for receivers was pitiful, with Juju Smith-Shuster and Jakobi Meyers leading the way. If you bought into players like Adam Thielen, Jakobi Meyers, and Noah Brown before free agency, you would have made out on the value in trades. Meyers may have cost you the most due to his status in dynasty, but he provided the numbers worth trading for. Trading for Juju was a bad move for many dynasty owners, especially if you did it before free agency. If you were a smart owner, trading away Allen Lazard due to the rumor that he would land with the Jets, you made out great. Even once DeAndre Hopkins got released, you’d have to be happy getting decent value for a player who seems to be fading despite decent play with the Titans. Investing in any 2023 free-agent receivers would not have been a great move for dynasty.

Stars

Mike Evans

As it sits right now, Mike Evans is a free agent for the first time in his career. The Bucs and Evans had a soft deadline to re-sign, but they have long passed. While Evans could still be back in Tampa, it may not be until free agency starts. Evans has had a heck of a career in the NFL and fantasy. He has ten straight 1000-yard seasons, tied for the second most in NFL history. He has been a touchdown machine the last four seasons, with double digits in three. He had his best season since 2018, with 1200 yards and 13 touchdowns this past year. Evans was 1st in air yards and deep targets. He had 12 of his 17 games over ten fantasy points.

Evans is in a league of his own as he is the only receiver in the modern era to go ten straight seasons to start his career with 1000 yards each season. Evans needs to be considered one of our all-time great receivers. As you can see from the trades above, Evans’ trade market is all over the place; as a contending team, if someone allows me to acquire Evans for a second-round pick, that is a bargain for at least 2024. Ideally, if he returns to the Bucs, I’d feel great about making those trades now for Evans.

If Evans lands in situations like the Ravens or Chiefs, his price will skyrocket, and you’ll wish you bought him before free agency. Evans could also follow the money with teams like the Titans or the Patriots, which could hurt Evans’ value but make giving up a second a reasonable trade. The Panthers with Dave Canales would make sense since he helped Evans get his best season in years. Evans is a buy-in dynasty right now.

Evans Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – BUY/HOLD

Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. is the best wide receiver on the market overall, even when Tee Higgins was there. Pittman is in his prime years, coming off a career season in targets, receptions, and yards. He was in the top ten in target share, receptions, and YAC. At the same time, we would love to see a bidding war for Pittman; it’s pretty clear that Pittman will return to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard has already said that Pittman will be a Colt in 2024, no matter what. So he’ll likely be tagged if they can’t get a long-term deal done by the franchise tag deadline. The likelihood that Pittman will sign with another team seems low.

In that case, before Pittman gets tagged, we need to look at Pittman’s value. It’s going to be a small window. If we look at the trades above, Pittman is highly valuable in the dynasty world. Giving up a quarterback in Superflex and a young receiver for Pittman shows that he is valuable to owners. Giving up young talent that looks like future stars for Pittman is also high value. Using Pittman to help acquire Amon-Ra St. Brown shows Pittman’s value in the dynasty community. Pittman deserves that high value right now, but what does his future hold?

Pittman is going to have his young quarterback, Anthony Richardson, back. Last year, Pittman was WR26 with Richardson and WR13 with Garnder Minshew at quarterback. Granted, Pittman and Richardson barely played four games with each other. If we take his 17-game pace, he would have produced 94 receptions for 935 yards and four touchdowns. That would put Pittman as a mid-range WR3 value in half-point PPR leagues. Richardson has an arm, but he must make significant improvements this offseason to help Pittman stay consistent. I think Pittman may become more of a boom-or-bust receiver with a low touchdown count. I’d sell off Pittman before he officially rejoins the Colts and get great value for the receiver. I like Pittman, but his situation moving forward may not be as good as it was in 2023.

Pittman Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – BUY/HOLD

Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley is hitting free agency after an up-and-down 2023 season with the Jaguars. Ridley returned to the field in 2023 for the first time in over a year after suspension. Despite a very boom or bust season, Ridley would finish with 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. He was used as a downfield threat, being 8th in air yards and third in red zone targets. Returning to the Jaguars is still possible since the team must give up a pick. If the Jaguars re-sign Ridley, they would have to give the Falcons a second-round pick. They must give up a third-round pick if they tag or let him go. It may be worth the team paying Ridley a three-year contract to bring him back to the team. If Ridley walks, teams like the Chiefs, Bears, Titans, and Panthers could be in the market for his services.

Ridley is valued differently throughout dynasty leagues. I’ve seen owners asking for a second-round pick to acquire Ridley in my leagues. Ridley seems to be valued as a late first/early second-round pick in the trades above. I’d consider taking on Ridley in the first trade. He could have another great season, but he is creeping into his 30s for being a player with only one dominant season. You may have to wait until he signs and see what value you can get for him. If an owner is willing to give you Ridley for a second, that isn’t a bad deal for a contending team.

Ridley Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – HOLD

Good WR2s

Gabe Davis is hitting free agency for the first time in his career. It may have come at no better time. Fantasy owners were chasing his magical 2021 playoff run for fantasy, but it has never been that great. Last season, he managed five games over 18-plus points. In the other 12 games, he combined for 40 points. The Bills have called him their most important blocking receiver on the team. It’s not certain that Davis will be back in Buffalo in 2024, so a new team could be in his cards. Due to his blocking ability alone, he will be on a team in 2024. Davis could easily go to a situation where he sees more targets. If Davis can get closer to 100 targets, there could be more upside for his dynasty value. Based on trades involving him, Davis isn’t going to cost much. If he is going for a third-round pick, that is solid value for a player who could still see some upside.

