Many variables go into a successful Fantasy Football season. Preparing well, staying engaged, and following general best practices are important, but one basic strategy will always steer you in the right direction. Roster talented players from the best offenses. It sounds simple, but the tricky part is correctly identifying players with the right mix of skills and ample opportunity to thrive in their offense. We must look in-depth at each team’s roster, offensive philosophy, coaching tendencies, context, and more.
Welcome to the next installment of our Fantasy Forecast series for 2023. We are going through all 32 teams in detail to help you find the right players to invest in so you can win your league. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a ton of hype and are one of the more exciting offenses to build around this year. Let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Entering his third season, the former first-overall pick has been a fantasy darling this offseason, and with good reason. It’s incredible what can happen to a quarterback like Lawrence when he goes from the most dysfunctional team in the league during his rookie season to an offensive guru coach like Doug Pederson in year two. Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions last season while leading the Jaguars to an exciting playoff run. That more than doubled his touchdown total from his rookie season (12). He also saw a big improvement in completion percentage (66.3%) compared to his rookie year (59.6%).
The improvement in the numbers last year could also be seen through the eye test of watching the Jaguars ascend as a team. They finished first in the AFC South, gave us an exciting playoff comeback win over the Chargers, and suffered a narrow loss in a really fun matchup against the Super Bowl champs in Kansas City. What stuck out to me the most from their playoff run was how Lawrence looked like he belonged with elite-tier quarterbacks like Mahomes and Herbert. The questions surrounding Lawrence being able to live up to his #1 pick status began to disappear under the guidance of Pederson.
Lawrence is currently ranked sixth overall in our Dynasty PPR QB Consensus Ranks. He is being drafted as the QB6 in our latest Nerds ADP. His stock is rising, and he is the focal point for why there is so much optimism around the Jaguars this year. Lawrence has a talented cast around him, but his standalone talent is clear. This team will go as far as Lawrence wants; the sky is the limit.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr.
In what was essentially his rookie campaign last season, Etienne followed a similar path to his quarterback and former Clemson teammate, becoming the player we all knew he was capable of being. 2022 was a big win for Jags fans in many ways, and seeing the Lawrence/Etienne duo live up to their first-round hype was high on the list. Recovering from a season-ending injury, Etienne rushed for 1,125 yards and five touchdowns with 35 receptions for 316 yards. He logged 12.1 FPTS/G, good for 24th among running backs in PPR.
Etienne has already been getting a lot of training camp buzz around his receiving ability. As he adds to his arsenal, it’s no surprise he’s getting so much love going into this year. Etienne is currently ranked 11th overall in our Dynasty PPR RB Consensus Ranks. He is being drafted as the RB8 in our latest Nerds ADP. As he puts it all together, I won’t be shocked if he finishes this season top 10 in FPTS/G for running backs. It’s beautiful to see Etienne thrive in the NFL, and I want every share of him I can get in fantasy.
Tank Bigsby/JaMycal Hasty/D’Ernest Johnson/Snoop Conner
How do you not love a running back nicknamed “Tank”? A former Auburn standout and a third-round pick of Jacksonville in the 2023 draft, Tank Bigsby has earned the hype. The rookie is already looking like the sure-fire backup and will likely have a key role in the Jaguars’ offense this season alongside Etienne. He is someone to get excited about for dynasty purposes.
The rest of the Jaguars’ backfield is filled with talent, but no one I’m concerned will significantly eat into the roles of Etienne and Bigsby, barring an injury. Maybe it’s the Browns fan in me, but I have my eye on D’Ernest Johnson. Hasty and Conner have been reliable for the Jags, but all three are speculative players to watch. It will be interesting to see which of these three running backs carves out a role should an injury occur. My money would be on Johnson being the popular waiver add in that scenario, but let’s hope we never have to cross that bridge.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley
Ridley is one of the more equally polarizing and hyped names in fantasy, yet another Jaguars player whose stock is on the rise. For a myriad of reasons, all of which are well documented, and we don’t need to dissect here, we haven’t seen Ridley play a lot of football in the last several years. The last meaningful season he played was for the Falcons in 2020. That year Ridley logged 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns on 90 receptions. Just as he started producing as an elite-level wide receiver, he saw limited action in 2021 (five games) and missed all of 2022.
So why the hype for the former 2018 first-round pick going into this season? Ridley still possesses an elite wide receiver skill set, and based on the training camp scuttlebutt so far, he has been dazzling with his play again. When you combine Ridley’s talent with having the ascendant Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback, it’s no wonder many are predicting a big bounce-back season. I would include myself in that camp. Everything has lined up just right for Ridley to break out again and be a big-time asset for any fantasy team lucky to have him on the roster.
Christian Kirk
Before the addition of Ridley as the WR1, Kirk was WR1 in this offense and had an incredible 2022 campaign. A favorite target of Lawrence, Kirk logged 1,108 yards, eight touchdowns, and 84 receptions on a staggering 133 targets. Expectations were not high for Kirk as a new WR1 going into his first year with the Jaguars after spending four seasons in Arizona. Finishing as the WR12 in overall fantasy points last year, Kirk shattered expectations and played a key role in the Jaguars’ success.
He will have to contend with Ridley for targets, but the chemistry he developed with Lawrence isn’t going anywhere. Kirk is being drafted as the WR38, according to our Nerds ADP. I wouldn’t be shocked if he outperformed that and finished as a top 30 WR this year as part of this exciting Jaguars offense.
Zay Jones
Jones had arguably the best season of his career with Jacksonville in 2022. Jones logged 823 receiving yards, five touchdowns, and 82 receptions on 121 targets. His previous career high in receptions was 56 with Buffalo in 2018. Last season, we saw Jones go from a borderline fantasy option who lived on the waiver wire most of his career to a reliable WR3 who started having boom weeks seemingly out of nowhere. Rostering Jones was a big reason I succeeded in a few leagues last season. I doubt he’ll see 121 targets again, but like Kirk, he developed excellent chemistry with Lawrence. At a minimum, Jones is a WR3 worth a roster spot since he is showing he is capable of great production in this offense.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram
Another new face in Jacksonville last season who had arguably the best year of his career was longtime Giant Engram finished 2022 with a career-high 73 receptions on 98 targets for 766 yards and four touchdowns. He finished as the TE5 in fantasy points with 10.4 FPTS/G in PPR. Engram was a consistent presence on offense for the Jags and regained must-start status in fantasy.
The second-round pick in the 2023 Draft, Brenton Strange, is an interesting player in dynasty formats, but it’s all about Engram this season. I expect Engram to finish as a top 5 TE again and help the Jaguars build on their success from last season.
Conclusion
The Jaguars offense is filled with exciting players from top to bottom. Building your fantasy team around the likes of Lawrence, Etienne, Ridley, and Engram will help you win weekly and put you in contention for your league’s championship. There is much to like in Dynasty formats since many of the key pieces on offense are still young in their NFL career. I expect this to be a fun and exciting offense for years to come, and these guys are worth your investment in all formats. Good luck this season!
*All stats from Fantasy Data, unless otherwise noted
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