Davis Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – BUY/HOLD

Darnell Mooney is a few years away from his breakout 2021 season. Over the last two seasons, Mooney has produced 907 total yards. Mooney has dealt with injuries for his last two seasons, especially in 2022. He has also been part of an offense that has ranked in the bottom six in passing yards per game the previous two years. Adding DJ Moore and the ascension of Cole Kmet has hurt Mooney’s target share over the years. Mooney could still land back with the Bears, but other teams like the Falcons or Jets could also use his services. Mooney has the talent to be a decent WR2 or better WR3 for an NFL team, but he likely won’t return to his 2021 form. He is already 27 years old. I don’t feel like his upside is like Gabe Davis to give up a 3rd round pick right now. He is better off as a hold option but not a buy.

Mooney Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – HOLD & SEE

Some may think Marquise Brown should be a tier-one receiver, but looking at his career, he isn’t. Brown has had one season of over 800 yards. His last two years in Arizona have combined 1300 yards and seven touchdowns. He has dealt with injuries throughout his career, and I’ll be 27 at the start of the season. Brown has gone through two stretches with the Cardinals, where he has been a top-15 receiver in fantasy. Fantasy owners need receivers who can perform for an entire season. After week six of 2023, he was WR54 for the rest of the year. Marquise Brown still holds decent value, so trading him away now makes more sense. I’d rather have a second in a good draft class or Jameson Williams over Brown. Unless Brown lands with KC, I don’t see his value growing to the point where he will eventually get you a first-round pick. If he lands back with the Cardinals or goes to the Ravens or Panthers, his value may worsen.

Brown Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – SELL

Tyler Boyd has been a solid slot receiver for eight years. Boyd is hitting 30 years old in 2024, a long way from his 2018/2019 seasons, where he went over 1000 yards. Since 2019, his yardage has fallen. He had his worst yards, YPR, and touchdowns since 2017. He could only get over ten fantasy points three times, and two of those times were due to touchdowns. There are rumors that Boyd would go to Pittsburgh, but the Jets, Falcons, or Jaguars could use a slot guy. Boyd in trades isn’t getting you that much standalone value. He is mainly being used as thrown-in pieces right now. I’d either hold and see where he lands. You could buy him, but I don’t see much upside for the 30-year-old receiver to sit on your bench.

Boyd Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – HOLD

Curtis Samuel is hitting free agency as a 28-year-old hybrid receiver/running back. Samuel had a decent career with the Commanders, with 600 yards in two of three seasons. In 2023, he had stretches where he was a solid flex option in fantasy football. He is another slot receiver who is a bit younger than Tyler Boyd. I see him potentially re-signing from the team since, when he is healthy, he has been a big part of the offense. I think places like the Falcons and Bengals could be options that likely won’t cost too much money. Samuel could be a solid bye-week replacement in fantasy football. Based on the trades, he feels like a cheap option or a throw-in piece right now. You could buy now, but waiting to see where he lands doesn’t hurt.

Samuel Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – BUY/HOLD

KJ Osborn will get to explore free agency, but I am not sure what type of interest he will receive. I think there is still interest in him returning to the Vikings. It would be nice to see him land somewhere he could be the second or third option, but he may want too much money for a team to invest with a good draft class. He will be 27 years old and has seen his yardage drop yearly since 2021. Osborn has shown flashes in the prior two seasons, with WR16 in the back half of 2021 and WR7 in the back half of 2022. In 2023, he failed to step up with Justin Jefferson on IR as he was WR60 in that span. Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson were featured more than Osborn. I think there could be an 800-yard season in Osborn’s future if he lands in the right situation, but that’s only IF. He is like a hold-and-see or potentially a decent throw-in piece as a buy.

Osborn Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – HOLD/BUY

After a one-year deal with the Texans, Noah Brown is hitting free agency again. Brown has back-to-back seasons of 550 receiving yards. He had two monster games with over 150 receiving yards in the Texans offense. Brown is a big-bodied outside receiver who could return to the Texans if they want to move off Bob Woods. He offers blocking so that a team will likely sign him. He is older, sitting at 28 years old. Brown isn’t likely to outproduce his 2023 numbers moving forward unless he does stay with Houston. He is a hold-and-see and could then be a sell or even a buy, depending on what team he lands with. There haven’t been any trades involving Brown in 2024 so far. He will likely only cost a fourth, but I’d rather wait to see where he lands.

Brown Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – HOLD & SEE

Odell Beckham Jr. hits free agency, but the value of his name has somehow held up for many years. Over his last four seasons in the league, he has 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns. He did miss the 2022 season but is not the same player he was in New York. In 2023, Odell did go through a five-game stretch where he was WR23, but that was the ceiling for him at this point of his career. Odell isn’t being thrown around in any trades so far in 2024. I can’t see him being bought by many dynasty owners, and why should you? He may wait for a contending team to need a receiver to shoot for one last championship like Julio Jones did. He is a hold, and as soon as he lands in a spot, then sell him off for a third-round pick.

Beckham Jr, Trade Market Pre-Free Agency – HOLD THEN SELL

Best of the Rest

In this last tier are players who likely aren’t top three receivers on many teams moving forward. They are average or aging players or have consistently lost their opportunity within an offense. A few guys could still be a WR4 for a team and see some production. Kendrick Bourne, DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, and Nelson Agholor are older players who could be veteran presence for a team. They are likely to end up bench-type players. Julio Jones is way past his prime and likely will wait for a contending team to join again. Donovan Peoples-Jones had a disappointing season after a solid 2022 year. I want to buy him before he finds a home in 2024. If Quez Watkins finds a new home away from the Eagles, he would be an interesting throw-in piece to get in a trade. Most of these receivers are generally the last players on a bench, with the new group of receivers coming into the league.

Buy LOW LOW – DPJ & Quez Watkins, Josh Reynolds